Buy Gyokeres for any price?
- Thread starter lostinyorkshire
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festa5
Well-known member
There's a reason no-one other than us and Fulham have been linked. It's not because he's no good is it?
If the total package was the Spence money and the Tav money was used to strengthen the other positions then maybe. But by all accounts £10-12m is still well short of their valuation. And even that is a lot for a championship club to drop on one player. Especially one that needs about 4 other players in.
If the total package was the Spence money and the Tav money was used to strengthen the other positions then maybe. But by all accounts £10-12m is still well short of their valuation. And even that is a lot for a championship club to drop on one player. Especially one that needs about 4 other players in.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Not sure about all this eggs in one basket talk, we've still got Forss, Watmore, Coburn, Akpom and have some goals/ talent in support with Giles, Jones, Crooks, Mcgree etc, we will also probably compliment this with Muniz or some other (for cheap/ free/ loan).
You need top strikers/ very good players to go up (above the championship average), and even when he had a relatively quite game on Sat, he still pulled out one piece of absolute magic. Bad players don't do that, and I've not seen one of our strikers do something similar, with that composure, for years, and that was week 1.
Yes, he's had one good season, but a season is 46 games, and he was their best player over those 46 games, and those 46 games are in the league we're in. In one of those games he absolutely destroyed us, and we're meant to be half decent.
We sold Spence for 12m, who doesn't need replacing, as we had better, and we've also got a backup for nothing (and other cover). We got Giles for nothing, who looks to be as good as effective as Jones (albeit in a different way). If we use that money or half of it on some CM cover, then it should free up the Tav money to use on a striker (purchase) and a loan. Assuming we are free to spend that money.
I see Gyokeres as a good buy for 15m, for what we need, and a better option than 2 x 7m unproven strikers, or 3 x 5m unproven strikers. Even if the latter two pay off (which either of them getting 17 goals is unlikely), then there's a good chance Gyokeres would pay off more.
End of the day, there's little point having 5 x 5m strikers, as ultimately 15m of that goes on the bench, and the two up top are only worth 10m. If you have a 15m + 5m + 5m + two free then you've got 5m on the bench largely wasted, and up front 20m worth of players. Worse case scenario is Gyokeres plays like a 5m player, best case is he plays like a £25m player.
None of last years strikers really worked, Connolly, Ikpeazu, Balogun, Sporar etc, and they're all in the 1-7m value bracket. Balogun may be worth more, but he's just worth more as he's one for the future. We took a gamble he would pay off early, he didn't. We took a 6m gamble on Payero, that backfired and we won't get a penny back on that.
Gambles are ok, but they need to be complimented with signings which are a practical guarantee. Even if Gyokeres didn't pay off at £15m, then we would still likely have a 7m player on our hands at worst (which would still have been better than anything we had last year).
FFP probably won't come into it, we've just sold 2 players for 25m, and not spent a great deal in the last few years. Yes, our books will have been hammered by Covid, but everyone's has, and I would imagine we'll be in a lot better financial position than most.
Just in transfers we look to be about £50m up over the last 6 years.
22/23 + £23m
21/21 - £9m
20/21 - £2.5m
19/20 +£9m
18/19 +£24m
17/18 - £1m
You need top strikers/ very good players to go up (above the championship average), and even when he had a relatively quite game on Sat, he still pulled out one piece of absolute magic. Bad players don't do that, and I've not seen one of our strikers do something similar, with that composure, for years, and that was week 1.
Yes, he's had one good season, but a season is 46 games, and he was their best player over those 46 games, and those 46 games are in the league we're in. In one of those games he absolutely destroyed us, and we're meant to be half decent.
We sold Spence for 12m, who doesn't need replacing, as we had better, and we've also got a backup for nothing (and other cover). We got Giles for nothing, who looks to be as good as effective as Jones (albeit in a different way). If we use that money or half of it on some CM cover, then it should free up the Tav money to use on a striker (purchase) and a loan. Assuming we are free to spend that money.
I see Gyokeres as a good buy for 15m, for what we need, and a better option than 2 x 7m unproven strikers, or 3 x 5m unproven strikers. Even if the latter two pay off (which either of them getting 17 goals is unlikely), then there's a good chance Gyokeres would pay off more.
