Cases and deaths down for a few days now...

dooderooni

Well-known member
#61
You don't need to be fearful of the virus, you need to respect it, respect yourself and respect others. You need to acknowledge that you "dropping the ball" can lead to a ripple through society that could, at some point, end up with someone losing their life.
The only reason the virus is still rife is because people are still allowing it to be so,
The "hands, space, face" mantra might be hackneyed, but it is a path to cutting down on transmission and it's far more effective than any government plan, if almost everybody does it and that's the problem, a large enough number aren't.
Lockdowns are a sledgehammer to crack the nut of those who aren't doing their bit to stop the virus spreading.
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#62
You don't need to be fearful of the virus, you need to respect it, respect yourself and respect others. You need to acknowledge that you "dropping the ball" can lead to a ripple through society that could, at some point, end up with someone losing their life.
The only reason the virus is still rife is because people are still allowing it to be so,
The "hands, space, face" mantra might be hackneyed, but it is a path to cutting down on transmission and it's far more effective than any government plan, if almost everybody does it and that's the problem, a large enough number aren't.
Lockdowns are a sledgehammer to crack the nut of those who aren't doing their bit to stop the virus spreading.
I don’t disagree, but the practical reality is that you cannot get 99% of a population to comply with rules (and laws!) made up, sometimes seemingly on a whim, by a group of people who have on a few occasions not complied with them themselves. That is a problem, even if we believe it shouldn’t be. Plus, people want to know from one day to the next whether they’re allowed to see their friends and family and where. It’s reached a point where lots of people aren’t willing to live at the beckon call of the government on it.

It’s down to the government to get people to buy into it. But, like most people, they have broken the rules once or twice themselves, and therefore they don’t have the nation’s respect.
 
#63
Government credibility is shot, so nobody is willing to give them any more chances, people are no longer viewing infection rates as alarming, it’s just a stat, it is just another news item now, not the be all and end all, they don’t see massive death rates like the first time round.
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#64
Government credibility is shot, so nobody is willing to give them any more chances, people are no longer viewing infection rates as alarming, it’s just a stat, it is just another news item now, not the be all and end all, they don’t see massive death rates like the first time round.
I think this is pretty much the nail on the head and what I was saying about fear. 1200 deaths a day in April, before the Cummings thing, people were willing to buy in. Now, they see that the average age of death is 82 (higher than the UK life expectancy itself), and that there are deaths in the same ball park as a bad dose of flu. They’re also seeing other deaths/economic peril as a result of the response to the virus and are no longer willing to accept living under house arrest as a trade off for being a “good person”. People have mostly simply reached the point where they’re willing to take risks. I try not to judge because you don’t know anyone’s individual circumstances. There are plenty of people who genuinely have bigger things on their mind than a virus that won’t kill them or probably anyone they know. Selfish? Maybe, but in some cases maybe not.
 

Jostler

Well-known member
#67
I don’t disagree, but the practical reality is that you cannot get 99% of a population to comply with rules (and laws!) made up, sometimes seemingly on a whim, by a group of people who have on a few occasions not complied with them themselves. That is a problem, even if we believe it shouldn’t be. Plus, people want to know from one day to the next whether they’re allowed to see their friends and family and where. It’s reached a point where lots of people aren’t willing to live at the beckon call of the government on it.

It’s down to the government to get people to buy into it. But, like most people, they have broken the rules once or twice themselves, and therefore they don’t have the nation’s respect.
I read somewhere early on that the UK as a nation was one of the most scared of the virus, but at the same time one of the least likely to adhere to restrictions. So we end up with a load of scared people breaking rules and then probably having increased anxiety because of it.
 

Frozen Horse

Well-known member
#68
With regards to the OP, 3 day average is down but 7 day average is still rising. The 3 day average has dipped a few times during the 2nd wave but the 7 day upward trend is too early to judge.

I think it's worth asking what a lockdown would have achieved.

It would not make the virus go away. Neither would it have gone away if we'd extended the initial lockdown.

It could remain like this for years: we cannot stay on lockdown for that period of time.

We should therefore be looking for ways to continue life as normally as possible with the virus.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#69
With regards to the OP, 3 day average is down but 7 day average is still rising. The 3 day average has dipped a few times during the 2nd wave but the 7 day upward trend is too early to judge.

I think it's worth asking what a lockdown would have achieved.

It would not make the virus go away. Neither would it have gone away if we'd extended the initial lockdown.

It could remain like this for years: we cannot stay on lockdown for that period of time.

We should therefore be looking for ways to continue life as normally as possible with the virus.
New Zealand are nicely back to normal with packed rugby stadiums. It's too late for us now as we've invested our time over the last 6 months badly. There was a second opportunity to be more decisive in the summer. Even in September, but not now.
 

Jostler

Well-known member
#70
With regards to the OP, 3 day average is down but 7 day average is still rising. The 3 day average has dipped a few times during the 2nd wave but the 7 day upward trend is too early to judge.
.
This. You’re best off looking at the same day from the previous week for a more accurate picture and although it looks to be slowing, it’s still rising.

On the flip side, found this article from yesterday and found it remarkabley reassuring - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54570373

There’s also another on the Beeb about death rate being much lower than at The start of the pandemic. I think it was 39% of people admitted to intensive care died at the start of the summer. That is now down around 12% (though subject to some change due to time lags)
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#71
With regards to the OP, 3 day average is down but 7 day average is still rising. The 3 day average has dipped a few times during the 2nd wave but the 7 day upward trend is too early to judge.

