We tend to view our political leaders through a sort of vote-maximising lens, subject to at least some moral or ethical constraint. Bill Browder argues that this is inappropriate for Putin; He's a mafia don. He can't show any sign of weakness or he's finished. When in difficulties he reaches for the dictator's playbook - create or amplify an external enemy and go to war.
Warning: the linked article is excellent but I'm afraid it appears in the Mail
I hope that he never starts a new career as a crossword compiler!errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.
"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
So, between 24th and 28th February, the Russians are going to get battered in Transnistria? Or am I decrypting this completely wrong?errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.
"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
errm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.
"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
I assume the Russians will already know this and he has not let the cat out the bagerrm, this just in. He has gone all cryptic.
"As we all know dates are high in sugar contant, and contains high doses of vitamins and 152mm minerals.
It is therefore important to know that the best dates for harvest are between the 24th and the 28th of February depending on the weather.
As we all know the tastiest dates comes from Chateau Transnistria.
Luckily there are elite Ukrainian datepickers waiting on the border to the Datefarm complete with heavy date-picking machinery. On the other side there are fewer but very eager Moldovan pickers with less equipment for date harvesting."
I assume the Russians will already know this and he has not let the cat out the bag
I've seen a few comments on twitter, saying that Ukraine look ready to strike transnistria.Could also just be another wild speculative leap that doesn’t come to fruition.
Time will tell.
I've seen a few comments on twitter, saying that Ukraine look ready to strike transnistria.
At least China sound like they are aiming for win - win agreements with lasting benefits. Be interesting to see if the hawks on all sides can get their heads around that type of approach to stop the loss of lives.So, China ...
"
While the Transnistrians are fleeing into Moldova infront of the attack, there are things moving on the negotiation side.
So, let us concentrate on the Chinese instead of the milling Trans shall we.
Chinas 12 step peace plan was actually not half bad as a starting point for negotiations.
Especially the first point clarifying that a states national borders must be respected and that the Helsinki Accord is sacrosanct.
Basically this can be shortened down to: "Sod off Baldric", with Russia being the Baldric.
There is not a word on Russia getting to keep anything, not even Crimea.
There are clauses on Russia in return getting lessened sanctions if they crawl back home, and China giving them security guarantees.
So, here is the real question, can China twist the arm of Russia hard enough to get them to agree?
And secondly, can China get EU/US/Ukraine to sign off on it?
Let me begin in reverse order.
Ukraine has been promised that China will share equal burden with EU/US on the civilian rebuilding part, favoured status, and security assurances. Carrot.
The US got the, if you stop a good peace treaty and make us look like idiots we will deliver drones and weapons to Russia. Stick.
The EU, much more cautious and direct. More of let us be the grownups in the room and do this, and negotiate further between us on other things after. "Be friends please".
So... Russia.
It is clear that Russia has accepted something along this line already.
And here there has been powerful sticks and carrots involved.
We can only speculate what that would be, but probably along these lines.
Sign or we will sanction or even take parts of Russia.
Sign and we will give you a Marshal Plan of our own.
Sign and we will help to rearm you.
Russia is done, and they know it. They also have no clue on how to get out of their mess.
So, China stepping in getting them a survivable peace... it is about as good as it gets for Russia.
This also explains why Russia has been behaving so meekly since New Years.
Beside the non-ability to escalate further, they also do not want to get in the way of the Chinese.
They also want to avoid a humiliating upcoming defeat on the battlefield.
For China this would be groundbreaking.
It would set them up as an equal to the EU and the US in the world pecking order.
In Chinese eyes they would end up slightly behind the EU and slightly infront of the US.
Chinese do count these things differently than the US.
Not so much on military hardware, and more on softpower and trade.
China does not care about running half the show, they are happy at least for now with a third of the show.
And Russia served them the perfect opportunity to reach this goal due to bungling their war, and China has been going for this goal for more than 70 years now.
If China can pull this one off, it is a diplomatic coup."
Absolutely no chance whatsoever is Russia willingly agreeing to a peace treaty where they withdraw from everywhere they're occupying in return for sanctions being lifted.
They'll have to be removed like a tick.
So, China ...
"
While the Transnistrians are fleeing into Moldova infront of the attack, there are things moving on the negotiation side.
So, let us concentrate on the Chinese instead of the milling Trans shall we.
Chinas 12 step peace plan was actually not half bad as a starting point for negotiations.
Especially the first point clarifying that a states national borders must be respected and that the Helsinki Accord is sacrosanct.
Basically this can be shortened down to: "Sod off Baldric", with Russia being the Baldric.
There is not a word on Russia getting to keep anything, not even Crimea.
There are clauses on Russia in return getting lessened sanctions if they crawl back home, and China giving them security guarantees.
So, here is the real question, can China twist the arm of Russia hard enough to get them to agree?
And secondly, can China get EU/US/Ukraine to sign off on it?
Let me begin in reverse order.
Ukraine has been promised that China will share equal burden with EU/US on the civilian rebuilding part, favoured status, and security assurances. Carrot.
The US got the, if you stop a good peace treaty and make us look like idiots we will deliver drones and weapons to Russia. Stick.
The EU, much more cautious and direct. More of let us be the grownups in the room and do this, and negotiate further between us on other things after. "Be friends please".
So... Russia.
It is clear that Russia has accepted something along this line already.
And here there has been powerful sticks and carrots involved.
We can only speculate what that would be, but probably along these lines.
Sign or we will sanction or even take parts of Russia.
Sign and we will give you a Marshal Plan of our own.
Sign and we will help to rearm you.
Russia is done, and they know it. They also have no clue on how to get out of their mess.
So, China stepping in getting them a survivable peace... it is about as good as it gets for Russia.
This also explains why Russia has been behaving so meekly since New Years.
Beside the non-ability to escalate further, they also do not want to get in the way of the Chinese.
They also want to avoid a humiliating upcoming defeat on the battlefield.
For China this would be groundbreaking.
It would set them up as an equal to the EU and the US in the world pecking order.
In Chinese eyes they would end up slightly behind the EU and slightly infront of the US.
Chinese do count these things differently than the US.
Not so much on military hardware, and more on softpower and trade.
China does not care about running half the show, they are happy at least for now with a third of the show.
And Russia served them the perfect opportunity to reach this goal due to bungling their war, and China has been going for this goal for more than 70 years now.
If China can pull this one off, it is a diplomatic coup."
Where does The Hague sit on the Chinese checklist, I wonder. A pardon for Baldric perhaps?
Yes, I agree. As unpalatable as it may seem - not least to Ukraine- that will surely be the case.I suspect that some sort of protection from prosecution would be key to the current regime accepting any deal, as it's their lives on the line.