What final position would you take now?

3rd or 4th should be the target now to get that easier play off draw but realistically I'd be happy with just getting in the play-offs.

Catching Sheff United is highly unlikely but stranger things have happened. If they lost a game before we meet with them and then we beat them they would start to feel the pressure. That gap could be down to 6 points.
 
I'd agree with the Playoffs being a fantastic result considering our start.

However I don't think it would take 2 or 3 windows worth of surgery on the squad tbh. I believe contrary to what "Wilder said" we already have an excellent side capable of achieving promotion playing Carrick's way especially IMHO with the 2 lads brought in this window, it's just unfortunate that we played with the Wilder Handicap this year in terms of points accrued.

The hardest parts for me regarding "surgery" needed on the squad over the next season should we not go up this one would be retaining our stand out performers (Akpom, Hackney, Lenihan, Forss) in the face of massively tempting offers, turning a decent amount of our loans into perms (Giles, Archer from what I've seen so far) or getting like for likes in for them if this isn't possible.
Maybe 3 might be stretching it, but for me there's quite a lot of work to do for the reasons you've given.

We need to retain our best players, this becomes more difficult the better we play and more success we have (see Tav last year).

We're also pretty reliant on loans too. Fine if that's the model but it does mean that each summer you're either a) looking to sign those players permanently (expensive), b) extending loans or c) finding more loans signings who will fit and won't detract from the overall quality of the team.

Finally, the squad is currently imbalanced in my view and we need more depth. Our medical setup has improved (evidenced in fewer injuries) but they will still happen and we're short on options in key areas of the field - central mid and the three behind the striker for starters.

Even just looking at the loans for next season, think City are unlikely to sell Steffen and Archer and Giles are probably 12-15mil combined.

I don't think a three year planning cycle for automatic is unrealistic (calling this season year 1).
 
Home leg. I think we're as good if not better than anyone outside the top 2. Only issue that would make me revise that is an injury to someone like Akpom or Giles.
 
The question was “what final position would you take now” so the answer must be 3rd as it is likely to be the best position Boro can achieve if we play the whole season out.
Hoping we finish top or second is a long shot as not only are we relying on Boro to keep up our present form, we are also relying on one of the top 2 teams to hit a bad spell. Thus I think that taking “as a given “ virtually the best place Boro can finish is sense.
 
Maybe 3 might be stretching it, but for me there's quite a lot of work to do for the reasons you've given.

We need to retain our best players, this becomes more difficult the better we play and more success we have (see Tav last year).

We're also pretty reliant on loans too. Fine if that's the model but it does mean that each summer you're either a) looking to sign those players permanently (expensive), b) extending loans or c) finding more loans signings who will fit and won't detract from the overall quality of the team.

Finally, the squad is currently imbalanced in my view and we need more depth. Our medical setup has improved (evidenced in fewer injuries) but they will still happen and we're short on options in key areas of the field - central mid and the three behind the striker for starters.

Even just looking at the loans for next season, think City are unlikely to sell Steffen and Archer and Giles are probably 12-15mil combined.

I don't think a three year planning cycle for automatic is unrealistic (calling this season year 1).
Expanding on the points I've made certainly indicates that, but this year we'd have been in with a good shout to justifiably target the autos had the season began when Carrick took over or had he been here from the outset.

Other than the sides coming down with parachute payments (Watfords, Burnleys, Norwiches) that obviously have a head start, that's the way the majority of the other sides "make it", find a manager who just fits them with the squad they already have available, add just a few key additions and throw a smattering of luck into the mix. They then go up the season it happens or the next at the most. (Huddersfield, Brighton, Forest)

There are sides that "build" for more than 2 seasons such as Brentford (I wouldn't include Bielsa-led Leeds in that bracket as they had got minted, which put them into the same bracket as the parachute possee,) but in the majority of non-parachute promoted sides they tend to make it in one season or two seasons at most from the start of their transformation.

