It's all about the swing state. Trump won't flip any of the marginal Dem states. It simply isn't going to happen. Trump needs to retain the majority of the swing states he won last time.
He won 304-227 votes. He looks certain to lose Michigan which is 16 votes. 7% Biden lead. So that would make it Trump:288-Biden:243. The hit the motor industry had with steel costs rising through his trade wars were felt in this region. His promises of motor industry prosperity haven't materialised even before the pandemic, not in the levels he promised.
Next swing state to look at is Pennsylvania at 6.7% lead for Biden. That's 20 votes and seems certain to flip. So that makes it Trump:266-Biden:263. It was rural Pennsylvania which swung it particularly with poorer turn out in the Philli region. My mates from this area feel certain it won't happen.
Next is Wisconsin at 6%, he screwed Harley Davidson up and the Milwaukee region is propped up by that business, it's a total institution for the locals with local supply chains involved. But he screwed them over. His failed promises, his bitter twisted behaviour at anyone who opposes him have cost him this state. 6% is almost certainly not retrievable. The 10 seats flip the presidency Trump:256-Biden:273.
The only question remaining is will it be a rout? Florida and North Carolina could very much flip and see 44 more votes flip. Trump:212-Biden:317 beyond Trumps win. Iowa, Arizona, Ohio are all at risk but a lot tighter but if all flipped it would be an utter humiliation for Trump with 35 votes at risk, it would be Trump:177-Biden:353. That would be nearly as bad as John McCain vs Obama