Cryptocurrency Crash

[mbg42]

Recommended Reading/YouTube Videos to become a better investor:

Stocks:
Any book/video from: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Peter Lynch, Seth Klarman, Richard Thaler

Ben Felix videos are Excellent.

Crypto:

Stay away from anyone who say with certainty they know how the market is going to go.
NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING.

But Ben Cowen is pretty good, as is Bob Loukas. Aimstone worth a watch.

For data, follow Glassnode and Look into Bitcoin channels.

Portfolio construction:

The more volatile an asset the more likely you are to sell when it goes down.
So even if you think that asset will outperform everything else over the long term putting all your money into is a terrible idea as you will likely panic sell at some point, or an unexpected bill will arrive and you will need to sell when the market is down.
If you had held Amazon over the last 30 years you would have done well but it has crashed 90% in that time twice.
Not many have the fortitude to hold when that happens.

So the more upside a volatile asset has the less you need of it.
Not only will you sleep better at night but when the volatile asset rips to the upside you don't need much of it
in your portfolio to make a nice difference and to be able to outperform the market.

So (not advice):

Think of something like:

80% Total market Index Fund.
15% Nasdaq
3% Bitcoin

2% in a one or two stocks or other cryptos for fun to see if are any good at stock/cryptos picking.

Maybe have a bit of small cap value fund in there as that tends to outperform in certain times.

Load of nonsense, launch 100% into your favourite memecoin and let the good times roll

 

[Nano]

BTW - I would advise diversification in any investment strategy.

Some property - at least your own house
Some shares - at least 30%
Some fixed cash/bonds - at least 20%
Some gold at least 5%

on top of a decent pension plan.

The issue is introducing some crytocurrenucy say by splitting gold/crypto allocation - personally I would keep crypto to 0% to 2%

I see some people are charging in with most of their investment funds into crypto, because it has done so well of late. If you make a profit take the initial investment out, so its impossible to lose, as one day there could be a big fall as Crypto's value is built almost all on pure speculation.

It's not that easy. My investment portfolio was about 5% crypto in December and now it's 20% and I haven't bought any crypto since then (and that's with the stock market flying this year!).

 

[VladKinder]

Lyn Alden's book Broken Money is the best book on the subject I've read.
She explains in it why all currencies are going to zero.

Here is her view on Bitcoin:

P.S for people just starting, first port of call is to learn the why Bitcoin is different to all other cryptos.

 

[VladKinder]

Jurrien Timmer (not a footballer, but one of Fidelity's head people). His Bitcoin research is a must read.

Fidelity compared Bitcoin to Gold:

 

[VladKinder]

If you have the time Tom Lee's excellent presentation:

 

[VladKinder]

Doug Tapscott on what makes Blockchain Tech so important:

 

[VladKinder]

Lastly, Bitcoin destroys Currencies. The U.S dollar has one of the best records against Bitcoin, and it's done this:



If you live in a country like Turkey, where your currency is being debased and inflated away, BTC does this:

 

[Andy_W]

It's not going up just because of the halving. That hasn't happened yet. It is going up because of the ETFs that have been approved in the US. If the investment companies want to have an ETF with Bitcoin as the underlying asset then they have to own that underlying asset so all the institutional investors having to purchase has been driving the price up. The halving is/will have an effect but it isn't marketing. The miners need a return on their investment or they won't mine and the halving means that only half the reward for mining each block is given so for them to get a return on their investment they need to sell at a higher price. It is just basic supply and demand because the amount of bitcoin available "for sale" is reduced which pushes the price up.

Yeah, I had heard about the ETF's, but I don't think that's enough of a reason for the price to double or whatever.

Prices move well in advance of any known upcoming events, just like they do in any market, from what I've read the halving is more of a factor along with timing. As it's so volatile people are and should be scared of getting in early before the halving, if the price could fall further before the market takes that into account.

There's also inflation too, everyone in the world or investing should have known we were at/ nearing the peak mid to late last year, and when people get confidence it's going to go down, and when, they start speculating more, it's part of the reason the stock market has been up since then also. Inflation coming down basically means interest rates will follow, at some point, and people become less scared they're not going to be able to pay their mortgage, and speculate more etc.

