Does anyone else think COVID-19 is seasonal?

Ted_DN38416 said:
I think its in the name. Its a supplement but not a substitute. Eat well exercise, take your vitamins. You’re going to be healthier and more robust to opportunistic infections and diseases such as corona viruses.
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If you're eating well you don't need to take vitamins do you?
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
If you're eating well you don't need to take vitamins do you?
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You don't need to but if you're eating right, you’re getting the vitamins and nutrients your body needs. If your taking supplements as well to boost and support theses bodily functions and they’ll work better
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
If you're eating well you don't need to take vitamins do you?
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Just to say please buy yourself some vit d c_t_c, we really struggle to get enough sunlight (and it's not high powered sunlight either) in the winter months, even more so with the layers of clothing. The NHS recommend it, it will cost you £9.99 for a year supply, I can send you a link to some good quality stuff if you want.

I have a decent diet, am very active and reasonably young and still take them.
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
If you're eating well you don't need to take vitamins do you?
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Depends what you mean by "eating well." Apparently a large proportion of people in Europe do not eat well enough to get enough vitamin D. According to a study published in the Journal of Endocrinology in 2019:
Vitamin D deficiency is common in Europe and the Middle East. It occurs ... in 30–60% [of the population] in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe ...
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Current vitamin D status in European and Middle East countries
 
Alvez_48 said:
Just to say please buy yourself some vit d c_t_c, we really struggle to get enough sunlight (and it's not high powered sunlight either) in the winter months, even more so with the layers of clothing. The NHS recommend it, it will cost you £9.99 for a year supply, I can send you a link to some good quality stuff if you want.

I have a decent diet, am very active and reasonably young and still take them.
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Just done spot of research and you're correct, it's difficult to get my daily recommended dose of Vit D through diet, particularly as I use sunblock throughout the year.

I eat a lot of oily fish but not enough to get my count up. Same goes for calcium.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
BJ claiming today that COVID will be 'defeated' by Spring next year. Tends to suggest to me it is seasonal.

I think this winter will be the hardest, get through that and the vaccine should be ready by then.
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He said it would be gone in 12 weeks by winter then by Xmas. I wouldn’t be taking him seriously
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
BJ claiming today that COVID will be 'defeated' by Spring next year. Tends to suggest to me it is seasonal.

I think this winter will be the hardest, get through that and the vaccine should be ready by then.
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The flu doesn't disappear in Spring.
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
Just done spot of research and you're correct, it's difficult to get my daily recommended dose of Vit D through diet, particularly as I use sunblock throughout the year.

I eat a lot of oily fish but not enough to get my count up. Same goes for calcium.
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CTC give turmeric, glucosamine sulphate, B12, D3 and cod liver oil a go.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Sorry, don't get your point? If you're pointing out that seasonal virus' don't disappear entirely in the warmer months, then I get that?
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We're still in the first transmission stage. A virus doesn't become seasonal until herd immunity makes seasonal changes the overriding factor. Not all new viruses become seasonal and we won't find out for some time if it will. A good article here
 
bear66 said:
We're still in the first transmission stage. A virus doesn't become seasonal until herd immunity makes seasonal changes the overriding factor. Not all new viruses become seasonal and we won't find out for some time if it will. A good article here
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Interesting and everything I've read points to the fact that ultimately its too early to tell whether its seasonal or not, but given everything I've seen so far I'd say there is a high likelihood it is.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Interesting and everything I've read points to the fact that ultimately its too early to tell whether its seasonal or not, but given everything I've seen so far I'd say there is a high likelihood it is.
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Not every (contagious) virus becomes seasonal. There have been four pandemics that didn't become seasonal. So here's hoping . . .
 
bear66 said:
We're still in the first transmission stage. A virus doesn't become seasonal until herd immunity makes seasonal changes the overriding factor. Not all new viruses become seasonal and we won't find out for some time if it will. A good article here
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Talking about herd immunity, I have to say it's always puzzled me that so many people seem to set such great store by the idea of herd immunity from CoVid-19 through natural infection, when it's normally only achieved by vaccination.

