Russia is now having to put most of its resources into defending Crimea, which it has some legitimate historical claim to. They are running out of the necessary materials and troops to conduct an offensive war. I think they will abandon much of what they have taken in the east of Ukraine in order to defend Crimea. In Kherson, the Russian troops have been abandoned and have taken to stealing childrens' pool inflatables to get them across the river. Airbases have been hit. Wagner HQ too. Russian generals are getting themselves to safety. On the flip side, this is likely where the Ukrainians get nasty.