I think it's worth asking what a lockdown would have achieved.

It would not make the virus go away. Neither would it have gone away if we'd extended the initial lockdown.

It could remain like this for years: we cannot stay on lockdown for that period of time.

We should therefore be looking for ways to continue life as normally as possible with the virus.
Agree. I think we basically have no choice. The toothpaste is out of the tube and it’s not going back in. People have to assess their own risks.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
#72
This. You’re best off looking at the same day from the previous week for a more accurate picture and although it looks to be slowing, it’s still rising.

On the flip side, found this article from yesterday and found it remarkabley reassuring - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54570373

There’s also another on the Beeb about death rate being much lower than at The start of the pandemic. I think it was 39% of people admitted to intensive care died at the start of the summer. That is now down around 12% (though subject to some change due to time lags)
And not to mention the % of people admitted to hospital in the first place is far far lower than the original 20% claimed back in March...

IMG_20201018_124843.jpg

It's around 4.6% currently..

@bear66 New Zealand is still an ongoing scenario... They have effectively closed their borders, have the advantage of being a large island (or 2 islands if you will) with a tiny population and are remote. They aren't a global hub for anything.
Their suicide rate has sky rocketed (and already was rising substantially pre-pandemic).
They also now have the issue that they must stay this way for a long time until an effective vaccine has been rolled out across the globe. I do believe they've done well for them but it's lazy to suggest that it would be possible for any UK government to enact the same response.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#73
And not to mention the % of people admitted to hospital in the first place is far far lower than the original 20% claimed back in March...

View attachment 7656

It's around 4.6% currently..

@bear66 New Zealand is still an ongoing scenario... They have effectively closed their borders, have the advantage of being a large island (or 2 islands if you will) with a tiny population and are remote. They aren't a global hub for anything.
Their suicide rate has sky rocketed (and already was rising substantially pre-pandemic).
They also now have the issue that they must stay this way for a long time until an effective vaccine has been rolled out across the globe. I do believe they've done well for them but it's lazy to suggest that it would be possible for any UK government to enact the same response.
Opening up with Australia by Christmas and with life back to normal, the vote yesterday showed how happy they are with the PM's response. We could have done exactly the same as them.

Have you seen anything more up to date than refuting of higher suicide rates during lockdown here?
 

T_A_D

Active member
#74
Don’t those graphs start falling before we enacted the new lockdown measures? Or am I being daft. I thought it was all On a couple of week lag too.
Exactly. You cannot 'control the virus'. If this is a seasonal coronavirus (if not then we're getting further into conspiracy theories) then they follow a very clear pattern, with infections peaking around March/April (for Northern European countries, different pattern for other parts of the globe - I have shown the graphs) before declining to little over summer then perhaps small, self limiting outbreaks. This is exactly what we have seen, despite fear and nonsense of "rising infections", "exponential growth" being spouted by SAGE. I'm sorry, the raw data does not support this. Perhaps, just perhaps some MPs are slowly becoming awake to what is actually going on. If a few doctors begin to stand up and speak out about what is actually going on regarding testing in hospitals then the rest will follow.

This has followed the exact pattern as a seasonal coronavirus. If it surges back then we either have a massive "cooking of the books" with regards to the numbers (that is already going on) or an entirely different virus (and we are truly getting into conspiracy theories deeper).
 

bear66

Well-known member
#76
Exactly. You cannot 'control the virus'. If this is a seasonal coronavirus (if not then we're getting further into conspiracy theories) then they follow a very clear pattern, with infections peaking around March/April (for Northern European countries, different pattern for other parts of the globe - I have shown the graphs) before declining to little over summer then perhaps small, self limiting outbreaks. This is exactly what we have seen, despite fear and nonsense of "rising infections", "exponential growth" being spouted by SAGE. I'm sorry, the raw data does not support this. Perhaps, just perhaps some MPs are slowly becoming awake to what is actually going on. If a few doctors begin to stand up and speak out about what is actually going on regarding testing in hospitals then the rest will follow.

This has followed the exact pattern as a seasonal coronavirus. If it surges back then we either have a massive "cooking of the books" with regards to the numbers (that is already going on) or an entirely different virus (and we are truly getting into conspiracy theories deeper).
It isn't a seasonal virus.
 

T_A_D

Active member
#77
I said I'd post the updated ICNARC data. Here is it.

1603038054133.png
Compare with the peak in March. Bare in mind that given it seems the testing is a sorry state (maybe I'll have some time to some links on that at some point) we are well below the spring (as expected) and nothing like the gradient of rise the government and SAGE keep talking about. We have seen a plateau in "cases", there will be a plateau in admissions, and then a plateau in ICU admissions which looks close now.
 

zorro_mfc

Well-known member
#79
Perhaps, just perhaps some MPs are slowly becoming awake to what is actually going on. If a few doctors begin to stand up and speak out about what is actually going on regarding testing in hospitals then the rest will follow.
What hell are you going on about
 

bear66

Well-known member
#80
Ok Bear, why not? I'm not being argumentative, I'm generally interested as to why you think so.
There a link below which discusses the four known seasonal viruses. Viruses don't have to be seasonal as SARS and MERS aren't. Novel coronaviruse are rare and their novelty makes them unpredictable. We'll get a better understanding over the next 5-10 years which way it goes.
Link
 
Top
X