Chris_Boro
Well-known member
As things stand now, we’re heading for a hung parliament
It will go lower
Literally all the evidence points to the opposite.
Your big bounce man (what happened there?) might not even be PM before an Election is called.
YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!
- Thread starter Chris_Boro
- Start date
Literally all the evidence points to the opposite.
Your big bounce man (what happened there?) might not even be PM before an Election is called.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
The information I saw after the council elections was the big winner was Green. (The party I now vote). And most experts said the votes suggest a hung parliament
I’ve always said Labour won’t win a majority
I also said Sunak needed to cut the polls by around 1 point per month (Labour had a 30 point lead in October) and are now averaging a 15 point lead.
Chris, You posted Labour would win over 500 seats only a few months ago. I won’t be taking any notice of what you have to say
Most experts said nothing of the sort. The UNS polling used during the local election results is an awful indicator for national elections (this is universally accepted amongst pollsters). The Greens and Lib Dems will not match those results in a national poll, then there's Independents on top.
The most important part of the local election results was the collapse of Brexit vote, voting Tory and this went largely back to Labour. The majority of the pollsters weigh the Brexit vote pro Tory, and I've said this numerous times, it could be scewing the polls.
I've also stated that the initial leads from the polls were unsustainable (they were a reaction to Truss), but would average out between 10-15% before climbing again in the election cycle post manifesto release. Since then we've had the collapse of the SNP, that's 15-20 more seats Labour never expected, even with enormous poll leads.
I've never said anything of the sort. I've provided analysis and insights of polls as they came out, if you want to conflate the two, go ahead it's all in this thread, unlike the posts you've deleted.
My prediction is pretty much a reversal of the Tory majority to Labour.
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Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Just to point this one out, Sunak has done precisely nothing to the Tory vote share since becoming PM, Labour have fallen back to around 42-45% and it's been this way for months, hence why I stopped posting the polls.
So again, you're opinion is based wholly on bias and not actual data.
FabioPorkpie
Well-known member
A 15 point lead based on nothing more than people being disgusted by the Tories.
My hope is that Labour start to sell their vision soon, to consolidate and increase their lead. But let’s face it, they’ve got 12 months in which to do that and timing is probably almost as important as content.
I hope they show their hand to be that of a progressive, caring, fairer, clever ideas Government.
I still don’t know what current Labour stand for and I hope they pull something out of the bag to win back some of the disillusioned and the concerned (like me) who want to be voting for them because of what they stand for and what they will do, rather than just as a means to get the Tories out.
Won’t hold my breath….though I absolutely will hold my nose to vote for them under Starmer (or whoever gives best chance of ousting Tories in my area)
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I hope there are millions upon millions like me who are not particularly pro Labour or pro Starmer but see the main objective as getting and keeping the Tories out of power.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Me saying the poll leads won't last is in this thread, I'm not going to search for you. You challenged me with nothing but your own bias and claims polls don't actually mean anything.
Your problem is you believe your opinion is fact, it isn't and numerous times in this thread, has been disproved.
There were more than 8000 councillors elected over 240, largely Tory, Councils and you want to use the minority of instances that Labour didn't win as proof of your opinion? Yes, let's just casually ignore all the landslides then eh?
The Greens and Lib Dems will not replicate their local results in a national poll (you're also ignoring significant tactical voting), it just will not happen and you'll find no expert that will agree with you, it's just fantasy. Independents and local issues also scew the percentages. You're also conveniently ignoring that London, Scotland and Wales were not part of the May elections as well as the SNP collapse.
If you're going to hypocritically use sub polls as evidence of your opinion then you'll have to acknowledge that by far the best indicator of an election result historically, is the opinion poll itself.
All I've done in this thread is challenge you with data, you are the one that's not accepting current polling, therefore the onus is on you to disprove it with more than just your own bias.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
There are and will probably be many more come the next election.
While the Tories have, with their ID for voting scam, have disenfranchised up to 2 million voters. The Electoral Commission have always maintained that they have never had any problems with in person voting. But they do have “concerns” that postal voting is open to abuse. If results are that tight and PV is on the increase. Well who knows what could happen.
Paranoid moi !! f kn right, I am
Paranoid moi !! f kn right, I am
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
If polls are not to be believed, then what about bookies?
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
While I'm far from convinced Labour will win a majority - Shy Tories, boundary changes, soft Labour 'vote' , pollsters being wrong before (usually underestimating Tory vote/overestimating Labour) , possibility of Brexit standing aside if Tory candidate is hard right....
THERE IS THIS
www.theguardian.com
THERE IS THIS
Labour on course for landslide election victory, megapoll suggests
Starmer’s party is 12% ahead of Sunak’s Tories, survey based on new constituency boundaries suggests
www.theguardian.com
Laughing
Well-known member
Best for britain have produced a very comprehensive poll using MRP. It gives Labour a healthy majority unless all the don't knows vote tory and reform uk stand down their candidates in tory marginals.
www.bestforbritain.org
MRP Polling: New Boundaries June 2023
The first major seat-level MRP poll under new constituency boundaries suggests Labour are set for a 140+ seat majority with 470 seats.
www.bestforbritain.org
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
I wish the poster before had mentioned thisBest for britain have produced a very comprehensive poll using MRP. It gives Labour a healthy majority unless all the don't knows vote tory and reform uk stand down their candidates in tory marginals.
MRP Polling: New Boundaries June 2023
The first major seat-level MRP poll under new constituency boundaries suggests Labour are set for a 140+ seat majority with 470 seats.
- only joking 
Laughing
Well-known member
Silly me, don't I feel sheepish!I wish the poster before had mentioned this
Laughing
Well-known member
Not sure that adds anything to the debate. You could discuss the merits of the methodology used. That may add something.Best for Britain is an anti brexit lobby group set up in 2017 by Gina Miller and others. (No idea what they stand for now)
They haven't produced a poll, they've commissioned one and it could be right or it might not
Miller
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
viv_andersons_nana
Well-known member
Rachel Reeves ditched her flagship £28bn ‘green investment plan’ this morning. Entirely coincidental that this was slipped out on a Friday morning, of course. It will most definitely not be completely forgotten about by Monday lunchtime. Definitely not. You can trust Labour. 100%. It’s probably another clever move, actually. A sophisticated chess move. Look closely and you’ll see what they’re really doing. They’re doing the opposite of what they’re actually doing and, actually, it’s absolutely f*cking brilliant.
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
Slipped it out? It's all over the news or do you just read what suits you?
newusername
Well-known member
I don't understand how anyone can look at this shower, the state of the country, how far we've fallen since 2010 and think "you know what's going to sort it, 1 more term of the Tory party."