A Covid question on the Winter Death Scenarios

[Heine_Otto]

Sorry for yet another covid thread, this slide was presented on Saturday evening at the press conference (third slide down) - but I don't think it was explained particularly well and I'm wondering if anyone can explain it please?

All of the models show a peak in December or January, which then falls away quite quickly. These models are based on no changes in policy or behaviour, so why the sudden decline? Herd immunity? Seasonality? Or something different?

 

[bear66]

Sorry for yet another covid thread, this slide was presented on Saturday evening at the press conference (third slide down) - but I don't think it was explained particularly well and I'm wondering if anyone can explain it please?

All of the models show a peak in December or January, which then falls away quite quickly. These models are based on no changes in policy or behaviour, so why the sudden decline? Herd immunity? Seasonality? Or something different?

It says no change in policy. Current policy is the Tier system. Possibly it's the view that the Tier system will have some effect in 'limiting' the peak.

 

[Jonny Ingbar]

At the obvious risk of repeating another thread, it can only be seasonal I think.

 

[bear66]

At the obvious risk of repeating another thread, it can only be seasonal I think.

Deaths don't fall off to zero with seasonal viruses like the flu. As I replied in the other thread, the five year average for flu deaths in August are about a third of the flu deaths in January.