Just because the minors don't want to mine at that price, doesn't seem like enough of a reason for why the price of existing bitcoin should go up that much mind, the existing number of bitcoin available doesn't go down does it, other than people losing their wallet or access codes of course, which I did, which is a bit of a sore sore subject

Yeah, I know the halving isn't marketing as such, but it does seem to do that job. It gets people who have loads of bitcoin talking about it, word gets around, people start buying it and it pumps the price. The pump and dump aspect of this is what worries me, but not as much as there's nothing underlying the value of it, other than loads of wasted energy. The problem with crypto being so volatile helps those who trade it in large volumes, but also ultimately hurts it's potential use as it's too volatile to use as a currency exchange etc. Then there's no guarantee if crypto does get used, then it would be bitcoin or whatever. One might rocket, or hold it's price and the rest might go to zero. All seems like way too much risk to me, just seems so much like the greater fool theory, until it's actually going to be used and I don't see how that happens anytime soon.

It's not to do with age, it's to do with liquidising the investment. The closer you are to needing to convert into cash for a specific thing (and can't ride out peaks and troughs) then the less volatility you want for predictability. If you aren't planning on liquidating your assets and they are just going to be passed on via your estate then the level of risk is less important.

Yeah, I'm talking more about most people who get old who will be needing to liquidise most of their assets to use for a 10 year retirement or whatever, which might end up actually being 20 years if they live longer than expected. 10 years is not a long time, not if you're planning on burning through it at a steady rate over that 10 years. Obv if you end up needing 20 years of funds, you're not in a good spot to maintain the expected level of previous.
Sure, if you've loads of excess that you won't ever spend, and will be passing on then you can keep the risk level high, like 100% stocks or whatever, and would probably get a better return on this, and it's what I would do. I wouldn't be advising people to be passing on bitcoin mind, not if they actually want to guarantee to help the kids or if the kids aren't already loaded, but it's their money I suppose. It's the young uns who are already having to pay for old peoples wealth, gained from silly property prices, so personally I wouldn't want to risk not being able to help them out with a lot of certainty. Each to their own though.

 

[Nano]

Just because the minors don't want to mine at that price, doesn't seem like enough of a reason for why the price of existing bitcoin should go up that much mind, the existing number of bitcoin available doesn't go down does it, other than people losing their wallet or access codes of course, which I did, which is a bit of a sore sore subject

The reason is because there are people wanting to buy Bitcoin every day. There are 900 mined every day. Miners sell those 900 so the people wanting to buy have a steady supply at the current price. If the number of people wanting to buy stays the same but there are only 450 mined every day then the price goes up. It doesn't need more buy demand, the supply is reducing.

The price isn't really affected by how many total bitcoins there are in total but by how many are available for sale on exchanges.

Yeah, I had heard about the ETF's, but I don't think that's enough of a reason for the price to double or whatever.

It definitely does for the same reason as above. Most of the bitcoins in circulation aren't for sale. Those ETFs need to buy up the amount of bitcoins needed to cover what their investors want. It's a huge amount of money that has flowed into bitcoin to cover the ETF investments:

In terms of bitcoin ETF trading volumes, last week was by far a record.

The trading volumes total for the 10 offerings was roughly $22 billion, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Friday X post.

As a quick calc. At $65k per BTC the $22bn would be 376 days worth of mined Bitcoin. That will double after the halving.

 

[Andy_W]

This is the reason I made a very very small investment in the crypto world.
For years I had been spending too much money on scratch cards and I had enough of it I couldn't go into a shop without buying one. I don't know whether I had a gambling addiction or not but I was spending too much on them. I decided to stop so a bit like using a vape to stop smoking I put £30 in coin base got the freebies and then withdrew £20. I ended up with 1.2m shib and a couple of other coins. Since then I haven't put another penny into my coin base account I have swapped and traded coins on there so I now have 900 flare tokens and still my 1.2m shib tokens(it's worth about £70 today for both). That was over a year ago now and I haven't bought A single scratch card or placed a single bet. If I think about gambling then I just look at my coin base account and see if it has went up or down. This probably wasn't the right way or the best way to go about things but it has worked for me in the way I wanted it too.

Fair play, you've replaced one thing for another and moved down the risk scale and gained some cash so you should be happy with yourself. The vaping analogy is quite fitting too! It's not great, but much better!

I've never touched scratch cards or slot machines etc, as they have a terrible payout return %, so over time it's a practical certain loss. Just looking at the odds of them is enough to scare me off. My vice was sports betting, as at least you sort of have some chance, if you have an edge or know better than the market, so there's some chance of long term gains, but it's not simple against a bookie. Most who think they know, don't, and I definitely didn't across all sports I bet on. Things like acca's etc are terrible.

