Are the Government massaging the death rate.

[bear66]

Does anybody see the point in these daily briefings anymore?

I'd change it to weekly. The same repetitive questions are been asked by the same journalists and avoided by different members of government every evening.

A short bulletin accessible by media regarding figures and updates etc posted every day would be more than sufficient.

I almost didn't watch tonight, although they almost answered a few of the questions tonight. There's certainly not going to be an apology or acceptance that a better decision could have been made. One question that was ignored would have been interesting to hear an answer: which businesses will have the most effect when they come back after the lockdown? This will be cost benefits of furlough plus new tax revenue, but also those that will provide social benefits for people to suppress future mental health needs.

The major need for it is, I'd say, because there is no Parliament to hold the government to account although that will soon change. I am impressed by the Scottish presentation as it's informative and interesting, so it could be done better.

 

[Alvez_48]

I've got a question regarding ons figures.

I've read that since march 20th they've included 'provisional covid deaths' in statistics as well as registered deaths.

Does this not mean there's a likelihood of double counting? Just wondering I've genuinely not looked into it.

 

[Lefty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1252202756972204034

 

[bear66]

I've got a question regarding ons figures.

I've read that since march 20th they've included 'provisional covid deaths' in statistics as well as registered deaths.

Does this not mean there's a likelihood of double counting? Just wondering I've genuinely not looked into it.

ONS for week to 3 April
The simple answer is no. It's totally independent of the daily figures given by hospitals. So, it compares death certificate numbers with hospital declared numbers and also the number of deaths compared with previous weeks and historical deaths for that week. The ONS figures also show 2 specific figures: Covid-19 and other respiratory deaths (pneumonia).
A very approximate summary up to 3 Apr (we'll get to 10 Apr tomorrow):

There were 10% higher figures on death certificates compared with hospitals.

There were 6000 extra deaths than typical average for that week. 3500 Covid-19, 500 extra pneumonia deaths compared with 'normal' and 2000 unexplained (Whitty said this was a worry - it could be Covid-19 but not registered, or people not going to a&e for some reason or something else that's happening.)

It was the highest weekly death rate recorded (since 2000)

There'll be another update tomorrow but it'll be 11 dats out of date.

 

[Alvez_48]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1252202756972204034

Not to defend the Tory government but some of that disparity is likely to be what each country 'counts' as a covid death.

I would like to see how they dealt with their care homes there, I have a feeling they protected the most vulnerable far better than we have.

 

[Alvez_48]

ONS for week to 3 April
The simple answer is no. It's totally independent of the daily figures given by hospitals. So, it compares death certificate numbers with hospital declared numbers and also the number of deaths compared with previous weeks and historical deaths for that week. The ONS figures also show 2 specific figures: Covid-19 and other respiratory deaths (pneumonia).
A very approximate summary up to 3 Apr (we'll get to 10 Apr tomorrow):

There were 10% higher figures on death certificates compared with hospitals.

There were 6000 extra deaths than typical average for that week. 3500 Covid-19, 500 extra pneumonia deaths compared with 'normal' and 2000 unexplained (Whitty said this was a worry - it could be Covid-19 but not registered, or people not going to a&e for some reason or something else that's happening.)

It was the highest weekly death rate recorded (since 2000)

There'll be another update tomorrow but it'll be 11 dats out of date.

But you aren't answering my question, the fact they count provisional deaths as well as registered deaths surely increases a risk of double counting.. or are you claiming they don't do that because I can provide you a source, from the ONS.

 

[Lefty]

Not to defend the Tory government but some of that disparity is likely to be what each country 'counts' as a covid death.

I would like to see how they dealt with their care homes there, I have a feeling they protected the most vulnerable far better than we have.

Germany have done a lot more testing than us, so their figures should be more accurate, but really it's only after the reporting of all deaths and compared to the norm that will give us a real indication.

 

[bear66]

But you aren't answering my question, the fact they count provisional deaths as well as registered deaths surely increases a risk of double counting.. or are you claiming they don't do that because I can provide you a source, from the ONS.

What's a provisional death? The ONS only count registered deaths which is why their data is far behind where we are. We've had 12,500 deaths in hospitals since the last report.

 

[bear66]

What's a provisional death? The ONS only count registered deaths which is why their data is far behind where we are. We've had 12,500 deaths in hospitals since the last report.

The report has changed since I last read it!!!

