The end?

Take your eye off this thread for a couple of days and there's War and Peace to read when you get back (pun intended). We're well in to page 101 and I've only just reached the tonne. Glad we're not going to be tested on all this, some of it is a bit whooosh on me!
 
Wars are often lost long before they end. Politicians and leaders have always shown a disregard for the lives and well being of soldiers and civilians.

The suffering of the innocent is the true price of war.
True indeed. I remember (a long time ago) my history A level, where the phrase ‘status quo ante bellum’ was frequently used.
Yes, just as it was, apart from all the dead.
 
Wars are often lost long before they end. Politicians and leaders have always shown a disregard for the lives and well being of soldiers and civilians.

The suffering of the innocent is the true price of war.

Exactly this.

Unfortunately the Russian leadership has been in some disarray and seems unconcerned by the levels of mortality and suffering that it is inflicting upon its own people, let alone the Ukrainians.
 
A point that has been made a few times. You will note that there was a question mark.

I do think that the dissent shown by the politicians who censured Putin was something of a watershed moment. At the time we didn't know that Putin was in decline personally or politically.
The situation, both on the battlefield and in Moscow, looks very different now from the way it looked in early September.
It has been a diary of The End of Eastern Europe as we've known it for the last 25 years.

I think we're either in for another year followed by total Russian collapse (we don't want them pushed to the brink really, and who knows what will occupy the power vacuum created by that), or a sudden Ukraine break through on newly dried out ground, followed by a Russian stampede to the negotiating table. I don't see a third outcome myself.
 
It has been a diary of The End of Eastern Europe as we've known it for the last 25 years.

I think we're either in for another year followed by total Russian collapse (we don't want them pushed to the brink really, and who knows what will occupy the power vacuum created by that), or a sudden Ukraine break through on newly dried out ground, followed by a Russian stampede to the negotiating table. I don't see a third outcome myself.
Yea, if the war stays as it is I can see this dragging on for the rest of the year atleast.
All depends on how quick everyone else wants it to end.
 
A short one

"
Russia has cancelled their offensives in Vuhledar and in Zhaporizhzhia due to having lost against the weather.
This is a new excuse.
Well, unless "weather" is an euphemism for crushing artillery rain and Ukrainian fire on the ground...
I guess we can call this a "goodwill gesture".

Massive reinforcements have arrived in Bakhmut to stabilize the frontline, even for Bakhmut the fighting has reached a level not before seen as major elements of Ukraine and Russia are now involved in the fighting for the first time in the war.
Initially it is said to look good for the Ukrainians with Girkin crying to high heavens.

Over in Kherson, Hola Prystan to be exact, an entire artillery brigade are firing from the Ukrainian side and a Force Recon Battalion have crossed the Dnipro. This is confirmed through pictures and geo-locationing.
It is early days, but this might be a serious attempt by Ukraine to take a bridgehead.
Satelite imagery indicated that more units are staged to follow up if it is succesful.
In general a single attack like this should not be able to take a bridgehead, normally you do at least 3 similar sized attacks at the same time in different areas.
But, boats and barges are in limited supply, so it might be that Ukraine is planning to do breakthrough attempts sequentially instead and just try to barge through at a weak spot.
Judging from the amount of Russian soldiers, and the amount of firepower, this is a serious enough attack to possibly be able to breakthrough as more units cross the river.
I will follow this attack very closely.
I am though surprised at the ferocity of the attack, and that Ukraine are using their best force recon battalion like this, it shows high intentions.

Oh my, I wrote a short one for once."
 
Not 100% sure I should post this, but ...

"The ongoing storming of Hola Prystan and the attack on Oleshky that just begun answers quite definitely the question of who is in control of the Islands in the Stream.
Without control it is just not possible to do amphibeous assaults and bridging operations across the Dnipro.

It also seems like the Russians have made a huge strategic error with tactical implications.
It seems like they have removed to much troops from Kherson into the attacks at Zhaporizhzhia and in Vuhledar.
The level of stupidity at comman level is incredible, after weeks of Ukrainian artillery missions and special operations attacks it is hilarious that they removed the soldiers.
Either the commander is a kretin, or he really wanted to loose as badly as possible.

The units involved says that this is seriously intended.
It is the Force Recon Brigade, 46th International Brigade & the Azov Brigade that is doing the assault together with naval units.
Behind them are two tank brigades, and they are supported by 4 artillery brigades now.
In other words, two divisions worth committed is telling of Ukraine doing at least a very strong effort into grabbing two good bridgeheads.

As I went through the maps once more I noticed that these are the only two places with good access to roads and that they would be good logistics hub for a push towards Crimea.