 

[Redwurzel]

It's not that easy. My investment portfolio was about 5% crypto in December and now it's 20% and I haven't bought any crypto since then (and that's with the stock market flying this year!).

It is easy mate - Just sell some bitcoin to get the % down - as Warren Buffet (billionaire investor) said "when everyone gets greedy you get cautious and when everyone is sellling you get greedy" human nature is to buy things that have risen alot, but in reality its is usually better to do the opposite.

 

[Andy_W]

Lastly, Bitcoin destroys Currencies. The U.S dollar has one of the best records against Bitcoin, and it's done this:

View attachment 72996

If you live in a country like Turkey, where your currency is being debased and inflated away, BTC does this:
View attachment 72997

It all depends on what timeline you look at. Who from Turkey was buying bitcoin, more than 2% of their investments in 2015? Who on here was? I'm only one of two people I actually know who went in before 2017, but even then I got out sharpish, as I **** my pants, and that was only a couple of grand, do I regret that? No, as it was the first lesson in don't put your eggs in one basket with a potential hole in it. Nobody I know with more than 1k has touched it since, to my knowledge, although I've probably got about that on it currently, via others.

I bet even not many on here were buying it in covid when it had been sub 10k for 2 years? Nobody was talking about it, until 2021 and we're not much above those current prices. For most of the time since it's been in the 15-30 range. Doesn't seem great compared to much lower risk stocks etc. Even the whole S&P is up nearly double in that time, and that's been dragged along by about 10 companies, the rest have basically done nothing, and when they do it might go further.

Plenty of time periods there, where anyone could have been down over a year or two years etc, and some cases three years. Loads of opportunities for people so $hit their pants thinking it's going to zero, when it drops 50% in 2-6 months. Plus there's always the risk bitcoin or any crypto does actually go to zero, i.e -100% from any point, or something near that, which is unlikely for the dollar, S&P 500, global all cap etc, as they actually have underlying assets and future profits to consider.

 

[Nano]

It all depends on what timeline you look at. Who from Turkey was buying bitcoin, more than 2% of their investments in 2015? Who on here was? I'm only one of two people I actually know who went in before 2017, but even then I got out sharpish, as I **** my pants, and that was only a couple of grand, do I regret that? No, as it was the first lesson in don't put your eggs in one basket with a potential hole in it. Nobody I know with more than 1k has touched it since, to my knowledge, although I've probably got about that on it currently, via others.

I bet even not many on here were buying it in covid when it had been sub 10k for 2 years? Nobody was talking about it, until 2021 and we're not much above those current prices. For most of the time since it's been in the 15-30 range. Doesn't seem great compared to much lower risk stocks etc. Even the whole S&P is up nearly double in that time, and that's been dragged along by about 10 companies, the rest have basically done nothing, and when they do it might go further.

Plenty of time periods there, where anyone could have been down over a year or two years etc, and some cases three years. Loads of opportunities for people so $hit their pants thinking it's going to zero, when it drops 50% in 2-6 months. Plus there's always the risk bitcoin or any crypto does actually go to zero, i.e -100% from any point, or something near that, which is unlikely for the dollar, S&P 500, global all cap etc, as they actually have underlying assets and future profits to consider.

This is how well your recommendation of "get out now" would have done on the previous times it hit an all time high (which it has done today".

 

[VladKinder]

It all depends on what timeline you look at. Who from Turkey was buying bitcoin, more than 2% of their investments in 2015? Who on here was? I'm only one of two people I actually know who went in before 2017, but even then I got out sharpish, as I **** my pants, and that was only a couple of grand, do I regret that? No, as it was the first lesson in don't put your eggs in one basket with a potential hole in it. Nobody I know with more than 1k has touched it since, to my knowledge, although I've probably got about that on it currently, via others.

I bet even not many on here were buying it in covid when it had been sub 10k for 2 years? Nobody was talking about it, until 2021 and we're not much above those current prices. For most of the time since it's been in the 15-30 range. Doesn't seem great compared to much lower risk stocks etc. Even the whole S&P is up nearly double in that time, and that's been dragged along by about 10 companies, the rest have basically done nothing, and when they do it might go further.

