Despite mounting the world’s fastest per-capita Covid-19 vaccination campaign

asredastheycome

asredastheycome

Well-known member
Chile imposes lockdowns to fight new Covid wave despite vaccination success. While we pack our towels ready to race the Germans to the sunbeds we should look to whats happening in Chile. They have a bigger percentage of the population than us vaccinated but are still seeing a new wave of infections. New cases have risen quickly amid mixed health messaging, travel over the southern hemisphere summer holidays and the circulation of new variants. International travel still allowed, and many Chileans took advantage of cheap flights to Miami, Brazil, the Dominican Republic and other destinations.
They have now had to introduce quarantine restrictions.

THIS SHOULD BE A WARNING TO THE UK.

www.theguardian.com

Chile imposes lockdowns to fight new Covid wave despite vaccination success

Nearly half the population has received at least one vaccine dose but residents of the capital and other regions face strict new curbs
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
It's whether the variants take hold by import will be the key. From recent figures, whilst the UK is levelling off / falling in cases, the South Africa and Brazil variants have increased by 3 to 5 times in a fortnight; that's from a very low base to a very low level (<1%), but it suggests that the increase can only have come from imports.
 
Looking at the Chile figures, it is worth noting that infection rates are rising, but mortality rate is pretty static.
Whether that's a timing issue, and mortality rates will rise, or its a reflection that vaccination reduces severe symptoms, I don't know. Definitely worth keeping a close eye on.
 
The massive problem is we won't know until it's too late whether a surge in infections leads to a surge in hospitalisations.

We have to see what happens in Chile and take corrective action if necessary.
 
It does, you would hope, give the UK some forewarning if mortality starts to increase in Chile. The infection rate is always going to go up once restrictions ease. Being infected isn't an issue, becoming seriously ill or dying is the issue.
 
As others have said it is the hospitalisations we need to watch out for, which is unclear as yet in Chile. However another useful bit of information is that although have given a lot of vaccination doses, they have a significantly lower number of people (%age wise) that have had a first dose compared to us - i.e. they are giving 2nd doses quicker - which will undoubtedly have an effect on their collective levels of immunity

In Israel they have a much higher level of vaccination and are not seeing this, quite the opposite in fact
 
I think it’s important to note that Chile’s vaccination program only really took off 6 or 7 weeks ago, and they increased it massively a few weeks ago.
Although in absolute number terms they are doing well, I think the majority have still only been vaccinated fairly recently, and we know there is next to zero immunity during the first couple of weeks. This may explain their situation. One to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
 

Attachments

  • 56CB91EB-A141-47B1-9FF4-032FF4C6101B.png
    56CB91EB-A141-47B1-9FF4-032FF4C6101B.png
    652.3 KB · Views: 9
FabioPorkpie said:
I think it’s important to note that Chile’s vaccination program only really took off 6 or 7 weeks ago, and they increased it massively a few weeks ago.
Although in absolute number terms they are doing well, I think the majority have still only been vaccinated fairly recently, and we know there is next to zero immunity during the first couple of weeks. This may explain their situation. One to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
Click to expand...

Thats a good point Fabio as long as people remember that. You see people getting interviewed when getting the jab here and they can't wait to dash off and hug the grand kids.
 
Laughing said:
The infection rate is always going to go up once restrictions ease. Being infected isn't an issue, becoming seriously ill or dying is the issue.
Click to expand...

You'd think so, but I have been pleasantly surprised that the rate hasn't risen following the kids returning to school. That was 3 weeks ago now.
I know there has been the odd day higher than the previous week. That may be due to testing a young population who weren't being tested before. However, the trend has continued gradually downward.
 
Frozen Horse said:
You'd think so, but I have been pleasantly surprised that the rate hasn't risen following the kids returning to school. That was 3 weeks ago now.
I know there has been the odd day higher than the previous week. That may be due to testing a young population who weren't being tested before. However, the trend has continued gradually downward.
Click to expand...
I hope you turn out to be right FH. It may be, and I don't know, that the rate of decline slowed after schools opened as positive school children went up and the rest of the population went down. There is also the increase in testing that occurred when the kids went back to school too, of course.

Hopefully the vaccinations give some protection from passing the virus on so that infections don't start to climb too quickly once we open parts of our life.

I don't think Johnson can, but he may use rising infection rates, should they occur, to slow down reopening.
 
Frozen Horse said:
You'd think so, but I have been pleasantly surprised that the rate hasn't risen following the kids returning to school. That was 3 weeks ago now.
I know there has been the odd day higher than the previous week. That may be due to testing a young population who weren't being tested before. However, the trend has continued gradually downward.
Click to expand...
Actually the 7 day average only went up on one day, every other day has been downward, albeit only slightly on some days. This despite the government telling us to expect a rise once schools went back.

Its all good news, I still wouldn’t bring forward any of our promised freedoms (we’ve stuck it this far and don’t want to give the govt excuses). But I do look forward to the day when the government doesn’t feel the need to act like a totalitarian state and actually trust the people who elected them rather than continue to patronise them.
 
Frozen Horse said:
Looking at the Chile figures, it is worth noting that infection rates are rising, but mortality rate is pretty static.
Whether that's a timing issue, and mortality rates will rise, or its a reflection that vaccination reduces severe symptoms, I don't know. Definitely worth keeping a close eye on.
Click to expand...
This is what would interest me, and is my undertsanding. Being vaccinated won't necessarily stop you getting it. But it will help you fight it. Will help reduce the impact. If hosptialisations in Chile DON'T increase then I would take this story as being good news. We don't have to fear the spread of the virus so much if it's impact is lessened
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
The vast majority of grandparents were vaccinated weeks ago, they're now being given the nod to mix, and so they should
Click to expand...
Yes I know now but I was talking about when they were being interviewed in vaccination centres. Even after first jab some were saying that. But it must be great for them now as you see how people love their grand kids.👍
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top