I honestly do not understand how Russia could leave the back door open to Crimea like this...
I know that Russians are bad at crossing rivers, and it seems like they just assumed that Ukraine could not do what they can't, even though Ukraine has proven that they are very good at bridging rivers.

Anyway, it is early days, and Ukraine are not talking about what is happening, I had to cheat to get the info.
Heck, they have not even declared that they had taken the islands.
I hope this works so that they do not have to try again later, even with few Russians holding the beaches this will have been costly to the extreme for Ukraine.
I positively hate amphibeous assaults."
 
Not 100% sure I should post this, but ...

"The ongoing storming of Hola Prystan and the attack on Oleshky that just begun answers quite definitely the question of who is in control of the Islands in the Stream.
Without control it is just not possible to do amphibeous assaults and bridging operations across the Dnipro.

It also seems like the Russians have made a huge strategic error with tactical implications.
It seems like they have removed to much troops from Kherson into the attacks at Zhaporizhzhia and in Vuhledar.
The level of stupidity at comman level is incredible, after weeks of Ukrainian artillery missions and special operations attacks it is hilarious that they removed the soldiers.
Either the commander is a kretin, or he really wanted to loose as badly as possible.

The units involved says that this is seriously intended.
It is the Force Recon Brigade, 46th International Brigade & the Azov Brigade that is doing the assault together with naval units.
Behind them are two tank brigades, and they are supported by 4 artillery brigades now.
In other words, two divisions worth committed is telling of Ukraine doing at least a very strong effort into grabbing two good bridgeheads.

As I went through the maps once more I noticed that these are the only two places with good access to roads and that they would be good logistics hub for a push towards Crimea.

I honestly do not understand how Russia could leave the back door open to Crimea like this...
I know that Russians are bad at crossing rivers, and it seems like they just assumed that Ukraine could not do what they can't, even though Ukraine has proven that they are very good at bridging rivers.

Anyway, it is early days, and Ukraine are not talking about what is happening, I had to cheat to get the info.
Heck, they have not even declared that they had taken the islands.
I hope this works so that they do not have to try again later, even with few Russians holding the beaches this will have been costly to the extreme for Ukraine.
I positively hate amphibeous assaults."
I followed this lad when he was fighting ISIS in Syria and he popped up again in the 131 Seperate Recon Brigade in Ukraine and this is what he had to say about South Kherson this week which ties in with the above
 
Putin will be loving the balloon shenanigans in America.

I wonder if we will see China’s support for Russia become more overt if the US China relationship continues to sour.
 
As much as I been fascinated but the content of this thread. I will be genuinely happy once it's gone.

The whole thing needs containing and to peter out ASAP
 
I think there is a real risk that western support will waiver if this war goes on long enough, which is what Putin is looking for.

We know the economic impact it is having and we could soon get to the point of countries compromising their own security if they continue to supply military equipment.

The Republican Party in America has a different view on American support and NATO member Turkey is reportedly supplying hardware to Russia, along with China.

It’s not to hard to see splits being fashioned.
 
I think there is a real risk that western support will waiver if this war goes on long enough, which is what Putin is looking for.

We know the economic impact it is having and we could soon get to the point of countries compromising their own security if they continue to supply military equipment.

The Republican Party in America has a different view on American support and NATO member Turkey is reportedly supplying hardware to Russia, along with China.

It’s not to hard to see splits being fashioned.
Being cynical, I don't think the western support will waiver......due to the carrot being dangled at the end of the war.

The rebuilding of Ukraine will be worth $$$$$ billions. Russia sliding into a kind of lawless gangster run state (where $$$ rules) will be very appealing to capitalist vultures swooping in to make their dirty money.

And then there are the monies being made from the arms companies - longer the war, more military hardware needed, profits shoot up. Like the old saying goes, economy struggling - start a war.

Sadly, once the war is finished, $$$$$ will be the driving force not the rebuilding of Ukraine for humanitarian/ social reasons. Neoliberalism runs rife. On steroids.

Just my cynical opinion which I hope turns out to be total bollox.
 
Being cynical, I don't think the western support will waiver......due to the carrot being dangled at the end of the war.

The rebuilding of Ukraine will be worth $$$$$ billions. Russia sliding into a kind of lawless gangster run state (where $$$ rules) will be very appealing to capitalist vultures swooping in to make their dirty money.

And then there are the monies being made from the arms companies - longer the war, more military hardware needed, profits shoot up. Like the old saying goes, economy struggling - start a war.

Sadly, once the war is finished, $$$$$ will be the driving force not the rebuilding of Ukraine for humanitarian/ social reasons. Neoliberalism runs rife. On steroids.

