Controversial Covid post

FabioPorkpie said:
Lies. I said neither of those things.
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You quoted the video with 43k kings college cases, and trying to back that up to deny the 96k ICL cases, undermine it's credibility or bring that into doubt. The only thing brought into doubt is that bloke in the video and why he's feeding the trolls?

Turns out the 43k Kings College Cases was actually 43k Zoe App, private company, user reported, symptoms only cases.

Do you at least admit that video (that you shared) is totally misleading?

Here are some screen shots:
1604133451066.png

So, your bottom line, the number is higher as Zoe is using cases with symptoms only (43k) and with what people input into an app! The ICL was using cases in general (96k), could have symptoms, could also not, as this was done with testing. Your 43k figure of "cases with symptoms" could be 200k cases using the "only 20% have symptoms" idea. (I'm not saying the 200k cases is true, I think the app data is probably not the best, or not as reliable as a test).
ONS figures, they also come from testing, like the ICL data.
ONS figures are using data from the 17th, applying that to 17th-23rd, and then assuming that's still current today (it's not).

The quality if data isn't bad, it's the poor interpretation of it, not comparing like for like, using old data.
Then there are also people who cannot see these issues, who are not open about them or intentionally misleading people, these people shouldn't be using the data and spreading fake news (like the guy in the video)
 
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FabioPorkpie said:
Lies. I said neither of those things.
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Here's a screenshot from the video you shared (video dated 29th Oct), the two things here should not even be on the same page as they're not the same thing, not by a long stretch.
1604135964946.png
Left:
ICL (who predicted the rise last March/ April)
Actual Tests
96,000 cases per day (also includes those without symptoms)
This data seems to correlate quite well with the ONS data (which is based on 52k cases per day as of the 17th October, two weeks ago, obviously we've gone up a lot since then, proven by latest test positives, hospital admissions, deaths etc)

Right:
"Kings College Data" - which comes from Zoe (which is a private company, and they don't seem to share their data)
User reported symptoms
43,000 cases with symptoms only (how many have symptoms, 20%?)
What is zoe's expected figure of total cases (including those without symptoms?
Why does he not compare this figure? Because he doesn't know what he's on about or his intentionally misleading people.

Then this crap below, same video 17:50 claiming no excess
1604136881673.png
Week ending 16/10, excess deaths was 808 which is 8% more than it should be. Average covid deaths per day on this date 107, so about 749 per week)
Week ending 23/10, we don't have the excess death figure for this yet, as it's not out. Average covid deaths were 163 (1,141 per wk)
Week ending 30/10, we don't have the excess death figure for this yet, as it's not out. Average covid deaths were 247 (1,729 per wk)

So, the covid deaths now is about 2.3x higher, so my rough estimation (like excess followed covid in March/ April) is excess now is about 2.3x higher than on 16/10. So I would say our excess is near 18% now.
I would say we are seeing overall excess deaths, unless 18% doesn't count, or the 8% (and rising) from 16/10 doesn't count?

Also, death trails cases by about 18 days, so deaths now are the impact of what was going on 18 days ago. We know cases have been on the way up for those last 18 days on average, so that excess death figure is only going one way, after w/e 30/10, and it's not down.
 
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Statto1 said:
You quoted the video with 43k kings college cases, and trying to back that up to deny the 96k ICL cases, undermine it's credibility or bring that into doubt. The only thing brought into doubt is that bloke in the video and why he's feeding the trolls?

Turns out the 43k Kings College Cases was actually 43k Zoe App, private company, user reported, symptoms only cases.

Do you at least admit that video (that you shared) is totally misleading?

Here are some screen shots:
View attachment 8106

So, your bottom line, the number is higher as Zoe is using cases with symptoms only (43k) and with what people input into an app! The ICL was using cases in general (96k), could have symptoms, could also not, as this was done with testing. Your 43k figure of "cases with symptoms" could be 200k cases using the "only 20% have symptoms" idea. (I'm not saying the 200k cases is true, I think the app data is probably not the best, or not as reliable as a test).
ONS figures, they also come from testing, like the ICL data.
ONS figures are using data from the 17th, applying that to 17th-23rd, and then assuming that's still current today (it's not).

The quality if data isn't bad, it's the poor interpretation of it, not comparing like for like, using old data.
Then there are also people who cannot see these issues, who are not open about them or intentionally misleading people, these people shouldn't be using the data and spreading fake news (like the guy in the video)
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Putting words in my mouth. Again.
Interpreting things as you want to see them.Again.
Missing the point, deliberately. Again.
Arguing with yourself. Again.
 
None of you three have countered anything I've posted though, you just keep approving misleading videos or then diverting onto something else.
It's fine to be inquisitive, but you're questioning the wrong things.

The more you post and share defective or intentionally misleading information, the more I'll break it down to show why it is that. I'm only using ONS data, data from actual tests and data from current and historical deaths per day.
 
RandySavage said:
I'm still not entirely sure what he's trying to say or get people to do? 🤔🥴
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He fills long responses full of magic numbers, supposition , assumption, misdirection, and then declares he’s won some imaginary argument (that he’s having with himself).

Whatever his motivation, he’s spending an awful lot of time and going to a lot of effort (screen shotting for Christ’s sake) writing out nonsensical replies that even I’m not actually reading, let alone anyone else .....

Maybe it makes him feel better, and if that’s how he’s coping, then I’m just glad I can have helped him in some way.
@Statto1 It’s ok mate, you can let it go now. I give you my permission 👍
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Putting words in my mouth. Again.
Interpreting things as you want to see them.Again.
Missing the point, deliberately. Again.
Arguing with yourself. Again.
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What is your point?

You seem to just share videos of a bloke that shares misleading or old information.