Plenty of time periods there, where anyone could have been down over a year or two years etc, and some cases three years. Loads of opportunities for people so $hit their pants thinking it's going to zero, when it drops 50% in 2-6 months. Plus there's always the risk bitcoin or any crypto does actually go to zero, i.e -100% from any point, or something near that, which is unlikely for the dollar, S&P 500, global all cap etc, as they actually have underlying assets and future profits to consider.

Myopic loss aversion is very common in humans.

People would rather be in "safe" investments such as savings account paying 4% that is never volatile rather going out on the risk curve to try to get 10% that would mean due to the power of compounding they would be able to retire years early or have a better lifestyle.

People also mix up Risk and Volatility. They are different.
Time is the best way to smooth volatility, as is having a diverse portfolio, with less percentage in the more volatile but more "growthy" assets.

As for Bitcoin, the chance of it going to zero is non-zero, but the chance of your life or this planet ending this year is also non-zero.
BTC is now an part of many people's portfolio. The genie is out of the bottle.
It's going to get bigger and stronger, but nothing goes up in a straight line, and if you don't learn what is it then you will just end up gambling.

Treat any asset or investment as you would a tip on a horse race and you are doing it wrong.

Learn what good long term investments are and buy them. If they go down in price buy more (short to medium price corrections = expected long term returns go up).
As Buffett put it: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

And it's all about having good behaviour and common sense, not trying to find a lottery stock or crypto that will make you rich overnight.

Most people aren't cut out for investing. That's the simple truth.
Less is More.

As Richard Thaler once said: Rip Van Winkle would make the best investor. Buy an index fund, fall asleep. Wake up 20 years later to see you have outperformed almost everyone.

 

[Andy_W]

This is how well your recommendation of "get out now" would have done on the previous times it hit an all time high (which it has done today".

I don't know where I said "get out now" in that post, but probably did earlier, as that's what I hope I would do now anyway. Also, as for your image, I would forget about anything pre 2017, or maybe even up to 2020, where the average was about 10k, as those were the early days and pre covid, and pre the last major rise to 65-70k etc.

The way you say/ the twitter image says that is like it hit the all time high, doubled and then didn't come crashing back down again, but a crash back to the 2-4 year average seems common, which would be hard for anyone to take if crypto was a large part of their portfolio.

From looking at the average, Aug 22 - March 23, and Sep 23 were the last times the price was below that. There were zero posts on this thread between Aug 22 and March 23, can't imagine many buying? There were a few posts Sep 23, but there wasn't much talk on here then of people buying, but there were indications of a few holders. But the price for the 3 years before was higher, a lot higher, so what were they holding at?

I would love to see the ROI of any holders from the threads with bitcoin, crypto mentioned in the thread title, they're all 2020 onwards on here, most 2021 onwards. Unless people bought once in dec 20, and timed the market (which is hard), they've likely been sat on a loss for a lot of that time, or already sold at a loss, and those who invest every month would have also been down till about Jan this year, but would be about 2x if they sold now.

The problem with bitcoin is the interest in the threads (from amateurs) only comes when there's been an increase (and people are talking about buying), it's never prior when it's in a hole (people aren't talking about buying), before it goes up. Then some in the threads when it's gone up, retrospectively says they got in when the price was low (but don't want to sell when it's high). If everyone reacts to bitcoin threads (which new guys naturally will), they're always going to be buying on recent highs, and not buying in the lows which is the danger. Investing little and often seems rough too, which is meant to be the easy way.

I might look at putting in 2-5% if it comes back down below the MA by 25-50% or whatever, but we'll see.

 

[Nano]

I don't know where I said "get out now" in that post, but probably did earlier, as that's what I hope I would do now anyway.

You said it yesterday:

Interesting that this has gone up again, seemingly just because of the halving (which everyone with major stakes in knew was coming), yet it's seemingly no further forward in being used in day to day life.

I still wouldn't advise a novice to be touching any or much crypto with a barge pole mind, especially not after a rally. I've <1% of my investments in it, as part of following some traders on eTorro, but that's pretty much gambling/ very high risk. I think they only buy when it's below the 200-300 day moving average mind, so I'm not fussed about that.

For anyone who got in before the rise, fair play, but this might be a good time to get out, as all the talk of the halving (and every halving) to me just seems like marketing, to bring in new buyers again and temporarily jack the price up, so the big guys can cash in again.

