UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge

Randy said:
It seems more and more countries are coming around to the fact that a zero covid approach isn't a viable strategy. Mother nature always finds a way.
Although Australia are still adamant that a zero covid approach is the way to go.

How it started this year.
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How it currently is.
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Have to feel for the compromised situation in Oz — could lead to more unrest and more poverty. Is this the end game for the Oz government?
 
FabioPorkpie said:
This is incorrect.
Viruses *can* mutate to become more lethal.
That’s not to say they will, but it’s certainly not true to say they don’t.
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I wonder at what level it has to remain to cause the most damage to the world indirectly without burning out/ being ignored.

Similar transmission to currently, similar virulence but across the whole population of ages.

If it becomes more dangerous, the hope is that it burns out like the initial SARS outbreak much quicker, if less then everyone forgets about it I guess.
 
red_harrington said:
Flu varies year by year, and each new variant gets a new vaccine

I won't be surprised if the same happens with Covid

In other words, we will deal with it
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It hasn't happened in over a year and a half yet and you really, really can't draw parallels between flu and Covid, in terms of mutagenicity.

Flu isn't a single virus, it's a family of viruses and there are already dozens of different strains that each require different vaccines. This is because the flu viruses are subject to both antigenic drift and antigenic shift. Antigenic drift is what necessitates different vacccines for each strain every single year and antigenic shift is what creates new strains on a regular basis.

In fact the flu viruses mutate so quickly that often a vaccine is already pretty much ineffective by the end of the same flu season it was designed for (i.e within 6 months or so).

On the other hand, unlike the flu viruses and as stated in the article linked to below:

Coronaviruses are not prone to undergo antigenic drift or shift.
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The natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2

So because of this, SARS-COV-2 is still (despite variants) a single virus and because of the completely different way it mutates, looks likely to remain so.

That doesn't mean it won't eventually mutate enough to require new versions of the current vaccines at some point (as for instance, this group of scientists believes) but there's no reason it should mutate so as to require new vaccines every year (or actually every six months) as the flu viruses do because of the basic differences in its mutagenicity outlined above.
 
Liamo said:
It hasn't happened in over a year and a half yet and you really, really can't draw parallels between flu and Covid, in terms of mutagenicity.

Flu isn't a single virus, it's a family of viruses and there are already dozens of different strains that each require different vaccines. This is because the flu viruses are subject to both antigenic drift and antigenic shift. Antigenic drift is what necessitates different vacccines for each strain every single year and antigenic shift is what creates new strains on a regular basis.

In fact the flu viruses mutate so quickly that often a vaccine is already pretty much ineffective by the end of the same flu season it was designed for (i.e within 6 months or so).

On the other hand, unlike the flu viruses and as stated in the article linked to below:



The natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2

So because of this, SARS-COV-2 is still (despite variants) a single virus and because of the completely different way it mutates, looks likely to remain so.

That doesn't mean it won't eventually mutate enough to require new versions of the current vaccines at some point (as for instance, this group of scientists believes) but there's no reason it should mutate so as to require new vaccines every year (or actually every six months) as the flu viruses do because of the basic differences in its mutagenicity outlined above.
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With that in mind do you think booster vaccines would be of any benefit or should the original antibody load be enough?

I know they are gearing up for booster vaccinations and flu vaccinations this winter. I'm being lazy asking as I havent looked at any research as to benefits of boosters.
 
Cambsred said:
With that in mind do you think booster vaccines would be of any benefit or should the original antibody load be enough?

I know they are gearing up for booster vaccinations and flu vaccinations this winter. I'm being lazy asking as I havent looked at any research as to benefits of boosters.
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There is now talk over here regarding a booster (we aren't anywhere near us all getting the first one yet), which is why I think they have bought the Johnson & Johnson one.

On flu vaccines, we get one here but it generally covers the Singapore, Chinese, Hong Kong variants. Chances are in the Northern hemisphere you would have a vaccine for flu that covers more pertinent strains so not all vaccines are the same.
 
