The end?

Some of our greatest technological leaps as a species are created because of war . Think that has been a common theme throughout history. The forced progress is because you’re terrified the enemy is going to progress before you and overwhelm you as a result
 
Briefly, Tank Girl news. If all goes according to plan (and she survives of course) she is going to be a very significant figure in military history.
And
"Just talked with my adept who is having way to much fun in Verbove and truly hates to leave things half finished.
Verbove is now surrounded on the Northern, Western and Southern side with about 1km uncovered on the Eastern side.
75 percent of the village is now in Ukrainian hands, and she is currently just pouring heavy artillery fire into the remaining 25 percent to bump off the "infestation" there.

She promised to be done before the weekend, or hand over command to her battalion commanders.
She will though probably charge the poor village directly instead of handing over.

She did though make the observation that the quality of the Russians has gone down now on those that tries to counter-offence her, and that the last good troops in "her" sector was inside the village and that there was not many left.

Her opinion was that they would be arriving at Tokmak latest at the end of September, and that it would have fallen latest end of October.
She said that there are very few mines between the first and second trenchlines in the first Surovikin Line, and that they have spotted low numbers down to the Second Surovikin Line.

She also pointed out that the defences North of the T04-01 road will be easy to roll back since the troops North of it are now unsupplied, and that the same will be true as soon as they cut the T08-13 when they take Ocheretuvate."

From earlier
Verbove
I have attached an image showing where the 21st was 2 days ago.
They where slightly more to the south though, up against the second Yellow line.
The lightblue lines are the direction of the offensive that they are performing.

What has happened afterwards is that they push in below Verbove cutting Russian reinforcement possibilities from the South, and at the same time pushed onward to the East about a kilometre North of Verbove.
Fighting is now ongoing in Verbove, but it is not the 21st doing the assault operations there, they just provide heavy fire support to the Azov boys.

Verbove.png
 
A good video from Artur. Quite amusing. Strelkov has announced himself as a presidential candidate in some style. Artur admires his cojones. His map and info of Verbove are a little behind ... but still vg.

 
brief
"Frontline
In the region from Avdivka (the southern one near Donetsk City with one i) to Vuhledar there was a few reconnaisance in force attacks in the last 48 hours, near Avdivka one of the was successful and somewhat pushed the Russians backwards.
Ukraine has reallocated somewhat more shells in this direction and there is an increase in the number of fire missions.

Tokmak/Verbove/Ocheretuvate
Instead of going into Solodka Balka directly the Ukrainians are undercutting the line West of the village by pushing west and South.
It is slow going since there are a lot of Russian counter-attacks, but it moves forward.
The defence line infront of Solodka Balka has turned into a killing field for the Russians, but they still mercilessly throw in wave after wave of soldiers to hold at a rate of about 500 soldiers per day, the total inpour is still 1200 along the entire area on the Russian side.
We expect this to be possible to keep up for just a few more days for the Russians, then they have run out of available mobiks, unless more arrive from a different section of the frontline or freshlings from Russia.

Over at Verbove it is now a cleaning up operation, finding the last holdouts, and doing a bit of demining.
Then a couple of days later when that is finnished there will be the liberation flag video.
Baring of course any large Russian counter attack (not that likely to succeed).

The southern replacement Brigade is taking advantage of the low amount of mines and fairly Russian free open landscape and are pushing forward to Ocheretuvate thanks to the wide open door left by the 21st for them.
Obviously it is not easy going regardless of the video they released of them gliding along an endless dirt road among endless fields... but, they are definitely moving at a better clip now that they are at the location where Russia started to really get low on mines."
 
I wonder how Hollywood are going to spin this war… must be disappointing to them that there’s not much American involvement with grand flag waving gestures and ‘USA USAk moments…

im not meaning to be glib or making light of a serious situation… the whole sorry saga is fascinating (in a morbid way) to read and watch) I really do wish country leaders could realise that this planet is big enough for us all to live on in harmony… 😞
 
In brief

"There are reports coming in from the front line areas Around the Robotyne salient that the Russian main units have started to pull back from the contact zones.
So far they have pulled back about 5km from the salient uniformly.

Units in Novoprokopivka and Solodka Balka (pronounced Saldka Balka) are still fighting thoug to give other units time to withdraw. One day I should explain a bit Ukrainian pronounciation madness...
Either this is a planned withdrawal to better defencive positions, but I do not yet see those really, might though be that they are continuing to withdraw and we do not know that yet.

There is though a scary solution to the why.
Russia could plan to drop in a tactical nuke in the salient and then mop up in a counter offensive.
I do though not really think that is what they are up to since their army would seize to exist in a matter of hours, and yes they really know that.
We also have not seen any nuclear transport going in this direction, or any nukes taken out of storage.

My take is though that it became unsustainable in the end, and that it was easier to move the Russians to the stores, compared to moving the stores through the artillery fire to the Russians.
Either that or someone just decided that the Doctrinal way is better than the amateur way they have been doing things so far.