My point is just that your advice/guidance/knowledge of the subject is completely surface level. You won't put anything in when it comes back down because otherwise you would have done it last time. You will stay quiet on it as it rises and talk about how crap it is when it goes down but you are one of the amateurs you talk about that only talk about it when it is in the news because it is hitting highs or lows.

We've already covered all this last year on this thread below when you had the chance to buy at a low and the only time you have ever bought was near an all time high and you lasted less than a month. If you'd held you'd be up 400%:

Crypto

For any of you FMTTMers that are involved with crypto right now I hope you got out at the right time. I decided to HODL for a bit, but finally took the decision to sell. It's looking nasty.

fmttmboro.com

 

[Andy_W]

Myopic loss aversion is very common in humans.

People would rather be in "safe" investments such as savings account paying 4% that is never volatile rather going out on the risk curve to try to get 10% that would mean due to the power of compounding they would be able to retire years early or have a better lifestyle.

People also mix up Risk and Volatility. They are different.
Time is the best way to smooth volatility, as is having a diverse portfolio, with less percentage in the more volatile but more "growthy" assets.

As for Bitcoin, the chance of it going to zero is non-zero, but the chance of your life or this planet ending this year is also non-zero.
BTC is now an part of many people's portfolio. The genie is out of the bottle.
It's going to get bigger and stronger, but nothing goes up in a straight line, and if you don't learn what is it then you will just end up gambling.

Treat any asset or investment as you would a tip on a horse race and you are doing it wrong.

Learn what good long term investments are and buy them. If they go down in price buy more (short to medium price corrections = expected long term returns go up).
As Buffett put it: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

And it's all about having good behaviour and common sense, not trying to find a lottery stock or crypto that will make you rich overnight.

Most people aren't cut out for investing. That's the simple truth.
Less is More.

As Richard Thaler once said: Rip Van Winkle would make the best investor. Buy an index fund, fall asleep. Wake up 20 years later to see you have outperformed almost everyone.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with all of that.

I'm not averse to risk mind, quite the opposite, it makes sense when you're young(ish), but being in 100% stocks would be classed as high risk to most, selecting individual stocks even more risk and bitcoin being extreme risk if you're more than 10-20% or whatever, but each to their own. I suppose it depends on whether you're also investing £100 or your life savings of 200k or whatever.

My target is 8-10% for my main Vanguard ISA's which are pretty much S&P and all world I think, it's 100% stocks anyway. Last years ISA on 212 is pretty much all tech/ AI etc, and that's up about 40%, so will probably shift that into all world soon instead. I try to get a bit more with my higher risk punts which I can't get into ISA's due to limits etc, but I need to get everything more consolidated I think as I've got accounts all over the place. Will probably have a re-jig when the next ISA opens up. Obviously having AI/ Tech, S&P and all world is a hell of a lot of doubling up on about 10-20 major companies, which is OTT I think, and it's trying to be too greedy.

You're right about not many beating the index funds, those are the key for me, with lowest fees too.

My old man has basically everything on gold, and gold only, he only ever mentions it when it goes up like

 

[Andy_W]

You said it yesterday:

My point is just that your advice/guidance/knowledge of the subject is completely surface level. You won't put anything in when it comes back down because otherwise you would have done it last time. You will stay quiet on it as it rises and talk about how crap it is when it goes down but you are one of the amateurs you talk about that only talk about it when it is in the news because it is hitting highs or lows.

We've already covered all this last year on this thread below when you had the chance to buy at a low and the only time you have ever bought was near an all time high and you lasted less than a month. If you'd held you'd be up 400%:

Crypto

For any of you FMTTMers that are involved with crypto right now I hope you got out at the right time. I decided to HODL for a bit, but finally took the decision to sell. It's looking nasty.

fmttmboro.com

My knowledge is basic, but similar to the average person who's had a punt on bitcoin or crypto, which is kind of my point, and much more than the average guy on the street.

Saying I won't do something because I haven't last time is a bit silly, anytime someone invests in something for the first time they're doing something which they haven't before and circumstances change all the time also. But, like I said, I've been on crypto before, have kept an eye on the price since 2017, and currently have about 1% on it, which is probably more value than most on here have in it. I've got more disposable income now, which I can't get into tax free savings and have zero interest in waiting for a pension, so I'm looking for things with higher risk. Crypto might be one of those, but I would be actively be trying to avoid peaks. Little and often what I prefer looks a bit rough, so I wouldn't really be up for that though.