My point is to try and stop people sharing fake news or explain how misleading certain information is. The fake news and misleading info is undermining the effort to fight the virus, which is what the vast majority of the population believe in.
 
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FabioPorkpie said:
He fills long responses full of magic numbers, supposition , assumption, misdirection, and then declares he’s won some imaginary argument (that he’s having with himself).

Whatever his motivation, he’s spending an awful lot of time and going to a lot of effort (screen shotting for Christ’s sake) writing out nonsensical replies that even I’m not actually reading, let alone anyone else .....

Maybe it makes him feel better, and if that’s how he’s coping, then I’m just glad I can have helped him in some way.
@Statto1 It’s ok mate, you can let it go now. I give you my permission 👍
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43k cases with symptoms (from an app)
96k cases with or without symptoms (predicted from actual testing)
What is magic about that?
Do you not agre that 43k cases with symptoms could be up to 200k cases without symptoms? Thus disproving your doubts about there being 96k cases per day? (which I've said 96k cases is possible)

8% excess deaths week ending 16/10
What is magic about that?

The only misdirection is on the videos you share and how you back them up with zero reasoning, when any of it is questioned.
 
Agendas on this thread:

Some on here are pushing pseudoscience and conspiracy theory to support their own agendas, or they have fallen for the pseudoscience and conspiracy. They do not understand the real science as there isn't a discredited scientist explaining it on Youtube. It's easier to put your fingers in your ears than backtrack. Both options make them look stupid.

Then you have Statto's agenda. He is pointing out flaws in the other arguments, backing this up with evidence and asking for explanations. Not trying to catch people out, just trying to understand and help those people understand. Unfortunately this approach of evidence and discussion is not loved by those who are blindly pushing a false narrative and that is why we have ended up in stalemate.
 
MolteniArcore said:
Agendas on this thread:

Some on here are pushing pseudoscience and conspiracy theory to support their own agendas, or they have fallen for the pseudoscience and conspiracy. They do not understand the real science as there isn't a discredited scientist explaining it on Youtube. It's easier to put your fingers in your ears than backtrack. Both options make them look stupid.

Then you have Statto's agenda. He is pointing out flaws in the other arguments, backing this up with evidence and asking for explanations. Not trying to catch people out, just trying to understand and help those people understand. Unfortunately this approach of evidence and discussion is not loved by those who are blindly pushing a false narrative and that is why we have ended up in stalemate.
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You think by questioning sensationalist news headlines that are based on incorrect information THAT constitutes pushing a false narrative??
 
FabioPorkpie said:
You think by questioning sensationalist news headlines that are based on incorrect information THAT constitutes pushing a false narrative??
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That doesn't no, but that's not what you are doing. You are questioning sensationalist news headlines citing flawed and incorrect evidence and not accepting basic, logical and easily proven truths. It is the opposite of critical thinking.

@Zoophonic is right. And as such I won't comment further. When people believe any old rubbish just because it's on YouTube you have to wonder if they are worthy of your time, effort or debate. It's got to the stage where they are not.

We are going onto lockdown. If cases / deaths have continued to rise at the same rate as now by Christmas then give me a nudge on this thread and I'll come back and admit I was wrong. That would be proof that lockdowns down't work. Enjoy the rest of your weekend (y)
 
MolteniArcore said:
That doesn't no, but that's not what you are doing. You are questioning sensationalist news headlines citing flawed and incorrect evidence and not accepting basic, logical and easily proven truths. It is the opposite of critical thinking.

@Zoophonic is right. And as such I won't comment further. When people believe any old rubbish just because it's on YouTube you have to wonder if they are worthy of your time, effort or debate. It's got to the stage where they are not.

We are going onto lockdown. If cases / deaths have continued to rise at the same rate as now by Christmas then give me a nudge on this thread and I'll come back and admit I was wrong. That would be proof that lockdowns down't work. Enjoy the rest of your weekend (y)
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You do know what we are gonna be peddled with?the cases were already coming down when we put the nation lockdown so we can therefore conclude it had zero impact by doing so as 30% of us have natural immunity
 
MolteniArcore said:
That doesn't no, but that's not what you are doing. You are questioning sensationalist news headlines citing flawed and incorrect evidence and not accepting basic, logical and easily proven truths. It is the opposite of critical thinking.

@Zoophonic is right. And as such I won't comment further. When people believe any old rubbish just because it's on YouTube you have to wonder if they are worthy of your time, effort or debate. It's got to the stage where they are not.

We are going onto lockdown. If cases / deaths have continued to rise at the same rate as now by Christmas then give me a nudge on this thread and I'll come back and admit I was wrong. That would be proof that lockdowns down't work. Enjoy the rest of your weekend (y)
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Wait, so the lag doesn't matter anymore?

🤔
 
GazC_MFC said:
You do know what we are gonna be peddled with?the cases were already coming down when we put the nation lockdown so we can therefore conclude it had zero impact by doing so as 30% of us have natural immunity
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But if cases are coming down... Which it looks like they are... Then whatever impact lockdown has isn't worth it. Remember the price of lockdown are devastating.
In fact could you list the impacts of lockdown for me? Just so I know what you think they are.
 
Alvez_48 said:
But if cases are coming down... Which it looks like they are... Then whatever impact lockdown has isn't worth it. Remember the price of lockdown are devastating.
In fact could you list the impacts of lockdown for me? Just so I know what you think they are.
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Economy - business will go the wall, people will lose their jobs
Health - people will suffer from not been able to get the same level of care prior to lockdown, peoples mental health will be effected

if you don’t lockdown the health one becomes worse as you have to close more of the nhs, but you also effect the mental health of nhs workers if you overwhelm them
 
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