It may also be the beginning of a more largescale "Goodwill Gesture" at least back to the final line at Tokmak running Eastwards just South of Ocheretuvate.

Pronounciation
H is pronounced as a hard G, or K K is pronounced as H.
O can either be pronounced as an O or an A, and A is pronounced as an Open-A.
Oh, and it is important to skip vowels and shorten words at random places.
Solodka is Saldka as mentioned, Novoprokopivka is pronounced Novaprokivka...
Oh, and D and T can be used as you please since you can randomly pronounce either of them as the other depending on your mood, spirit, and just generally to b***r westerners..."
 
"One day I should explain a bit Ukrainian pronounciation madness..."

The pronunciation explanation given is (close to Russian)- not Ukrainian.

eg: MILK is MOLOKO in UKR and MALAKO is RUS

In Ukrainian O is always O - Solodka IS Solodka

hence Ukrainians ( podcasters etc) taking the **** when is O used by going A! A! A! A!
jus saying
 
News

"Frontline
My new favourite colonel (formerly my second favourite colonel) is now punching for all he is worth against Zavitne Bazhannya in the the direction of Staromlynivka.
He has been reinforced by a heavy mechanized brigade, and the target is to break through Staromlynivka and move towards Novopetrykivka (pronouned Novapetrayivka).
It helps having someone giving hints about how to pronounce this ****... :)
Anyhoo's. it might be a good idea to remember that place for later.

Tokmak/Ocheretuvate
If Ukraine previously was advancing by the meter, now things are moving on the order of tens of meters.
In the Western side of things Solodka Balka is now undercut from the western side, and in Novoprokopivka they are cleaning up now.
This means that Ukraine is now within basic tube artillery distance of Tokmak, and that advance forces are slowly creeping towards Tokmak infront of the artillery now that they have coverage.

Towards the East Ocheretuvate is now in point blank range for the Ukrainians and they are pouring in heavy artillery, mortar fire and tanks are firing direct fire with Abrams galumphing pestering fixed positions.

Zaluzhnyy was on his toes, and as soon as the Russians moved back he chucked everyone forward closing to within 5km of the Russians leaving the center without troops.
This is a sensible precaution in case the Russians thought it was a good idea to nuke the mid point of the salient.
It also took the pressure against the Russians up a notch or two...

Taking Ocheretuvate will though take time.
Think Robotyne time here, at least a couple of weeks, or up to a month.
The Russians know that if Ukraine can punch Tokmak both from the North and from East at the same time it will be just a question of time until it fall, so holding out in Ocheretuvate is more or less where they can stop things.

I do not believe in the nuke option.
Basically the Russians jumped back to hold the Second Surovikin Line.

Beyond
We are now seeing that Russia is moving out their last major capable Brigades from Luhansk and Donetsk to reinforce in Zhaporizhzhia, they are even moving out units designated to defend Mariupol.
We believe this last ditch attempt to reinforce will be in place in Ocheretuvate and Tokmak at the end of the week.

This means that if Ukraine breaks through at Ocheretuvate, or the ring defence of Tokmak, then the final good Russian Units are broken.

How committed is Russia?
All of the border are now on skeleton crews, where there were army groups or divisions there are companies.
Where there used to be Brigades or Regiments there are now platoons.
The entire Far East is now completely devoid of Air Defence, that has now been put on trains going for Moscow.
Murmansk is also devoid of Air Defence beyond what is bolted onto the ships, it is though unclear if these have shells and missiles any longer.

Murmansk and everything East of Baikal are stripped of all armour believed to be able to move.
The last train has left Nizhnyy Tagil (UralVagonZavodsk) with T-10 and T-54 tanks.
And to boot, there is a train with T-34s being loaded.
After that... nothing.
Or not, yes they can probably scrounge a couple of more months of museum pieces, but the good stuff is well and truly gone now.

On the other side a train groans in every hour loaded to the brim with stuff.
And 20 000 trucks are running shuttle traffic with other goods.

I have previously tried to explain the disparaty of logistics.
I think it can not be described better than this:
The Russians eat mice.
Ukrainians send via Über Eats from McDonalds directly to the frontline.
The same is true whatever you think about."

Yes, Russia had oodles of weapon systems to begin with.
But, they are truly running out, and we are definitely not about to run out of stuff.

I am sorry if I sound glib.
The price is real, and it is paid in blood for every meter of liberated land.
But, at least the boys and girls are well feed, well armed, and well taken care of.
And trust me when I say that every train, every truck, and every little piece is well received and appreciated.

Conclusion
I should truly one day write how Russia lost this war.
It would though be a long one, and I am not certain that I am either having the energy for it now, or really the mood for it.
Suffice it to say that it was close, and in the first 3 months Russia lost the war more than Ukraine won it.
The Ukrainian army now is something completely different than it was back then, truly never has so many had so few to thank for their freedom"
 
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