The National Covid enquiry starts today

I don’t think you know how death certificates work.

The doctor or coroner certifying a death can record more than one health condition or event on the form. The medical certificate of cause of death has two parts, Part 1 contains the sequence of health conditions or events leading directly to death, while Part 2 can contain other health conditions that contributed to the death but were not part of the direct sequence.

"The underlying cause of death is defined as the health condition or event that started the train of events leading to death and is worked out according to rules from the World Health Organisation (WHO). COVID-19 is the underlying cause of death in around 92% of deaths where it was mentioned on the death certificate."

from https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...wherecovid19wasmentionedonthedeathcertificate
 
They literally ignored the scientific advice for weeks before lockdown, directly causing thousands of deaths. They knowingly sent infected people back to care homes, causing more deaths. They did ridiculously stupid things like eat out to help out which kicked off another wave. They should be in prison for manslaughter.
Don't have the will to fight you over this, it still pains me, so I'm out.
 
"The underlying cause of death is defined as the health condition or event that started the train of events leading to death and is worked out according to rules from the World Health Organisation (WHO). COVID-19 is the underlying cause of death in around 92% of deaths where it was mentioned on the death certificate."

from https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/tran...wherecovid19wasmentionedonthedeathcertificate
There you go then Fat Dragon. 204,000 x 92% = 187,680. Nothing to be concerned about huh?
 
No, I’m just saying that not all of the 200,00+ deaths are solely down to covid. There would have been people who died of other illnesses but because they had a positive covid test within 28 days of their death, the government includes it as part of the covid figures. Many people will have died solely from covid but some won’t have. The exact figure I guess we will never know.

Most will have died from pneumonia or organ failure/heart attack however the underlying cause would have been covid. It doesn't matter if they were dying with any other illness or cancer first.

You are fundamentally misrepresenting what co-morbidity means.
 
It's appalling the inquiry will take an estimated min 2 years.It took govt 8 months to agree Baroness Hallett's terms of reference for the inquiry.
 
No, stop talking nonsense. It means covid was a cause of death. A doctor wouldn't put covid on the death certificate unless it was a cause of death. What is your motivation for minimising this?
Exactly, I always wonder what the motivation is for playing something like this down? :unsure:

I wonder where people get their info, but people should be more trusting of a doctor's death certificate, over random grifters on twitter with no medical background, or any statistical analysis knowledge.

Let's also not forget back in April 20 we had double the expected deaths we typically would, and loads of them never went down as covid as we had no tests, and the doctors had no idea what to look out for, for months.

140k excess deaths between Mar 20 and June 22, over the 2015-19 Average, but the actual real excess would be higher, as we're 6 months on from then, and we've been averaging about 1.5k excess per week since April still, so call that another 40k on top and you're already at 180k (which is 90% of the Covid death cert numbers).

Then factor that 2022 includes 2021 as a baseline (rather than 2015 to 2019), for some stupid reason (to make the numbers look better for the Tories).

Then factor that LESS people would typically die, due to the reduced activity due to lockdowns, less flu, less RTA's, less workplace injuries etc. As a basic example, you might have saved 5% from other risks and infections, so if you end up at 110% deaths, then in reality the excess should be 15%, rather than 10% etc. We might have saved 10% from dying of flu, but then killed 20% with covid etc.

The excess deaths probably marry up with the covid numbers very closely, but that's also not factoring the excess which is still to come from long covid and people who have had their health wrecked, never mind the mental health impact for the 2m or so who are family of these deceased, the 1m or so people working for the NHS, and whoever else knew them.

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There you go then Sherlock. 92% not 100%

Of course it’s something to be concerned about.
What about the 25% excess deaths which never went down as Covid in April/ May 20? When we had no tests, are you not concerned those never went down as covid?

Yes, a very small number will have had covid and died of something else, but equally and beyond this there were 10's of thousands at the start who never got attributed to covid.

The excess deaths is the key number, but you also need to understand how that is made up, and what it uses to reference "excess" against.

All excess should have been measured against 2015-2019, the only reason to include 21 was to dress the numbers up in the government's favour.

It's widely known that nearly every country has wildly underestimated its covid numbers, we're one of the few whose numbers are pretty accurate, as we pretty much have the best data in the world for tracking this sort of thing.
 
