A week before season starts - predict our finishing position?

Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
That's a pessimistic view col. The optimistic view would be that pre season results are irrelevant and have frequently shown to have no bearing on the following season.

Why is it that people with pessimistic views label themselves as realists but optimists don't?

In your post it's like you are even scared to use the term pessimist and have instead substituted it with realist.
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No I wholeheartedly reject that view. To label realists as pessimists can only be a thought based bias that anything other than optimism is pessimism as it suits a certain fact avoidance rhetoric.

A pessimist would consider the worst scenario, a relegation battle potentially. I don’t see that at all, I see a lower mid table as the worst case scenario, based on performance to date and all known information of the players within the squad. I see 6th as potentially achievable if learning, coaching and improvement were factored in as if guaranteed with this squad.

Optimists skew facts and allow bias to infiltrate thinking. I don’t see a place for optimism or pessimism, just realism, which can be a little skewed too. I prefer to see things the way they are based on evidence and sight and will be fluid with my thought process adjusting as the season progresses through performance, results and compute into perceived outcomes as we go along.

You and many others may enjoy the hope the dawning of a new season brings, I would too if I believed the squad was of sufficient quality. It is nowhere near strong enough as yet, it may become so, I pray it will be, my views will alter should we bring in what is so very obviously lacking. We will be starting against Millwall without players who provided 49/84 goals and 25 assists from last season from Akpom, Archer, Watmore, Ramsey and Howson, If you think that is grounds for optimism, good for you, I see it as a reality we need to overcome as quickly as possible. If I was a pessimist I wouldn’t think we will do so, but I believe we can and will try to do so (thats hardly a pessimists view).
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
That's a pessimistic view col. The optimistic view would be that pre season results are irrelevant and have frequently shown to have no bearing on the following season.

Why is it that people with pessimistic views label themselves as realists but optimists don't?

In your post it's like you are even scared to use the term pessimist and have instead substituted it with realist.
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Fantasists - Scott has signed brilliantly, they will all be better than last season's departures (who were all over-rated) and we will kick on after a full Carrick pre season. Akpom will stay because he loves it here, but if he goes then we won't miss him and he was a one season wonder who owed it all to super Riley. We should only sign the Silvero/Rogers types. It is inevitable we will make the top 2. Carrick innit.

Optimists - Scott is the man, we have signed well, just look at the academy. Akpom stays, the window will see more quality arrive for the first team and we have to be realistic about how finances are and how we are dependent on PL clubs making their squad decisions. Better start than last season and Carrick cements a Play off spot.

Pessimists - The signings have been very uninspiring, Chuba will leave for too low a fee at the end of the window, we won't sign anyone of quality and the Villa lads will not return. Injuries are a major problem and Howson will fade badly. Pre season woes will continue into the start of the season and we will drift along in mid table, wondering did we really score all of those goals last season.

Fatalists - The squad is rubbish, the signings are rubbish, Gibson has no intention of investing in the squad and will sell anybody. Scott hasn't got a clue, Akpom will go, we won't bring in anybody any good. We will start badly, Carrick will be off as soon as he gets an offer. We could go down, its happened to bigger clubs.

Realists - We are dependent on PL clubs sorting their squads. There is still time left in the window to recruit the obvious quality we need. Gibson wants his club in the PL for all sorts of reasons and will support the right recruitment; some of which might be very exciting. Injuries will heal. The squad has some quality, some potential and starts with a better coaching team from the start. Our crowd is big and good. But we will start the season with a weaker squad and key injuries versus the second half of last season.

I think Col and I are realists.
Newy is a Fantasist of course :)
 
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Play offs again, which to me is a decent season. I expect Leicester to canter to the title, rather like Burnley last season. The other are much of a muchness, Saints and Leeds might take a while to adapt. Plymouth to be the surprise package.
 
Duffman said:
Would improve my thinking if we get 4 or 5 in before the deadline but currently think realistically around 8th. We are probably about 8th largest club in the Championship this season on crowds, finance, catchment etc so anything above 8th would be great and punching above our weight. UTB
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4th. Half the window done, 75% of our business done. By 31st August our squad will be up to scratch and even if it isn’t where we want it to be, it’s worth bearing in mind that outside the three sides who have come down, we are possibly in the next set of two or three who are the only ones in a positive position to make progress.
 