They do now give a provisional figure (the figures I gave were confirmed up to 3 Apr) to 10 Apr to give a better 'picture' of what's happening to presumably help them with decisions. The figure the medical bod gave today was the confirmed 3 Apr figure so they don't seem to be publicly using provisional figures. Also the graph they show only has the confirmed ONS figure on it (the black line that's weeks out of date).

I'll let you know tomorrow how the confirmed and provisional figures compare.

 

[Alvez_48]

What's a provisional death? The ONS only count registered deaths which is why their data is far behind where we are. We've had 12,500 deaths in hospitals since the last report.

'
The ONS system is predicated on the registration of deaths. Meaning they count, not the number of people who die every week, but the number of deaths registered per week. This, naturally, leads to slight delays in the recording of numbers as the registration process can take a few days.
However, with coronavirus deaths, since its a “national emergency”, they are now including “provisional figures” which will be “included in the dataset in subsequent weeks”
'

It was stated in ONS week 12 report here's a screenshot.

 

[Alvez_48]

The report has changed since I last read it!!!

They do now give a provisional figure (the figures I gave were confirmed up to 3 Apr) to 10 Apr to give a better 'picture' of what's happening to presumably help them with decisions. The figure the medical bod gave today was the confirmed 3 Apr figure so they don't seem to be publicly using provisional figures. Also the graph they show only has the confirmed ONS figure on it (the black line that's weeks out of date).

I'll let you know tomorrow how the confirmed and provisional figures compare.

But again does this not create a risk of double counting?
It does doesn't it.

 

[bear66]

But again does this not create a risk of double counting?
It does doesn't it.

We'll find out tomorrow as the provisional figures will be corrected for that date. The major concern is that this virus is causing far more deaths than Covid-19 because of behavioural changes of the population and how the NHS is carrying out normal emergency work.

Figure 1 from ONS report for week ending 3 April.

 

[Alvez_48]

We'll find out tomorrow as the provisional figures will be corrected for that date. The major concern is that this virus is causing far more deaths than Covid-19 because of behavioural changes of the population and how the NHS is carrying out normal emergency work.

Figure 1 from ONS report for week ending 3 April.

View attachment 2036

But its been changed since week 12...

Why would they do that? It makes no sense at all, you already have the speculated daily numbers why would you add speculated numbers to official weekly registered deaths?
Why hasn't this question been asked in the daily briefings?

 

[bear66]

But its been changed since week 12...

Why would they do that? It makes no sense at all, you already have the speculated daily numbers why would you add speculated numbers to official weekly registered deaths?
Why hasn't this question been asked in the daily briefings?

Not exactly sure what you mean? The change is because more people are dying. Whitty was asked and he said he was really worried about the increase in deaths with so many extra deaths that might not even be Covid-19 but because people are just dying at home instead of calling 999.

The only provisional bit is before the registrar actually signs the death certificate presented to her (it's in the system before he/she signs it of).

 

[Alvez_48]

Not exactly sure what you mean? The change is because more people are dying. Whitty was asked and he said he was really worried about the increase in deaths with so many extra deaths that might not even be Covid-19 but because people are just dying at home instead of calling 999.

The only provisional bit is before the registrar actually signs the death certificate presented to her (it's in the system before he/she signs it of).

Ah ok so there's no possibility of double counting them despite what I posted above.. fair enough, but that's not what the ONS posted.

From my stupid laymen's reading of it, I thought it meant they were putting provisional numbers from the week in and then revising the actual numbers a week later

 

[bear66]

1155 infections in Teesside and 164 in NY in South Tees hospital district.

3% increase in Teesside. Slightly less than the national average. The data doesn't stipulate how many of these are community and how many NHS tests.

 

[Billy Horner]

Seven further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 141.

Four further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, taking total to 55.

South Tees NHS Trust are 4th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the 36th highest (from joint 36th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are joint 16th (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 105th (from joint 104th yesterday) in the country.

 

[Billy Horner]

Ten further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 151.

No further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, total remaining at 55.

South Tees NHS Trust are 4th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the 35th highest (from 36th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 18th (from joint 16th yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 108th (from joint 105th yesterday) in the country.

 

[bear66]

Ten further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 151.

No further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, total remaining at 55.

South Tees NHS Trust are 4th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the 35th highest (from 36th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 18th (from joint 16th yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 108th (from joint 105th yesterday) in the country.

Not a good couple of days.

 

[bear66]

1192 infections in Teesside and 172 in NY in South Tees hospital district.

3.3% increase in Teesside. Same as the national average.