Just my cynical opinion which I hope turns out to be total bollox.
You could be right.
 
Just hearing from him, Russian sub detected outside Gothenburg.

Pinged by a Swedish sub with open torpedo tubes.

Russian sub with missile hatches open.

Patriot systems armed.

Innit great how this **** goes on without us having an inkling!
 
Just hearing from him, Russian sub detected outside Gothenburg.

Pinged by a Swedish sub with open torpedo tubes.

Russian sub with missile hatches open.

Patriot systems armed.

Innit great how this **** goes on without us having an inkling!
That's scary, from that position even a lower range missile that the Russian Subs carry could hit pretty much any capital in Europe.
What are the implications of the sub having its hatches open?
And which countries patriot systems have been activated? Or is it pretty much all have been put on high alert?
 
This would suggest it's a Swedish system which has been moved to the port area?

 
Bit of an update with an addendum

"It was an interesting day to say the least.
I had my monthly day at the "typewriter place".
A few things we discussed I can't discuss, but you do not need to be a genius to get that two of the topics was Turkey, and the other was the impending Russian offensive.

The topic was named "Sanctioning of Turkey", and it was quite schizophrenic to under that title discuss how to best aid Turkey.
Let us say that for now it is somewhat of an about turn as EU is scrambling to send help and aid.
Regardless of this, general consensus is that Turkey is out of the equation for the time being, and that all energy is better spent on helping the population.

So, let us move onwards to the more interesting topic of the Russian Spring Offensive.
I have been trying to say as much as I could about this, but obviously that was far from everything.
But, now I can say a fair bit more about it.

The general troop situation on the Russian side is as I have stated it, so bad if you are a Russian, but good if you are a Ukrainian.
Regardless, it will not be fun obviously for Ukraine.
Let me start with where Russia has injected troops.

Melitopol, about 20 000 new troops have arrived here.
It is believed that they are not there for any offensive purposes.
We believe that the attack in Zhaporizhzhia near the Nova Kakhovka dams northern end was just a feint to lock down Ukrainian troops.
Instead we have good reason to believe that these new troops are there to counter the upcoming Ukrainian Spring Offensive.

Mariupol has also received some 20 000 new troops.
These are believed to be there prior to a bigger offensive against Vuhledar.
Ukraine certainly thinks so, and they are prepared for them.
Urkaine does not want to be pushed away from the area, since Vuhledar will become important later on as it is the lynchpin defending the route towards Mariupol and towards encircling Donetsk in the future.
It is also important so that Ukraine can coninue to hurt transport routes along the land bridge to Crimea, and also so they can cut those roads and rail lines in a little while.
Russia is already on the offensive trying to push out the defenders from Vuhledar itself, but this is more staging than the big push.
But, already Russia is taking heavy losses there, both in manpower and equipment (11 tanks yesterday).
Ukraine has sent in the 72nd mechanised brigade to spearhead against the tanks, and they are among the top 4 armoured brigades.
Expect a large mechanized battle here in a few days.
I do not think Russia will get far, Ukraine is well prepared here, and Russia lacks the equipment needed to advance far.

Bakhmut is about to fall, at least partially according to the Ukrainians.
They are ready to fall back to a new defence line, so no big loss really.
The Russians are gonna try to push their advantage, but this will not be the site for a large offensive for now.

Soledar, Russia has reinforced here, and will try to push North to close the southern way to Kreminna, and also attack towards Kramatorsk. About 20 000 soldiers are enroute here or already there at the backlines.
Personally I think they will first strike towards the North since this would strengthen Kreminna.

Kreminna, here Russia is prepairing a large attack towards Lyman. Signs are that it has already slowly started.
Russia has already reinforced with 25 000 men here, and another 15 000 seems to be coming in.
Lyman hurt Russian pride, so this will for now be the main attack, and to succeed Russia must close the Southern gap from Soledar upwards.
Ukraine obviously have plans to stop this.
I think Russia might be able to close the gap to Kreminna, but they lack the manpower and equipment to take back Lyman.

Svatove, here the goal is first to push Ukraine out of Luhansk, support the push towards Lyman, and if things go well push back towards Kharkiv. To be able to this Russia has sent in 15 000 troops.
I think that here Russia will at worst get some limited advancements, but they lack manpower and equipment to go further.

Northern front, as of now we do not see any concentrations pointing towards any real attack. There are only 25 000 Russian soldiers along the entire line from Belarus border towards Poland all the way over to Kharkiv.
It is though likely that they will do probing attacks to try and draw away Ukrainian reinforcements from other sectors, but Ukraine will not need them, even if Russia would concentrate the forces unexpectedly.