In fact unless there's something I've missed in my reading on this, there's only ever been one highly infectious disease that has shown susceptibility to being controlled by naturally-acquired herd immunity. This was with Zika (and only in one city in Brazil) where the disease appeared to subside after an estimated 50% of the population was exposed to it.

But apart from this one exception which is notable precisely for it's uniqueness, the only way herd immunity has otherwise been achieved is by vaccination, as far as I'm aware.

With all the major infectious diseases, such as smallpox, measles, polio, diphtheria etc, despite them being around for centuries if not millennia, herd immunity was never achieved by natural means. It wasn't until vaccines came along that it could be realised.

So I'm not quite sure why people think herd immunity by natural infection is even possible (let alone desirable) when the history of infectious diseases would seem to make it unlikely.
 
Liamo said:
Talking about herd immunity, I have to say it's always puzzled me that so many people seem to set such great store by the idea of herd immunity from CoVid-19 through natural infection, when it's normally only achieved by vaccination.

In fact unless there's something I've missed in my reading on this, there's only ever been one highly infectious disease that has shown susceptibility to being controlled by naturally-acquired herd immunity. This was with Zika (and only in one city in Brazil) where the disease appeared to subside after an estimated 50% of the population was exposed to it.

But apart from this one exception which is notable precisely for it's uniqueness, the only way herd immunity has otherwise been achieved is by vaccination, as far as I'm aware.

With all the major infectious diseases, such as smallpox, measles, polio, diphtheria etc, despite them being around for centuries if not millennia, herd immunity was never achieved by natural means. It wasn't until vaccines came along that it could be realised.

So I'm not quite sure why people think herd immunity by natural infection is even possible (let alone desirable) when the history of infectious diseases would seem to make it unlikely.
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I don't think people are saying herd immunity is the overall answer but more that alongside other factors i.e. a vaccine (hopefully) that all the parts will be to the sum of us being able to live alongside this virus.

That's my reading of it anyway.
 
Tommy_Dickfingers said:
I don't think people are saying herd immunity is the overall answer but more that alongside other factors i.e. a vaccine (hopefully) that all the parts will be to the sum of us being able to live alongside this virus.

That's my reading of it anyway.
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I don't believe it's a question of herd immunity alongside vaccines. What I'm actually saying is that herd immunity is almost certainly not achievable without a vaccine - it never has been before (with the one, partial exception I mentioned).

Since I wrote my post above, I came across an article in the journal Nature, which details this better than I ever could.

Here are a couple of quotes in it from Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore and Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California:
If the people who are infected become susceptible again in a year, then basically you’ll never reach herd immunity” through natural transmission, Rivers says.

“There’s no magic wand we can use here,” Andersen says. “We have to face reality — never before have we reached herd immunity via natural infection with a novel virus, and SARS-CoV-2 is unfortunately no different.” Vaccination is the only ethical path to herd immunity ...
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Nature article on herd immunity
 
7 weeks of significant excess deaths followed by 21 weeks of no significant excess deaths tends to suggest seasonal.
 

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1finny said:
7 weeks of significant excess deaths followed by 21 weeks of no significant excess deaths tends to suggest seasonal.
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There a link below which discusses the four known seasonal viruses. Viruses don't have to be seasonal as SARS and MERS aren't. Novel coronaviruses are rare and their novelty makes them unpredictable. We'll get a better understanding over the next 5-10 years which way it goes.
Link
 
bear66 said:
There a link below which discusses the four known seasonal viruses. Viruses don't have to be seasonal as SARS and MERS aren't. Novel coronaviruses are rare and their novelty makes them unpredictable. We'll get a better understanding over the next 5-10 years which way it goes.
Link
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Thanks for the link
You know we don’t like waiting - always best to speculate ;)
 
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