Zero covid is the way to go until you get a high vaccine uptake. Then you can loosen things.

in this country we have reached pandemic fatigue. Many are just sick of it and can’t be arsed others now believe it’s a hoax and have been sucked down the rabbit hole.

This story about an evasive strain is common sense but someone in the press picks up on it and it becomes a sensational headline that gets hits and generates revenue.
 
Cambsred said:
With that in mind do you think booster vaccines would be of any benefit or should the original antibody load be enough?

I know they are gearing up for booster vaccinations and flu vaccinations this winter. I'm being lazy asking as I havent looked at any research as to benefits of boosters.
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It's a controversial topic and from what I've read, the data is somewhat ambiguous.

Controversial, because there's a question over the moral acceptability of giving third doses to people in rich Western countries when many in poorer countries have not even received a first dose yet.

Ambiguous, because although some studies show antibody levels dropping off (especially in the elderly) antibodies are not the only measure of immunity.

B cells and T cells are also an important factor but as the article below points out, "correlates of protection are not yet established" for these various different components of the immune system.

Physicians Eyeing Third Dose of COVID Vaccine
 
Liamo said:
It's a controversial topic and from what I've read, the data is somewhat ambiguous.

Controversial, because there's a question over the moral acceptability of giving third doses to people in rich Western countries when many in poorer countries have not even received a first dose yet.

Ambiguous, because although some studies show antibody levels dropping off (especially in the elderly) antibodies are not the only measure of immunity.

B cells and T cells are also an important factor but as the article below points out, "correlates of protection are not yet established" for these various different components of the immune system.

Physicians Eyeing Third Dose of COVID Vaccine
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Really useful.

The 85% effectiveness of pfizer suggests minimal waning which is really good to know.

The suggestion seems to be boosters for those most vulnerable, although it is very much uncertain. I can see why they are preparing for it now.

The WHO have been quite clear that we need to level up the rest of the world if we are going to move forward. I fear we are far too insular as nations to do that, and it doesn't win votes.
 
Cambsred said:
Really useful.

The 85% effectiveness of pfizer suggests minimal waning which is really good to know.

The suggestion seems to be boosters for those most vulnerable, although it is very much uncertain. I can see why they are preparing for it now.

The WHO have been quite clear that we need to level up the rest of the world if we are going to move forward. I fear we are far too insular as nations to do that, and it doesn't win votes.
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There were two reports about a month ago saying two jabs produced 10x the antibodies of a covid positive case and a booster jab increased that 10x again. There was significant waning after about 6 months after two jabs.
 
thewanderer said:
How is this even surprising? Obviously *eventually* a new variant will bypass current vaccines...it's not just going to pop out out of magic though. This is just more sensationalism by the media.
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FlapJacks said:
I guess a variant which evades the vaccine has an advantage over the previous ones, so is likely to prosper. Natural selection and all that.

On the plus side, it might be sufficiently different to be less dangerous or less transmissible.
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I heard an expert discuss this & they said the current batch of vaccines work by mimicking the corona virus spike proteins, the immune system develops a response to the spike protein which then protects you when you come into contact with the virus.

The spike proteins are key for the virus to infect other cells in the body & replicate itself.

Mutations to the spike protein could change the efficacy of a vaccine but for a virus mutation to completely by-pass the vaccines it would have to lose the spike protein which would mean it would lose/seriously impact its ability to infect other cells in the body.

It isn't like antibiotics in that the virus won't become resistant to the vaccine due to overuse.
 
On a related note, I was on Twitter this morning and saw that #leaveourkidsalone was trending. I clicked on it to find that the Anti-Vaxxers had started the tag but it had been taken over by kids basically telling them to fukk right off, that they would make their own decisions and that if they could they would take the vaccine yesterday.

The vast majority of the "Anti-Vaxxers" seem to come from a very particular demographic...
 
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