It is weird, it must be the first time in history that a country is openly stating what they will try to do in advance of doing it.
Everything is pointing towards Russia really attempting to take all of Donbass.
Only problem is that they seem to conveniently have forgotten a couple of small things...

Rivers
Russia has proven themselves to be really bad at crossing rivers. This is a bit surprising really, we do not understand where all the river crossing equipment has gone that the Soviets used to have, and that we know that they used to practice a lot with.
Pretty much all attempts to cross rivers have ended up in a disaster in the last year, so how on Earth they are planning to all of a sudden master it during an offensive across river after river... against a superiorly armed and numbered enemy, is just beyond me.

Topography
Russia will be fighting uphill the entire way. I hope I do not need to point out how much more comfy it is to shoot down on your enemies compared to shoting upwards...
It is also hard to drive up hills and run up hills.

Equipment and logistics
Russia will if successful stretch their logistics quite a bit, and they would need an enormous amount of artillery shells that they seem to not have.
Russia also is severely lacking in both tanks and tank viagra.
And, they seem to not have brought forth any other large amount of armoured vehicles needed for a large scale offensive.

Numbers
400 000ish troops is a lot, but against an enemy that has the numerical advantage it is not good enough.
Yes, they will have the numerical advantage on the Eastern front to begin with, but Ukraine can as soon as they are sure about the offensive being real there send in reinforcements to slam the door shut.
Also, Ukraine have line after line to fall back into along the entire front.

Conclusion
Since Russia has not done another large scale mobilisation this is Mission Impossible for Russia.
They will not be able to grab Donbass, and after the offensive Russia will be totally spent.
Even at the current rate of losses the entire amount of fresh troops will be gone in 40-50 days, and I expect the losses to increase dramatically.
It will be an utter bloodbath due to the lack of heavy armour and artillery.

Even if Russia later on try to do a large scale mobilisation they will not be able to do it in time to affect the Ukrainian Spring Offensive, that will be done with troops that will not even be used in Donbass (a few might meander over to Vuhledar if needed).
Then there will be nothing left to reinforce against Ukraine.

For Ukraine they can loose a few dozens of square kilometres in Donbass against heaploads of dead and wounded Russians.
Donbass is big...
For Ukraine what is important is to go for the jugular, and that is Crimea.
Crimea is easy to cut off supplies to, and make it into a supersized version of Northern Kherson.
And the political punch would be ginormous inside of Russia.

Western Equipment
Do not trust all you see about late arrival dates etcetera for equipment to Ukraine.
This is in parts plain diversionary bull****.
Quite a bit of equipment is arriving far faster than flagged.
Tanks are arriving already, a poor Canadian tank is masquerading for a lot of other tanks ambling into Ukraine through various other routes.

Things are already arriving, and Ukraine will have loads as April comes around the corner.
A certain someone is already fondling the first batch of her stuff, and the rest will be there in good time for her to use.
GLSDBs? Well, a first batch will arrive quite a bit faster than expressed, etcetera.

A slight hickup happened though.
Russia did something incredibly dangerous and sent a couple of subs to a point between Gothenburg and Denmark.
One was a hunter/killer and the other a missile sub.
The missile sub forced us to send out and set up one of our Patriot AD systems at Gothenburg.
The missile sub commander then got it into his brain to open his missile hatches...
Thankfully we had a Gotland class sub hard on his tail, so it flooded the torpedo tubes noisily and started pinging the Russian with active sonar.
Russia got the picture right about as he was going to become fishfood and turned towards open sea and back to Murmansk.
The other sub will soon also be a problem moving towards Murmansk.
This put a corker in transports obviously, so the ship with 60 Bradley's had to beline to UK for a pitstop and wait while we and the Danes explain to the Russians that they will stop having toys to play with if they continue.
We have though been nice and explained that if any more funky stuff happens we will start sinking their toys in our own waters.
Our own waters being interpreted generously here.
Since it was said behind the scenes the Russians took it as a friendly but stern warning to be taken seriously.
They are though dismayed that we could track their subs in realtime.

Normal operations will soon resume."

Then this in brief late on

"Ukraine High Command just notified the world that Russia had performed shelling on Hola Prystan.
Ukraine only notifies if Russia shells Ukrainian held territory.
In other words, it is now finally official that Hola Prystan was indeed liberated by that attack.

Now it is an official race between Ukraine to expand the bridgehead and bring reinforcements, and Russia to send reinforcements to try to stop this unmitigated disaster in Russian planning.
I am now having a celebratory whiskey.

Now comes the rather intricate question, what the hell will this have for effect upon the Russian offensive?
Will they stubbornly plod onwards, or will they try to adapt to having a large Ukrainian army dildo reaming their back door?"
 
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