Otto42 said:
Play offs again, which to me is a decent season. I expect Leicester to canter to the title, rather like Burnley last season. The other are much of a muchness, Saints and Leeds might take a while to adapt. Plymouth to be the surprise package.
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I disagree you see. Maresca isn’t a great manager, and with the losses in that squad he will take time to settle. Leeds under Farke I think storm to the title, and Russell Martin famously underachieves in his first season at a club, don’t expect Saints to make the playoffs. My current tips for top two are Leeds, and if they keep Valerien Ismael, Watford.
 
coluka said:
No I wholeheartedly reject that view. To label realists as pessimists can only be a thought based bias that anything other than optimism is pessimism as it suits a certain fact avoidance rhetoric.

A pessimist would consider the worst scenario, a relegation battle potentially. I don’t see that at all, I see a lower mid table as the worst case scenario, based on performance to date and all known information of the players within the squad. I see 6th as potentially achievable if learning, coaching and improvement were factored in as if guaranteed with this squad.

Optimists skew facts and allow bias to infiltrate thinking. I don’t see a place for optimism or pessimism, just realism, which can be a little skewed too. I prefer to see things the way they are based on evidence and sight and will be fluid with my thought process adjusting as the season progresses through performance, results and compute into perceived outcomes as we go along.

You and many others may enjoy the hope the dawning of a new season brings, I would too if I believed the squad was of sufficient quality. It is nowhere near strong enough as yet, it may become so, I pray it will be, my views will alter should we bring in what is so very obviously lacking. We will be starting against Millwall without players who provided 49/84 goals and 25 assists from last season from Akpom, Archer, Watmore, Ramsey and Howson, If you think that is grounds for optimism, good for you, I see it as a reality we need to overcome as quickly as possible. If I was a pessimist I wouldn’t think we will do so, but I believe we can and will try to do so (thats hardly a pessimists view).
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I'm asking why it's always the pessimistic ones that feel the need to label themselves realists.

It would be interesting to see a thread when Michael Carrick was appointed. Are the ones labelling themselves realists the ones who think he will take the club from the relegation zone to the playoffs. Or would it be the ones with a less rosy view?
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
I'm asking why it's always the pessimistic ones that feel the need to label themselves realists.

It would be interesting to see a thread when Michael Carrick was appointed. Are the ones labelling themselves realists the ones who think he will take the club from the relegation zone to the playoffs. Or would it be the ones with a less rosy view?
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Well I consider myself to have a realistic view of the squad and its abilities from the evidence gathered and witnessed to date. Can it change, yes with quality signings. I thought Carrick was a decent appointment btw. He exceeded my expectations, but the signing of Archer helped, a quality player i was calling for in July last year, as did Ramsey. We blew the play off challengers away thereafter.
Do you consider myself and Indeedido to have a realistic opinion on this or not?
 
coluka said:
Well I consider myself to have a realistic view of the squad and its abilities from the evidence gathered and witnessed to date. Can it change, yes with quality signings. I thought Carrick was a decent appointment btw. He exceeded my expectations, but the signing of Archer helped, a quality player i was calling for in July last year, as did Ramsey. We blew the play off challengers away thereafter.
Do you consider myself and Indeedido to have a realistic opinion on this or not?
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I have no idea. We will see who the realists are once the season starts. As things stand I'd say nudelion holds the realist crown, as he was among the few with a wild enough imagination to predict how well we would do last season.
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
I have no idea. We will see who the realists are once the season starts. As things stand I'd say nudelion holds the realist crown, as he was among the few with a wild enough imagination to predict how well we would do last season.
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I doubt we ever will, the people claiming to be realists, like me are calling it based on the squad we currently have. You are being optimistic but I don’t know whether you are calling that on the squad we currently have or based on trust we will add quality. Many have said they would adjust their position once the window is shut. I certainly will be depending on who the signings are, what we know of them and how they perform in their first few games. The window closes 5 games in I believe, we may add week by week and things may change, so unless we were to go with what we have now, which we both know we wont be doing that, then its a moot point as we’ll never know. 4 quality additions (3 if Chuba stays and is fit) would transform this squad from a mid table squad to one capable of challenging for top 2.
 
