Does anybody Day trade for a living?

[Andy_W]

Knowing when to take a loss is the single biggest lesson to learn. It's also the hardest

95% will never learn how to do that though, as you know. They don't look at it the way they should.

It's either betting for fun, and trying to win big, quick, which is basically burning money, and then thinking they can somehow do better with this tactic if they did it full-time with more money, insanity. I see it all the time people posting 15 team accas on facebook when they win once a year, they don't post the losses though, and don't even realise the odds they won with, were likely half the odds which the chain of events should have been. Basically, they're cheering on half a pay out.

I had some pretty big scares back in the day, when emotion got the better of me, I got out of nearly all of them, but only by taking bigger risks. Even though I'd not lost, I'd still made the wrong decision trying to get it back, took a long time to realise that. Quickly realised after that that the better way to win, was smaller amounts over more bets, less risk, but I never had the bank roll to implement that, so I gave up.

 

[Laughing]

Do you mean on stocks? Isn't this meant to be extremely dangerous, as you basically get killed by the margins and fees, being small-time, the margins and fees which don't apply to the big firms which win big doing this?

Also, the big firms have massive teams full of analysts, and all sorts of computer models/ machine learning etc, you're unlikely to spot something which they don't, and when you do you will win small, the other times you'll lose big.

The easiest way to win on stocks is long term, on massively diversified portfolios or funds, but you need a big chunk in, to cover a wage, and those things are better left in to gain on the compound interest etc, that's where the big win is.

Have a look on eTorro maybe, there's loads of guys on there making like 40% per year in the good years, and you can copy their trades, most of them have been hammered like 30% in the last year mind. The way to do that is follow a few when the going is good, and then just get out when things start to look like they're going bad.

As daft as it sounds, you might be better looking at professional gambling, but more the trading side/ betfair etc, but you need to really know your market, only specialise in one market, ensure you have the fastest access to streams, stats and news etc. Also, you will need to practice, with pretend money to get up to speed, and then try it with a small amount and only end up trading 1-2% of your investment each time (it's not what you're winning, it's proving you can win, and beat variance over time), not doing daft things like betting small values, which are massive % of the investment, as that is just gambling, and you'll get battered by variance. Once you know you're happy and you can do it, use more money, but still only betting 1-2% of your pot etc.

Betfair will take a cut of course, on the exchange, but it's not that hard to beat the cut, and the market by a small percentage.

I used to do trading with Tennis and Cricket, it's easier on sports which are longer, which give you time to correct mistakes, and get out of trouble. NFL looks like it would be quite good too, not many in the UK know much about yet, and there's plenty of money going on it, loads of people betting on it with massively delayed streams, which is insane. There's software you can use to speed up the betting, and make things easier, miles better than using an app or website etc.

As with anything like trading stock or trading sports, every day is a learning day, even when you lose, and the best way to learn is to lose, providing you do actually learn from the mistakes. Don't go chasing massive wins, or chasing losses, small but consistent wins is the best way.

I agree with a lot of that and some of it not at all.

For example trading horses can be done knowing little or nothing. Trading races pre off you can use one of several strategies that require no knowledge of the horse you are trading.

Trade order flow - trading where money is arriving and being taken. Place aback order followed by a lay order at a shorter price and repeat.

Trade the change over points. At 2.0,3.0,4.0,6.0 etc. The increments change at those points so if you lay at 2.0 and the price goes out you gain twice as much as you lose if the price goes down. In other words a 1 tick move wings you more than you can loose on a 1 tick lose.

Those are 2 strategies that require knowing nowt about horses.

I also disagree with longer sports when you are starting out you have longer to get in deeper. A horse race pre off gives you 5 to 10 minutes to win or lose.

You are right money management is important. I trade to win 1% of my account balance. The trick is turnover.

Betfair take 2% to 5% of winnings depending on how often you trade.

Be aware that once you have an overall profit of 250k they can take up to 60% of winnings. It's more complex than that, but roughly.

Bet angel has a shed load of tools to help with individual sports. I only use soccer mystic but it has others for other sports.

 

[Laughing]

95% will never learn how to do that though, as you know. They don't look at it the way they should.

It's either betting for fun, and trying to win big, quick, which is basically burning money, and then thinking they can somehow do better with this tactic if they did it full-time with more money, insanity. I see it all the time people posting 15 team accas on facebook when they win once a year, they don't post the losses though, and don't even realise the odds they won with, were likely half the odds which the chain of events should have been. Basically, they're cheering on half a pay out.

I had some pretty big scares back in the day, when emotion got the better of me, I got out of nearly all of them, but only by taking bigger risks. Even though I'd not lost, I'd still made the wrong decision trying to get it back, took a long time to realise that. Quickly realised after that that the better way to win, was smaller amounts over more bets, less risk, but I never had the bank roll to implement that, so I gave up.

Your first paragraph is why almost everyone loses. Winning at sports betting is a doddle. You need a 2% edge to break even. A 3% edge gets you an income.

 

[Nano]

I think your last sentence is a none sequitur Nano.

There is no guarantee of success working for a hedge fund - you can lose other peoples money as easily as your own.

I just meant that you can't lose all your own money and you're getting a salary for doing it.

Back to the original poster. I would say that anyone getting into trading because they think it could be some get rich quick scheme to get them out of working is probably not in the best position to have the discipline to do it properly. You have to start with a large amount of capital and you're looking to replace a salary. What's your starting capital? If you are starting with a few grand and expecting to make £30k in a year then you've got much more chance of ending the year with £0 than £30k.