End of the day, there's little point having 5 x 5m strikers, as ultimately 15m of that goes on the bench, and the two up top are only worth 10m. If you have a 15m + 5m + 5m + two free then you've got 5m on the bench largely wasted, and up front 20m worth of players. Worse case scenario is Gyokeres plays like a 5m player, best case is he plays like a £25m player.
None of last years strikers really worked, Connolly, Ikpeazu, Balogun, Sporar etc, and they're all in the 1-7m value bracket. Balogun may be worth more, but he's just worth more as he's one for the future. We took a gamble he would pay off early, he didn't. We took a 6m gamble on Payero, that backfired and we won't get a penny back on that.
Gambles are ok, but they need to be complimented with signings which are a practical guarantee. Even if Gyokeres didn't pay off at £15m, then we would still likely have a 7m player on our hands at worst (which would still have been better than anything we had last year).
FFP probably won't come into it, we've just sold 2 players for 25m, and not spent a great deal in the last few years. Yes, our books will have been hammered by Covid, but everyone's has, and I would imagine we'll be in a lot better financial position than most.
Just in transfers we look to be about £50m up over the last 6 years.
22/23 + £23m
21/21 - £9m
20/21 - £2.5m
19/20 +£9m
18/19 +£24m
17/18 - £1m
I would have said no but then his goal at the weekend reminded me what he is capable of. He looks like a proper striker, a safe bet. Technically he is capable, this wouldn't be like signing Britt who couldn't trap a bag of sand. His goal on Sunday reminded me a bit of Harry Kane. I think he'll go on to big things.
At the current moment I see him a bit like Ivan Toney when he went to Brentford. Nobody was saying they had overpaid for him. It was a really obvious transfer and that he would come good and do the business. How much would they get for him now?
We can't afford to spend big money and he be a mega flop but can we afford not to buy him and he become the next Harry Kane? We've seen the difference a top quality sorry can make to a championship team. We had Mitrovic and Solanke at the top 2 last season and they were a huge part of why those teams got promoted.
If we always play it safe we're more likely to stay in the championship.
At the current moment I see him a bit like Ivan Toney when he went to Brentford. Nobody was saying they had overpaid for him. It was a really obvious transfer and that he would come good and do the business. How much would they get for him now?
We can't afford to spend big money and he be a mega flop but can we afford not to buy him and he become the next Harry Kane? We've seen the difference a top quality sorry can make to a championship team. We had Mitrovic and Solanke at the top 2 last season and they were a huge part of why those teams got promoted.
If we always play it safe we're more likely to stay in the championship.
Chappy112
Well-known member
I’ll never understand this idea that we NEED to spend a fortune on proven strikers at this level. Look at the teams who’ve gone up lately, that don’t have parachute money or Premier League strikers from being relegated, none of them did this.
Forest had Lewis Grabban(12), cost them £6m.
Brentford had Toney(33) and Mbuemo(8) neither proven at this level.
Leeds had Bamford(16) for £7m and West Brom had Charlie Austin(10) and Hal Robson Kanu(9) for £4m and free.
The season before Norwich had Pukki(29) on a free, Sheff Utd had Sharp(23) and McGoldrick(15) for next to nothing and Villa had Abraham(25) on loan.
Some of these players are proven at this level but most aren’t and none of them cost a fortune, all these clubs were in a similar position as us in that they hadn’t been in the Premier League the previous season.
Spending £15m on Gyokeres is reckless and highly unnecessary, you don’t even need 20+ goals from a striker although it would help, we just need a solid group who can contribute. As Wilder says the 5 strikers need 40 goals between them, that’s only 8 each.
If we signed Gyokeres then you’d have to imagine our strikers would be Gyokeres, Forss, Watmore, Muniz and Coburn? If we went the other route it could be Larsen, Hoppe, Forss, Muniz and Watmore? Or maybe even swap Watmore for another Premier League loan. Speculation of course but the 2nd group looks stronger and has a higher chance of a good resale value. We still need 2 midfielders and an LCB, signing Gyokeres for silly money limits our ability to strengthen the squad.
Forest had Lewis Grabban(12), cost them £6m.
Brentford had Toney(33) and Mbuemo(8) neither proven at this level.