My first post on that thread was 12 May 22, the price was 40k, it dropped significantly from there, and it didn't hit that price again till Dec 23. The thread died in Nov 22 when the price was 17k, and there wasn't a peep from you on it after Jun 22.

This thread started Jan 22, price was 43k, resurfaced Sep 23 price was 25k, not many talking of buying then either.

Of course I talk about it when it's in the news, it's pretty much the only time these threads pop up, most on here do the same thing, like yourself.

Since 2017 the S&P is up 150%, All world up 100%, which I would consider quite low risk over 7 years, that is and was good enough for me, for that time period. Barring the start of covid for 3 months, the worst it's dropped is about 25% from a recent peak, but recovered just as quick, and I can handle that. Since covid bitcoins dropped as much as 78% from a recent peak. Sure, some may have still been in profit then, but not many I expect.

 

[sweet_left_foot]

Any investor with a proven track record would advise you take less risk, the older you get, if you're investing over a long time frame, with a portfolio which contains a large chunk of your wealth.

whilst what you say is true, you didn't think about what I said.

 

[Nano]

My knowledge is basic, but similar to the average person who's had a punt on bitcoin or crypto, which is kind of my point, and much more than the average guy on the street.

Saying I won't do something because I haven't last time is a bit silly, anytime someone invests in something for the first time they're doing something which they haven't before and circumstances change all the time also. But, like I said, I've been on crypto before, have kept an eye on the price since 2017, and currently have about 1% on it, which is probably more value than most on here have in it. I've got more disposable income now, which I can't get into tax free savings and have zero interest in waiting for a pension, so I'm looking for things with higher risk. Crypto might be one of those, but I would be actively be trying to avoid peaks. Little and often what I prefer looks a bit rough, so I wouldn't really be up for that though.

My first post on that thread was 12 May 22, the price was 40k, it dropped significantly from there, and it didn't hit that price again till Dec 23. The thread died in Nov 22 when the price was 17k, and there wasn't a peep from you on it after Jun 22.

This thread started Jan 22, price was 43k, resurfaced Sep 23 price was 25k, not many talking of buying then either.

Of course I talk about it when it's in the news, it's pretty much the only time these threads pop up, most on here do the same thing, like yourself.

Since 2017 the S&P is up 150%, All world up 100%, which I would consider quite low risk over 7 years, that is and was good enough for me, for that time period. Barring the start of covid for 3 months, the worst it's dropped is about 25% from a recent peak, but recovered just as quick, and I can handle that. Since covid bitcoins dropped as much as 78% from a recent peak. Sure, some may have still been in profit then, but not many I expect.

People that day trade will likely be down because it's volatile but anyone that held it will be up. Long term investors aren't day traders. 99% of people that invested in bitcoin and still own it today are in profit.

Also, you seem to be completely missing the fact that small time investors like us don't have any influence on the price. The reason that it is rising or falling at any given time is because institutional investors are now invested. Back in 2017 (and obviously much earlier) things were very different. You say it hasn't gone mainstream yet but what does $30bn of investment from the US in the last few weeks alone tell you? You speak with a lot of confidence on something you clearly have very little knowledge of and it is always negative. As more institutions come no board and things like pension companies are invested then it will reduce volatility (as they are long term holders of assets) but it will also increase the price because pensions are added to every month with every paycheck.

Saying I won't do something because I haven't last time is a bit silly
No it isn't. If you think Bitcoin is going to go up over time then waiting for it to drop in price is silly. There have been 7 years of ups and downs since you last bought and an investment at any time in that would have been up and almost certainly beaten all of your other investments. It only comes on your radar when it hits the news and then you only talk about missing the boat.

Last time you invested you sold at $15k and they you missed the rise to $65k and it never went back down to a price you were happy with so saying you will invest when it goes down again isn't going to happen because if it goes down you'll say "that's the end of it, we've missed the boat now" but if the same sort of action we have seen after every other halving happens it migh hit $250k and the new low could be $75k and you still won't invest.


I don't talk about crypto often. I don't invest often either. I haven't added (or sold) anything since 2017. I'm not a crypto evangelist and I don't hold enough to ever make me rich. I watch because I'm interested and I comment on it mainly to counter the mis-truths other people have about something they don't understand and those mis-truths only seem to surface when it is in the news hitting highs or lows.