I'm always wary of compiling tables based on a subset of data as results can be skewed a tad, but giving Carrick the Preston game (where he was basically a spectator, making observations and plans based on what he saw, but couldn't have much in the way of input that affected the game as he didn't know the side) as his only pre-season and his only squad additions to make it his being Archer on loan and Barlaser who hasn't touched a ball yet, here's the table of the Championship from after his "Pre-Season" to show how success can be a lot more rapid than season after season of careful planning;

Team Played Points GD GF (Where tied)
Burnley/10. 28. +13
BORO/12. 28. +12 (24)
Sheff Utd/ 11. 28. +12 (20)
West Brom/11. 27. +12.
Sunderland/11. 20. +8
Coventry/13. 19. +3
Watford/12. 18. -1
Hull/12. 17. +6
Luton/10. 17. +4
Millwall/10. 16. +4
Preston/10. 15. -3
Norwich/10. 14. +3

Aside from the obvious "relative surprises" such as Norwich being sat all the way down in 12th, Hull in 8th and Blackburn failing to get a mention in the top half at all, some other things are clear.

Whilst two thirds of the sides have a game or two in hand on us, the autos (and title even) look like they're essentially squaring up to be a four horse race, packed tight as sardines whilst the rabble up the road head up a more spread out set of teams some distance behind.

Had Carrick's arrival (and performance thus far being equal) been at the start of the season then even if he hadn't had the summer transfer window the data points to his effect being astronomical in terms of the "manager fitting a club" with us perceivably battling for the title despite bringing in only 1 player of his own for the last few weeks that has had time to play any minutes whatsoever.
 
I can see Sheff Utd losing 5 games before the end of the season but I think we lose a few as well so I don't expect us to catch them. I hope/expect us to get in the playoffs from our recent improvement but the way we largely rolled over to Burnely and Sunderland was more disappointing than the actual result so I hope in the remaining few weeks we learn to get a real edge in big matches because however improved we are now it won't matter in the big tense matches of the playoffs if we can't withstand quality teams fighting for a result.
 
I'd snap your hand off for 6th right now.

Sheff Utd are too experienced, with a couple of recent promotions as a group, and even as a fanbase, to lose their $hit and blow a TWELVE point gap, with a game in hand, in just 17 games.

This is a team with the best away record in the division, you don't grind out wins away if you are the soft touch type. They are not going to lose more than half their remaining games after only losing 5 all season, Berge or no Berge
 
Anywhere in the top 6 for me. We can beat anyone on our day but we lack consistency, so the playoffs would suit us. Never guaranteed to go up in the playoffs. But if we get in there and get the £££ in from a game at Wembley, it puts us in a good place for next season regardless of which division we're in.
 
I'm going to change my prediction, I had a look at Sheff Utd fixtures, their big matches come thick and fast in February and March, with the rearranged fixtures and replays and hopefully a 5th Rd midweek date at least testing the stamina and in deph quality of their small core of midfield players depending who they get in for Sander Berge, if they are going to start to lose matches it will need to happen soon. Their remaining fixtures from April look winnable apart from the Burnely one, If we can become even more consistent and turn likely defeats into draws at least then we might catch them, but at the very least rachet the pressure up on them.
 
I'm going to change my prediction, I had a look at Sheff Utd fixtures, their big matches come thick and fast in February and March, with the rearranged fixtures and replays and hopefully a 5th Rd midweek date at least testing the stamina and in deph quality of their small core of midfield players depending who they get in for Sander Berge, if they are going to start to lose matches it will need to happen soon. Their remaining fixtures from April look winnable apart from the Burnely one, If we can become even more consistent and turn likely defeats into draws at least then we might catch them, but at the very least rachet the pressure up on them.
They won’t get anyone in for Berge as they’re embargoed.

If he leaves we have a shot as so much of their play goes through them and adjusting to losing him should damage their form.

The question is are we the real deal? I personally don’t think we are.
 
Sheff will lose this Saturday. Rotherham beat them at their place earlier this season if memory serves.
 
Sheff will lose this Saturday. Rotherham beat them at their place earlier this season if memory serves.
their away record says otherwise and they will remember why they lost and combat it, plus Rotherham's lost a pretty good player too lol
 
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