Leeds had Bamford(16) for £7m and West Brom had Charlie Austin(10) and Hal Robson Kanu(9) for £4m and free.
The season before Norwich had Pukki(29) on a free, Sheff Utd had Sharp(23) and McGoldrick(15) for next to nothing and Villa had Abraham(25) on loan.
Some of these players are proven at this level but most aren’t and none of them cost a fortune, all these clubs were in a similar position as us in that they hadn’t been in the Premier League the previous season.
Spending £15m on Gyokeres is reckless and highly unnecessary, you don’t even need 20+ goals from a striker although it would help, we just need a solid group who can contribute. As Wilder says the 5 strikers need 40 goals between them, that’s only 8 each.
If we signed Gyokeres then you’d have to imagine our strikers would be Gyokeres, Forss, Watmore, Muniz and Coburn? If we went the other route it could be Larsen, Hoppe, Forss, Muniz and Watmore? Or maybe even swap Watmore for another Premier League loan. Speculation of course but the 2nd group looks stronger and has a higher chance of a good resale value. We still need 2 midfielders and an LCB, signing Gyokeres for silly money limits our ability to strengthen the squad.
TeaCider
Well-known member
Brentford paid £5m up front for Toney on the back of 4 seasons of consistent goalscoring in League One from a young age.
People weren't saying they'd overpaid because the fee was a good one to pay.
They'd also just made £50m in player sales.
We'd be paying three times that for a player who's had one good season, admittedly at a higher level, having made significantly less money in player sales even with add-ons.
Add to that, we need plenty of other signings too.
I'd absolutely love us to sign Gyokeres, and I'd be all on board if we did, despite my reservations about the cost, but that fee is huge at this level without parachute payments.
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Frozen Horse
Well-known member
Unless they have a dire financial crisis, I don't see why Coventry would sell for less than we got for Tav or Spence, and plenty on here believe we sold them cheap.
Goal scorers cost more than any other type of player.
Goal scorers cost more than any other type of player.
indeedido
Well-known member
£15m would get the best striker in this league.
Not only is he an excellent striker, he is an excellent footballer.
He is young, an international and will play PL football.
A promotion season with Boro would increase his value to over £25m, or stop us having to shell out that for a striker good enough in the PL.
£15m would cost Boro £3m in amortisation this season on a 5 year contract. They have just got a £22.5m pure profit boost this season from the sale of Spence and Tavernier.
This is not all eggs in one basket by a long way.
Gibson gambled significantly to get us up in 2015-16. We had no assets to sell back then and he had to finance the recruitment.
He doesn't have to this time, Spence and Tavernier have.
Give Wilder the tools to go up this season, not just indulge Scott's fantasies and ego.
Not only is he an excellent striker, he is an excellent footballer.
He is young, an international and will play PL football.
A promotion season with Boro would increase his value to over £25m, or stop us having to shell out that for a striker good enough in the PL.
£15m would cost Boro £3m in amortisation this season on a 5 year contract. They have just got a £22.5m pure profit boost this season from the sale of Spence and Tavernier.
This is not all eggs in one basket by a long way.
Gibson gambled significantly to get us up in 2015-16. We had no assets to sell back then and he had to finance the recruitment.
He doesn't have to this time, Spence and Tavernier have.
Give Wilder the tools to go up this season, not just indulge Scott's fantasies and ego.
indeedido
Well-known member
He's fantastic but you wouldn't spend more than £8m on him?
Lunatic.
There is a lot of confirmation bias in these stats though. In fairness it's impossible to guarantee anything but the premise here is that you can get promoted by not spending big on a single striker. You can point to all the successes but in that group you have to include all of the failures. We had how many different strikers last season that were low cost. How did they all do? It is very easy to spot the big scorers that were cheap and say "we should do that". The chances of getting a striker that has never been good before and turning him into a top goalscorer is fairly low. You get a few a season manage it. Chances are you sign someone that has scored 5 goals per season at this level and they continue to do so or you sign someone who has done it at a lower level who might fail to step up or you sign someone that can't get in a PL team and you realise they never will.
Signing proven players is more reliable, admittedly it hasn't been for us in the past but I'd have more confidence in our recruitment team these days than I have in the past.
