YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

[Lefty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781349661556490358

 

[Lefty]

New Seat Details - Somerset North East and Hanham

 

[TeessideCleveland]

It appear LibDem aupporters have the chance to tactically vote to keep Houchen in or vote him out

Tees Valley Mayoral Election Voting Intention (17-19 April 2024)

In 2017, Ben Houchen won an upset victory for the Conservatives in the Tees Valley Mayoral Election, becoming the first directly elected Mayor of the Tees Valley Combined Authority.

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com

 

[TeessideCleveland]

Opinium still a 16 per cent Labour lead

Tory still has more over 65s intending to vote for them - though some switching to reform

Labour shifts poll tactics to target fearful Tory over-65s

Alarm grows over possible pension cuts as research suggests Jeremy Hunt tax cut announcement was ‘blunder’

www.theguardian.com

 

[TeessideCleveland]

Labour are ahead in the polls, but have they won hearts and minds? These charts suggest not

There are signs the party’s polling lead is a bit soft. But with the Tories trailing in leadership and economy, experts are not sure it will matter

www.theguardian.com

 

[LessoftheLip]

Labour are ahead in the polls, but have they won hearts and minds? These charts suggest not

There are signs the party’s polling lead is a bit soft. But with the Tories trailing in leadership and economy, experts are not sure it will matter

www.theguardian.com

The Guardian's daily critical article. Whenever has a Government won 'hearts and minds'?

 

[TeessideCleveland]

The Guardian's daily critical article. Whenever has a Government won 'hearts and minds'?

They article says it won't matter if the Tories stay so unpopular - just a warning to avoid complacency I guess

 

[LessoftheLip]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782439220503835008

 

[Laughing]

Labours poll lead is anything but soft.

They are ahead of the tories on weever important metric. It's the exact opposite of a soft lead.

 

[LessoftheLip]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783473832470131124

 

[TeaCider]

Might be nothing, but hearing rumours that the election may be called on Monday.

 

[MolteniArcore]

Might be nothing, but hearing rumours that the election may be called on Monday.

I do hope so. Sadly I can’t see it happening. Maybe Roland thinks Rwanda will boost their chances in the polls. I think not. If anything after the Rail announcement by Labour I think the gap will widen.

 

[TeessideCleveland]

Wouldn't think it would be called just before the local elections

 

[ThePrisoner]

Wouldn't think it would be called just before the local elections

People often use local elections as a protest vote. Maybe by calling the general election Sunak thinks he can get tories to stay loyal by conflating the two elections.
Plus, now that the Safety of Rwanda act is law he can make the case that voters must return him to power to see the boats stopped, and so attempt to win back those who have defected to Reform. before the policy is shown to fail in summer/autumn.

 

[delgrapos]

People often use local elections as a protest vote. Maybe by calling the general election Sunak thinks he can get tories to stay loyal by conflating the two elections.
Plus, now that the Safety of Rwanda act is law he can make the case that voters must return him to power to see the boats stopped, and so attempt to win back those who have defected to Reform. before the policy is shown to fail in summer/autumn.

Interesting viewpoint

 

[Soutra]

People often use local elections as a protest vote. Maybe by calling the general election Sunak thinks he can get tories to stay loyal by conflating the two elections.
Plus, now that the Safety of Rwanda act is law he can make the case that voters must return him to power to see the boats stopped, and so attempt to win back those who have defected to Reform. before the policy is shown to fail in summer/autumn.

That's unlikely in the extreme. There are plenty of reasons the Tories are losing support to Reform, and other parties. One is the boats issue. The support that drifted away wasn't convinced the Rwanda idea was feasible (amongst other things). The Tories have no hope of winning those people back until they can show the Rwanda thing is deterring asylum seekers.

So, even assuming that some asylum seekers are deported in the summer - which may not happen - it'll take months to convince people that's it's working, and it's a deterrent.

So the election is more likely later than sooner. 2025 is my bet.

 

[TeaCider]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783611139814785532

No relation to where I heard it from, so it's clearly doing the rounds.