It’s looking like a potential landslide victory for Joe Biden

buffaloboro said:
I really don't know if you can trust these anymore, what people say and what they do in the ballot box are different
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Of course you can trust them within 2 or 4% error rate. Brexit and Trump first time were both in that error range.

The Biden margin is way beyond the error rate, and you can tell that Trump knows he's on for a hiding because his behaviour and rhetoric has become even more extreme and erratic in the last 2 weeks.
 
Pog said:
The polls last time were within the margin of error.

They’ve factored in the small errors from 2016 this time around.

Even if they’re wrong by the same amount they were in 2016 on top of what they’ve already factored in, Biden still wins.

Trump needs a miracle.
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Are the polls in the marginal seats?
 
buffaloboro said:
Are the polls in the marginal seats?
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He’s up in the swing states of Pennsylvania (7) and Florida (4).

If Biden wins both of those, it’s game over.

He’s also up 8 in Michigan.

Only thing that can save Trump is voter enthusiasm and voter suppression.
 
Pog said:
He’s up in the swing states of Pennsylvania (7) and Florida (4).

If Biden wins both of those, it’s game over.

He’s also up 8 in Michigan.

Only thing that can save Trump is voter enthusiasm and voter suppression.
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Okay, let's hope.
 
It's all about the swing state. Trump won't flip any of the marginal Dem states. It simply isn't going to happen. Trump needs to retain the majority of the swing states he won last time.

He won 304-227 votes. He looks certain to lose Michigan which is 16 votes. 7% Biden lead. So that would make it Trump:288-Biden:243. The hit the motor industry had with steel costs rising through his trade wars were felt in this region. His promises of motor industry prosperity haven't materialised even before the pandemic, not in the levels he promised.

Next swing state to look at is Pennsylvania at 6.7% lead for Biden. That's 20 votes and seems certain to flip. So that makes it Trump:266-Biden:263. It was rural Pennsylvania which swung it particularly with poorer turn out in the Philli region. My mates from this area feel certain it won't happen.

Next is Wisconsin at 6%, he screwed Harley Davidson up and the Milwaukee region is propped up by that business, it's a total institution for the locals with local supply chains involved. But he screwed them over. His failed promises, his bitter twisted behaviour at anyone who opposes him have cost him this state. 6% is almost certainly not retrievable. The 10 seats flip the presidency Trump:256-Biden:273.

The only question remaining is will it be a rout? Florida and North Carolina could very much flip and see 44 more votes flip. Trump:212-Biden:317 beyond Trumps win. Iowa, Arizona, Ohio are all at risk but a lot tighter but if all flipped it would be an utter humiliation for Trump with 35 votes at risk, it would be Trump:177-Biden:353. That would be nearly as bad as John McCain vs Obama
 
It looks like Biden could win Iowa! That's landslide territory.

The polls really weren't that wrong last time they were like 2% out, the gap just narrowed massively towards the end because trump was relatively unknown, anti-establisment, semi-racist but not racist enough to lose traditional republican votes and Hilary Clinton was utterly terrible.
The debates were funny last time and Trump even had a couple of zingers.
This time despite Biden being an awful candidate, everyone knows trump and know he's a racist lunatic.
People don't even expect their lives to get better under Biden they just want the d*ckhead off their TV screens which is totally crazy but understandable.
 
What a signal the USA could send to the world. In one term Biden could reaffirm moral authority over the despots of the world. The US is not a perfect society by a long chalk, it's capitalism is too extreme, but it should never have plunged into the depths with Putin,Modi ,Bolasara and the rest of the tinpot fascist or the world.
 
I don't think anyone thinks Biden is going to bring in sweeping social reforms, for example some of Trump's attack ads are portraying Biden/Harris as socialists and that they are stealing other politicians' policies the other politician in the ad is Boris Johnson, but the hope is that the US won't be so unpredictable & will again take a responsible leadership role on the world stage.
 
gravy173 said:
Does the us not have a shy voter swing like the shy Tory swing here where voters won’t admit they will vote for trump but do so anyway.
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Not really no, if anything most conservative voters are proud to be so, it's traditionally been the more socialist leaning voters that were quieter because it's been branded as 'un-american' to have any socialist leanings.
 
newusername said:
I don't think anyone thinks Biden is going to bring in sweeping social reforms, for example some of Trump's attack ads are portraying Biden/Harris as socialists and that they are stealing other politicians' policies the other politician in the ad is Boris Johnson, but the hope is that the US won't be so unpredictable & will again take a responsible leadership role on the world stage.
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Yeah he’s already told Wall Street donours “Nothing will fundamentally change”.
 
zaphod said:
The polls weren't really much wrong in 2016. Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by 2% to 3%, but the undemocratic system the US uses for Presidential elections made Trump President despite getting fewer votes. It's the second time this has happened this century. US is really only a semi-democracy.
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The same thing can happen in this country. We win constituency seats. You get 1 seat regardless of whether you win by 1 or 50,000 votes. People only moan about the voting system when it results in the candidate they voted for losing. It's childish
 
uberweiss said:
The same thing can happen in this country. We win constituency seats. You get 1 seat regardless of whether you win by 1 or 50,000 votes. People only moan about the voting system when it results in the candidate they voted for losing. It's childish
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Bollox. I have always complained about the electoral system, even when living in a solid Labour seat.
 
Colin Warnek said:
I think people are going to be very surprised once again by Trump. Can't see anything but a Trump win.
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I couldn't see Trump winning last time so it wouldn't surprise me if he wins again. It was interesting listening to a shift in opinion from evangelicals though (80% voted for him last time). Now there is a conservative supreme court, his job may be done.
 
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