If someone had offered us Gyokeres as a straight swap for Tav/Spence would we have taken it? Almost definitely. If that is the case then what is the difference between spending that cash value instead?
I wouldn't say sign at any cost. There is obviously an upper limit and it isn't for me to decide. I just think Gyokeres is the sort of player that we will look at in January when we're too far off the league leaders to be aiming for the autos and he's already got Cov 12-15 goals and we are lamenting the fact we played it safe with a £3-6m player who has scored 6 goals instead.
Chappy112
Well-known member
There aren’t many players I’d spend more than £8m on at our level that we could attract. It has nothing to do with Gyokeres, it’s what I think we should be limiting our spend to on a single player. If Messi was available for £50m and would come to us I wouldn’t think the club should do it either.
viv_andersons_nana
Well-known member
That goal he scored on Sunday was absolute class. We’ve not had someone who does that sort of thing consistently since Bamford left. Clever movement, nice footwork, a good strike on goal. But £15m, I’m not sure about that. We’ve had our fingers burned before. The key is to find the next Gyokeres.
Chappy112
Well-known member
I haven’t just made a list of the success stories, I’ve literally listed every club that’s got promoted in the last 4 seasons that wasn’t in the Premier League the previous year. It’s proof that you don’t need to spend big, in fact no club that has got promotion in the last 4 years from the same position as us has spent big on a striker.
I’m still waiting for someone to point me to the proof that this has ever worked and I’ve been waiting for days now. When has a club in our position spent £15m on a striker and got promotion? The closest you will probably find are Andre Gray to Burnley for £10m and Jordan Rhodes to us for £10m.
Way_Out_West
Well-known member
And if Cov want £20m, you'd want the club to pay that?
You have picked the success stories by just picking the promoted teams. All the teams that didn't get promoted those seasons had strikers that they had bought on a budget that didn't work out necessarily.
As for teams that had spent big money on strikers that worked then last season Fulham and Bournemouth had Mitrovic (£22m) and Solanke (£19m).
It's not about spending big though. It's about buying proven, players that have already scored goals in this league. Leeds with Bamford didn't cost £15m but he was a player that had previously scored a lot at this level, same for Grabban, Sharp, Abraham etc. So the question is really "Is buying proven goalscorers a more reliable indicator of future success than buying unproven?" If the answer is yes then you ask how we can buy proven. If the best option is Gyokeres then the price becomes less relevant. There is obviously an upper limit on what is reasonable but if he's our only option then we're obviously going to have to pay a premium. Are there other proven goalscorers we can buy for less? If so, then go for them but people tend not to want to sell their proven goalscorers or they've already left to go play in the PL.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Exactly.
He had next to zero service on Saturday and they were poor, and he still came up with that on his own. In a good side like ours he could be unreal.
I don't see how he's not almost a sure thing, he was their players player of the year, and close second as fans player of the year behind Hamer (also a V good player, being touted to move to the prem).
It's not like if we punt £15m and it doesn't work out that well get £0 for him, we'd still get half back (at least) and he'd still probably be the best striker we own. At only 24 we can hold onto him for a few seasons and still get money back for him at 27 if we needed to.
We don't have the best track record trying to find cheap strikers, who want to come, this is about as sure a bet of any who I think we could get up here. There might be other loan options, but they're also just punting money away on loan fees, and if coming from the prem they're likely players who are not playing (and hence not good enough for the prem), and on bigger wages. They certainly don't work out free. We probably chucked a lot of money at Connolly and Balogun and got next to zero back.
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
Can Gyokeres do it consistently, and would he do it consistently for us?
Ive seen him play well a few times, he clearly had a good season last season, and his goal on Saturday was quality. But lots of players can have a good season in the championship; for some, that season is the pinnacle of their career.
I'd think he's got a 50/50 chance of being the striker we need if we signed him. I'd not gamble 15m in that. 8m I'd be interested, but I don't expect that would be enough for Cov.
TeaCider
Well-known member
Solanke was signed when Bournemouth were in the Premier League, a year and a half before they were relegated to the Championship.
Mitrovic was signed permanently when Fulham were promoted to the Premier League, he was only on loan until then.
In both cases they were already in the top flight and had the money when they spent big on them.