Bashar al-Assad - Is His Time Up?

I think there is a very real danger that Assad’s fall would open the door to Muslim fundamentalists who will serve only to further destabilise the region.

This is so often the case when Dictators are removed, especially in that area.
 
Redwurzel said:
Turkey is a secular country, but there is some danger that Islamic fundamentalist could spread into Turkey ....
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I think you need to have a closer look at the history of Islam in Turkey, and the current position of Erdoğan/Turkey and the relationships esp re: Sunni and Shia.

OK, very few predicted the revolution in Iran and the rejection of any semblance of 'western' values there. I guess the same could happen in Turkey. But, even if the more liberal element in Turkey doesn't want this, more importantly, someone else doesn't - Erdoğan.

.... related, and may be relevant one day, if you get the chance listen to the episode of 'The Rest is Politics US' where Scaramucci relates how he tried to explain Sykes-Picot to Trump.

I have a house in Turkey. As I say, majority Muslim country, earthquake zone, bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq .... what could go wrong? 😉
 
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Scrote

I am in a history group and a member gave a talk on Sykes/Picot Treaty which divided up the Middle East in 1918. It was quite a nasty piece of work, as it excluded the Arabs (what they were called at the time) who had fought the Ottoman Turks in WW1 to help the British, who were struggling the defeat them. The Arabs believed there were fighting for their independence, but the British and French did a deal behind their backs in secret. There is a scene in film "Lawrence of Arabia" where Lawrence is told by a French official near the end of the War. Lawrence is distraught as he promised King Faisal, a large Arab State and he knew the price the Arabs had paid to support the British.
 
masquesmog said:
I think you need to have a closer look at the history of Islam in Turkey, and the current position of Erdoğan/Turkey and the relationships esp re: Sunni and Shia.

OK, very few predicted the revolution in Iran and the rejection of any semblance of 'western' values there. I guess the same could happen in Turkey. But, even if the more liberal element in Turkey doesn't want this, more importantly, someone else doesn't - Erdoğan.
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I fully agree with the last sentence that's why he supports the current Syrian Government and doesn't support the rebels who could open the door for a more radical religious element.

A number of countries that were considered liberal in the past have moved in a more radical Islamic position, not just Iran - Algeria is one that comes to mind, where women are not allowed to show their legs say female athletes. In Afghanistan women are now not allowed to work, where in the past women could do almost any job and even wore western dress in urban areas. I have seen reliable TV programmes that suggest Erdogan is wary of Islamic fundamentalism and sees it as a threat.
 
Redwurzel said:
I fully agree with the last sentence that's why he supports the current Syrian Government and doesn't support the rebels who could open the door for a more radical religious element.

A number of countries that were considered liberal in the past have moved in a more radical Islamic position, not just Iran - Algeria is one that comes to mind, where women are not allowed to show their legs say female athletes. In Afghanistan women are now not allowed to work, where in the past women could do almost any job and even wore western dress in urban areas. I have seen reliable TV programmes that suggest Erdogan is wary of Islamic fundamentalism and sees it as a threat.
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As I say, take a closer look at the longer history of how Islam has been practised in Turkey, and not what has happened in Algeria etc.
 
He could go back to 'ed' and set up in the UK.

My mistake. He should have gone to Specsavers.
 
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Hasn’t his plane disappeared of radar? So that means it has been downed or his transponder has been switched off, probably the latter. His wife is a Brit isn’t she, I wonder where she is in hiding?
 
ThePrisoner said:
Weren't the Russians bombing the rebel groups to keep Assad in power? Surely they will have to leave or face war with the new powers that be?
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Yes, they were but it seems like Russia were no longer willing to support Assad (for whatever reason), US and other countries will have a keen eye on increasing their presence in the region, it will help Ukraine etc etc
 
cliverd said:
Yes, they were but it seems like Russia were no longer willing to support Assad (for whatever reason), US and other countries will have a keen eye on increasing their presence in the region, it will help Ukraine etc etc
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Couldn’t afford to waste the bombs and ammunition they keep running low in Ukraine.
 
I’m in Glasgow there’s cars sounding horns with Syrian/Lebanese flags hung out of them so looks like the Dictator has gone?
 
masquesmog said:
I think you need to have a closer look at the history of Islam in Turkey, and the current position of Erdoğan/Turkey and the relationships esp re: Sunni and Shia.

OK, very few predicted the revolution in Iran and the rejection of any semblance of 'western' values there. I guess the same could happen in Turkey. But, even if the more liberal element in Turkey doesn't want this, more importantly, someone else doesn't - Erdoğan.

.... related, and may be relevant one day, if you get the chance listen to the episode of 'The Rest is Politics US' where Scaramucci relates how he tried to explain Sykes-Picot to Trump.

I have a house in Turkey. As I say, majority Muslim country, earthquake zone, bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq .... what could go wrong? 😉
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Yeah, and a good measure of how 'secular' any country really is (as in a State which is neutral with regards to religious belief) is to look at how the religious minorities are treated. The Syriac Church in Turkey would not give a good report on the current regime.
 
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