Everybody agrees we need to recruit smarter and buy to sell.I don't think we disagree on most of the transfer policy, your thoughts on cheaper players are the same as mine, are certainly correct for times when we're rebuilding, refinancing, expecting mid table or maybe playoffs, or players who can pay off next year or the year after. My main point is the team is ready to be top two, if we get the right striker, who will be good on day 0. As I believe that, I think we need to buy with much more confidence, and with that come expense. I also think we can afford it, more so now than we've ever been able to (other than the year we came down and blew a good team on Monk).
Like I say, I think the time has gone to find a cheap striker for this year, who will perform, we tried last year and it never worked, but it worked in positions like for Jones, Crooks, Dijksteele, probably McGree etc.
I think we think Larson might have chance to be similar level, and maybe cheaper. It's more of a gamble to me, but far less of a gamble than a £2m player from League 1 or Hoppe or whatever, same with punting £5m on Payero who nobody had heard of. A prem loan for someone like Armstrong would be fine too, but means we need to repeat that next year or spend next year. Seemingly this is also going to be hard to do, as there's big competition for these players and they're reliant on other exits. Similar with Muniz, I think he would be good, but not as good as Gyokeres, but would be cheaper, maybe even loan, which is a shot to nothing really.
If we have £20m to punt £15m on Gyokeres and £5m on a backup centre mid, and some freebies/ loans elsewhere then that's cool with me, backup positions are far less important. I'd even spend the £15m if that's all we had (I think we have more though), and hope we bring in someone cheap in CM who isn't needed and can always fall back on McNair if need be (not ideal mind). That would catch us out with squad depth mind, but just because the squad wasn't good enough, it wouldn't mean Gyokeres failed and we'd still have him for some time. I think we could get £10m + £5m on promotion, or £5m after 50 games/ a sell on %. I think £15m outright is worse case.
I can see us not getting a prem loan, not getting Larson and then realising we can't waste this opportunity so will have the money sat there to go in on Gyokeres near the end of the window. Risky though as Cov may not sell if they don't have time for a replacement, so we may end up giving them one of ours. Maybe they've already got one lined up.
It's like snakes and ladders, we're near the top now, thanks to some good and largely cost effective and profitable rebuilding and a good manager, and some pretty good work from Pulis and Warnock too. We just need to roll the dice and get a 4 or over to get ahead. If we don't roll the dice and sit on our hands someone else will get in front of us, if we roll anything less than a 4 we could hit a snake and end up back at square one. I don't want three more years of the champo, and Wilder along with some of our better players definitely won't.
What about all the players who you're ignoring too?You are ignoring the majority of the dataset. You are looking for someone that has been top scorer once and then working backwards to find out how much they cost but players repeat their performance or leave. Players like Mitrovic 3/3 seasons he has been in the top scorers. Rhodes 4x, Grant 2x, Toney 1, Sharp 5x, McCormack 5x, Grabban 6x, Deeney 4x, Watkins 3x, Pukki 2x, Vydra 3x, Gayle 3x, Britt 5x, Wood 3x, Gray 3x, Murphy 4x, Murray 3x and many many more etc. And most of these players could have another 5 or 6 each if they stayed in the championship instead of the PL.
You know how wrong that is in the context of your argument.
Notice how I asked the question "if you could have bought any of these players after their first good season then would it have been good value?". That's where we are now Gyokeres. I'm not suggesting waiting 3 years so we are certain he's a good player and he's scored 60 goals and we've missed his peak. Obviously as players get older they get worse. Vydra hasn't played regular football for 4 years but I think we would have been happy buying him when he went from Derby to Burnley.
Good question. Now if signed him for some experience, instead of Hoppe. Then we could use the 2.5m Hoppe money to increase our offer for Larsen. Could do worse, I suppose
Did any of them actually go for £10m+ after ONE good season though? Coventry want more than 10 for Gyokores. That's my point. If he was £5m he'd be my #1 choice but at 10-15 it's too risky.Notice how I asked the question "if you could have bought any of these players after their first good season then would it have been good value?". That's where we are now Gyokeres. I'm not suggesting waiting 3 years so we are certain he's a good player and he's scored 60 goals and we've missed his peak. Obviously as players get older they get worse. Vydra hasn't played regular football for 4 years but I think we would have been happy buying him when he went from Derby to Burnley.
Not many to a championship team but some of them went to PL teams, others got promoted, others stayed and did one of those things later. Most of them their teams didn't want to sell. Coventry don't, hence the high price. Teams that have a realistic chance of promotion themselves would hang on to them. Difference with Coventry is I don't think they do so they can keep him and not get promoted and make money that way or they can cash him now and try to improve the whole squad. Maybe buy a few more projects of their own.Did any of them actually go for £10m+ after ONE good season though? Coventry want more than 10 for Gyokores. That's my point. If he was £5m he'd be my #1 choice but at 10-15 it's too risky.
I'd probably take Vydra too for free. Probably want £2m wages. Low risk.
Agree there foggy, they played some lovely football last season & ran rings round us at the Riverside, one game we were very fortunate to get all 3 pointsI'd say Coventry would be mad to sell him if they can hang on to him and not lose any other of their stars they will right up there this season so why sell unless they need the money or get a crazy offer