I think some people are in for a shock unless we dramatically improve the squad on what we have now. As it stands we are a pale shadow of the team we had at our disposal last season. Can’t see anywhere near the goal output of last season and the full backs situation looks a major issue - throw in some key players currently injured, with no return date in sight i can see us struggling quite badly early on.
 
adammarc_98 said:
4th. Half the window done, 75% of our business done. By 31st August our squad will be up to scratch and even if it isn’t where we want it to be, it’s worth bearing in mind that outside the three sides who have come down, we are possibly in the next set of two or three who are the only ones in a positive position to make progress.
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We have lost Giles assists - a major loss.
We have lost Archer’s link up play and goals - a major loss
We have no idea what is happening with Akpom. Unlike others he hasn't signed his contract and the decision on his future might be taken out of his hands - we can’t allow circa £8m to walk out the door.
We have no idea what is happening with Howson. Once he got injured our team collapsed in the play offs. You can’t underestimate his importance. Where is he, how bad is the injury that he has been out since May?
Not sure on the loss of Ramsey as he was in and out with injury but the other four are a massive loss at the start of our new season.
On the signings, they are all bargain basement with high hopes but no certainty on what they will deliver at this level particularly in the coming weeks.
My prediction of us finishing 8th is based on far bigger / stronger clubs coming down than those going up (with maybe the exception of Burnley). With other teams definitely strengthening and with very rich owners - the likes of Sunderland, Birmingham, Sheff Wed, Coventry (if they spend well) and WBA. Add in a good Swansea team on their day a resurgent Ipswich and a Stoke side that played us off the park but lacked consistency and this is going to be a tough season. 8th is realistic not pessimistic looking at it coldly and without my Boro goggles on. We need experienced reinforcements in my humble opinion but Carrick knows that and has said so himself UTB
 
As it stands now, & Akpom still at the club.. I think a good season would be playoffs..

If we can get a striker, like Archer.. a creative midfielder like Ramsey.. & a good leftback.. like Frank Quedrue 👍 I'd be well happy.. think we could push top spots..
 
The thing with the championship it just takes two players to have a great season and a decent spine to be challenging.

Last year we had Akpom being incredible.

Giles was great until Feb when his assissts dried up and Archer was superb from Feb till the playoffs.

On top of that we had a decent group of Lenihan, Howson, Hackney, McGree and Forss.

If one of the new lads clicks, Akpom stays and Coulson comes of age we could be automatic - if Akpom leaves and none of the new lads click we could be mid table.

No one predicted Akpom last year, or Jones form in 21/22, or Spence's form for Forrest. The championship is difficult to predict and hinges on turns of form.

The relegated teams are normally the only ones that run away with it - but some years 2 out of 3 fall apart because they can't get rid on the losing mentality quick enough.

Fancy Hackney to be in the team of the season - a lot depends on Akpom, and the full back situation
 
Lose
Akpom
Archer
Ramsay
Giles
Mcnair
Steffen
Let's face it they were all our best players .
Replace them with
LB
DM
Silvera
Rogers
Dieng
We are weaker , so need to replace them with better .
Watch this space .
 
As others have said depends on recruitment for me.
A few savvy loan deals, the calibre of which we had last season, things look a lot brighter

I back Carrick and think he's the man for us.

But I worry we're not in a financial position to match our ambition, and am concerned we're currently weaker than we were last season.

I hope I'm wrong but I see us battling to make playoffs (though wouldn't be surprised at a mid table or conversely 4th/5th place)

I don't see us getting relegated, and I don't see us walking the league. Everything else is up for grabs at least.

Would love to see Akpom stay and repeat form from last season. I think if he does stay he makes double figures but would be amazed if he scores as many as he did last season this time around.
If he leaves I'd be surprised if we could find a suitable replacement.

Pessimistic maybe. It's the hope over multiple seasons that kills you 😂
 
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