Guessing that will conveniently be after the next election
Of course it will, but it really shouldn't be like that, the data is there now to put out preliminary findings, certainly before the next election, and the public have a right to know it, before they vote.
 
Of course it will, but it really shouldn't be like that, the data is there now to put out preliminary findings, certainly before the next election, and the public have a right to know it, before they vote.
I think we should all know it was managed terribly which caused many thousands to die needlessly, but incredibly many still think the Covid response was good. I’m not sure it could have been much worse personally
 
I think we should all know it was managed terribly which caused many thousands to die needlessly, but incredibly many still think the Covid response was good. I’m not sure it could have been much worse personally
The two-week delay of lockdown at the start was a ludicrous decision, even if we did not trust china, we can trust Italy and Spain who were two weeks in advance. For that two weeks we had 3-day doubling or whatever it was. 14 days is pretty much 5 doublings, 10k cases ends up 320k. We could have had that to two doublings, and knocked the peak down by ~80-90%.

Also allowing the Christmas mixing/ shopping and other big mistakes. The actions were not so bad after the vaccine roll-out, but we really messed up the first year.

One of the most annoying things for me, was the allowance of the media to shoot down modelling, which was based on "doing nothing", when in reality we never "did nothing" so this number would never have been achieved, loads of people took their own precautions way above government guidance. We really could have hit those big numbers if we actually did nothing, like loads of fools were advocating.

Covid was also a big lesson in how we need to get a handle on social media disinformation, and grifters, it's caused a ridiculous amount of damage.
 
That's the point i'm trying to make, and that only.
Doesn't seem that way to me, not how you started out, it looked like you were trying to play the numbers down in one way without recognising they would be up in other ways.

Bit of a pointless point (if that was your point) when there will have been at least an equal number missed, more to come, and even more with long-term problems. Never mind the million admitted to hospital who "made it".

But, what you actually wrote:

That 204,000 figure just means that when someone passed away they had a positive covid test within 28 days of their passing. It doesn’t mean 204,000 people have died directly as a result of COVID.
I've described in posts above how it does mean 200k or more have died, more than expected to, it's visible in excess.

Exactly, that means they had covid at the time of death. It does not mean that covid was necessarily the sole reason they passed away even though for some it probably was.
We've probably got 200k excess deaths in real terms, that's more than "some", it's pretty much all of the Covid figure quoted. End of the day those 200k would be alive if they never got covid. Yes, there may be 10k from that covid number, but we can easily make that up from those that were missed. The number is the most important thing, not that John 1 didn't die of covid (like you insinuate), as John 2 took his place (like I explain).

The doctor or coroner certifying a death can record more than one health condition or event on the form. The medical certificate of cause of death has two parts, Part 1 contains the sequence of health conditions or events leading directly to death, while Part 2 can contain other health conditions that contributed to the death but were not part of the direct sequence.
All correct, but there were 200k excess, which was likely caused by Covid. We would have 200k more people alive if it wasn't for covid. The exact makeup of the 200k may be slightly different of the covid no, but there is no reason to doubt that Covid has brought 200k to an early death. For every death certificate which was wrongly attributed, there was another which wasn't attributed in any way, they effectively give the same end result.

No, I’m just saying that not all of the 200,00+ deaths are solely down to covid. There would have been people who died of other illnesses but because they had a positive covid test within 28 days of their death, the government includes it as part of the covid figures. Many people will have died solely from covid but some won’t have. The exact figure I guess we will never know.
There was no other simultaneous pandemic. We will never know the exact no, but we already know we have circa 200k excess (all killed early by covid, in some way). It will be harder to say how many more were killed by covid, not shown as excess. As in we might have missed 50k more covid (ie it could be 250k for example), and we haven't had 50k worth of RTA's, Work accidents, Heart attacks from over excursion etc. The risk of dying after 2 months of sunbathing would be less than being out active every day. The latter it will be harder to work out.

Contributing factors are just as important. If someone had a 10% chance of dying of a heart attack and covid ups that to 12%, then you might still die of a heart attack, but either way it's still 20% more people dead. Covid increases the risk of so many other things, which is the problem. I could get pushed into the sea, with 1% chance of death but if someone ties my hands and legs before being pushed then I'm certainly going to drown. Being tied won't be the cause of death but it made it happen, and wouldn't have happened otherwise.
someone shoots me in the arm or leg, then I'm going to drown, it won't be the gunshot which kills me, yet I would have survived without being shot.
 
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