 

[ThatFragranceGuy]

 

[HundredRoom]

I use an options strategy on various asset classes. Profiteering from decay in value of an option over time.
I take a neutral stance on which direction a market will move.
I sell calls and puts at the same time at the same strike price
At the same time I buy out of the money options to safe guard against extreme moves. Limits the profits but I sleep better at night.

Profit to loss ratio is about 2:1 with a higher probability of a loss. But the maximum loss is guaranteed. Conversely the profit is limited.

Be aware that writing naked options and trading futures can lead to unlimited losses and bankruptcy

 

[Brian Marwood]

I use an options strategy on various asset classes. Profiteering from decay in value of an option over time.
I take a neutral stance on which direction a market will move.
I sell calls and puts at the same time at the same strike price
At the same time I buy out of the money options to safe guard against extreme moves. Limits the profits but I sleep better at night.

Profit to loss ratio is about 2:1 with a higher probability of a loss. But the maximum loss is guaranteed. Conversely the profit is limited.

Be aware that writing naked options and trading futures can lead to unlimited losses and bankruptcy

Isn't this the script that Bernie Madoff used to deflect when under scrutiny? Well, apart from the last line.

 

[Borodrew]

I initially swing traded, daily time frame an hour a night. Posted 3-5% a month for a year and was managing a few hundred k of investment on a site called Darwinex. This was a few years ago.

Two kids came along and my consistency/routine went out the window and I have hit a bit of a slump since. Been looking at the prop firm route as the little ones now 1 and there's slightly more time to dedicate.also, agree with poster on first page.

You backrest a strategy to see it has a positive expectancy, you play a probability game and even successful strategies can havelong periods of losses.



You have to position size to withstand that and stick to your plan. A lot of people have problems with that (managing risk)

 

[Andy_W]

I agree with a lot of that and some of it not at all.

For example trading horses can be done knowing little or nothing. Trading races pre off you can use one of several strategies that require no knowledge of the horse you are trading.

Trade order flow - trading where money is arriving and being taken. Place aback order followed by a lay order at a shorter price and repeat.

Trade the change over points. At 2.0,3.0,4.0,6.0 etc. The increments change at those points so if you lay at 2.0 and the price goes out you gain twice as much as you lose if the price goes down. In other words a 1 tick move wings you more than you can loose on a 1 tick lose.

Those are 2 strategies that require knowing nowt about horses.

I also disagree with longer sports when you are starting out you have longer to get in deeper. A horse race pre off gives you 5 to 10 minutes to win or lose.

You are right money management is important. I trade to win 1% of my account balance. The trick is turnover.

Betfair take 2% to 5% of winnings depending on how often you trade.

Be aware that once you have an overall profit of 250k they can take up to 60% of winnings. It's more complex than that, but roughly.

Bet angel has a shed load of tools to help with individual sports. I only use soccer mystic but it has others for other sports.

I wouldn't touch horses with a barge pole, it's just not my kind of thing with it being short duration and having zero interest and knowledge in it. It just seems totally crooked too, especially the small events when there's less liquidity.

Liquidity is another thing too, I rarely touched events with low liquidity on betfair, this becomes very important when dealing with bigger numbers!

I totally know what you mean about order flow mind, that wouldn't require any knowledge and I suppose it's something to bet on if nothing is happening, but I never did this, I only stuck to what I knew. I largely avoided football too even though I knew about that, but again due to it being too quick and one single thing can destroy your bet, where as with cricket and tennis there's usually get outs to be had, until late in the games.

Sure, you do have longer to get in deeper, but you "should" also know more to get you out of trouble. If you've done the practice and are only betting a small % of bank then it shouldn't be a problem. You need a big roll though, to make it pay more per hour than macdonalds etc.

For me, I would bet say 1% of bank, with the intention of maxing that out at 2%, over say a 5-day test or maybe 1.5% on a one-dayer or 5-set tennis match. Then also maybe have another 1% additional buffer which I would allow on say one event at any one time, in extreme circumstances. Of course, the intention was to get out of the red and green up as soon as possible, so you're trading with even lower or no risk to your bank. I might have 3/4 bets starting at 1% outlay, but but might end up with two of those winning and greening out/ removing the stake, one even and then maybe try and fix the one I'm losing on by trading out of it.

Used to use bet angel back in the day, and another which I can't remember, good tools and well worth he outlay.

Just had a look at my last fun bets, as couldn't remember what I had on, but looking alright, top one has sailed mind!

 

[Craggsy2]

I keep getting pop ups from this bloke on how to learn to trade:

Meet Greg Secker - LEARN TO TRADE

Greg Secker is an entrepreneur, philanthropist, and international speaker. He is the owner of Learn to Trade, SmartCharts Software, and Capital Index.

www.learntotrade.co.uk

Anybody given it a go?

 

[HundredRoom]

I keep getting pop ups from this bloke on how to learn to trade:

Meet Greg Secker - LEARN TO TRADE

Greg Secker is an entrepreneur, philanthropist, and international speaker. He is the owner of Learn to Trade, SmartCharts Software, and Capital Index.

www.learntotrade.co.uk

Anybody given it a go?

well theres plenty of info on this bloke around the net.
Spends more on advertising and selling get rich quick books etc than he does trading