The end?

I nearly wrote a short while back whether it might be that Ukraine assist the creation of an armed force of captured Russians prepared to march on Moscow and remove Putin and the war mongering faction, as the only way to end the war without Ukraine in a state of constant alert against a humiliated Russian top brass rebuilding and recommencing hostilities. A Ukrainian force would risk nuclear war, but peace can never happen without a change at the top in Russia.

Then I dismissed it as I figured Ukraine just couldn’t take that risk of arming a group of Russians who could possibly turn back on them.

But it kind of is happening and might topple dominoes that do fall on Moscow.
 
Best hope they stick to their nuclear doctrine, from your description this is a complete collapse of Russia's entire military on home soil.

Is your man not at all worried that someone up the food chain with the ability to push the button just goes '**** em if they can't take a joke'?

I suppose it is always a risk but, apparently, the fella with the codes is actually quite sane and, because he talks to the Americans all the time, he would be under no illusions as to the consequences.

As for the offensive, even though our man not only suggested that this option may well happen a long time ago and, just this last week stated that it made a lot of sense militarily, he expected it to happen later. But, as he says in his last post, because he now knows what the plans are, chapter and verse, he can no longer speculate for us in the same way .... because it would not really be speculation and so, for opsec reasons, not for publication. We should though still get his observations on events "as they happen" or a lot closer to real time than you will get in many other places.

Note the BBC's reporting yesterday, basically reciting the Russian narrative, from the Russian news agencies, that a small bunch of saboteurs had crossed the border.

Overnight the FSB headquarters in Belgorod had "an existential crisis".
 
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Short morning update.

"As the regular units are leaving Russian territory the Grayvoron district is still firmly in Russian Liberty hands as the Liberty Russians are holding against the Murdering Army Russians.
Things have taken a darker turn as the FSB troops started to use GRADs on the towns in Grayvoron.
Yeah, you read that correctly, Russian forces are now openly bombarding their own people for all that they are worth.
The Liberty Russians are not equipped to evacuate and safeguard that many civilians, so it is quite a grim situation.

Ukraine is doing what it can by taking out the GRADs from their side of the border, and this partially explaining the increased number of destroyed artillery, yesterday that was 40 destroyed tube artillery and an unknown number of missile artillery.

If I may hint, expect some other news soon."
 
Some reports(non that I am 100% sure of reliability) of one possibly two further incursions into different parts of Belgorod by the separatist. Also Russia is saying it has destroyed a large amount of the "terrorist equipment" and killed 70 of them shared alongside some dodgy videos of explosions on vehicles, again probably propaganda for the Russian home audience.
*I'm finding it difficult over the past day or so to separate fact(or at least confirmed reports) from propaganda, the Russian bots are certainly out in full force at the minute.
 
I am out T the moment but he has just told me that they have crossed the border in other places and the settlements in Liberty's control number 9 at last count. There is talk of troops being brought from Lugansk but nothing moved yet. The big WTF was Girlin coming out in support. Which, given that he is FSB and the FSB are fighting Liberty is mental. Mate reckons he will be trying to buy himself a pardon.
 
BBC News, still reciting the Russian narrative.


Meanwhile

If I was cynical type of thinker and somebody who would make unfounded accusations(which I am most definitely not),then that article by the BBC could be classed as almost pro Russian narrative, there could be some people(again not me I don't think like that) which would maybe accuse the BBC of being on the Russian payroll. Obviously it would be a ridiculous accusation but that article definitely seems a little off what I am seeing online, unless I look at profiles/accounts with a Russian flag or a Z attached to it.
 
So, what is it?

"Yesterday a few Vatnik's tried to portray the attack on Bilhorod People's Republic as showing weakness on the Ukrainian part.
This was rapidly picked up on in the sphere of Punditry.

In the public space we are seeing a lot of happy Russian freedom fighter's running around having fun on endless Russian roads shooting **** up as they please.
Was it really them that did it?
Of course not.
First of all, they are supported by every single Foreign Legion in Ukraine.
Was it all of them that did it?
Of course not.

They where not even involved in the breaching of the border station.
That was done by a full artillery brigade and what is to the best of my knowledge the most powerful brigade in the world.
Hours of massive artillery fire preparation was followed by 'Monster' Brigade charging up to the Border Post demolishing it with tanks at short range, they then cleared a huge area. And we all know who did that happy stampede.
They entered Russia fully 1 hour 30 minute before any Free Russia soldier entered, and they remained inside Russia until the night.
This is all corroborated by Russian sources and local media.

Raid or Invasion?
This is a good question.
A raid is a force attacking and causing havoc for typically up to 5 days, it usually does not have a logistics chain set up, and basically forages for what it needs.
A true offensive has a longer term goal and has a supply chain set up.

So what is this? Problem is that we do not really know.
If it was a raid it would be smaller since having several legions running around like this would have sucked every petrol station dry in half a day.
And, we also do not know what supply Ukraine might have set up really.
It was obviously intended as a raid, but an unusually large one, and with at least fuel being carted in.
But, it has a lot of leeway in how it develops, and Ukraine is obviously open for amending it, putting in a larger supply chain can be done rapidly from a distribution hub, Ukraine is very good at this.
If Russia does not send sufficient forces to cause a problem, they will continue causing havoc and advancing.

Personally I find the entire debate boring.
I use a different term that is more apt: Military Trolling Expedition.
I will return to this.

Goal
This is where everyone is getting lost.
There are several goals: Fear, Confusion, Response, Humiliation...
Let us go through them from Tactical, Strategic and Political perspectives.

Tactics: It is weakening locally the artillery and air defence plus containing easy to achieve local military goals such as killing a lot of FSB and Rosgvardia forces, or driving those away.

Strategical:
Here is where it is getting more interesting.
Russia had no troops along the entire border from Belarus to Luhansk with the exception of artillery, missile units, air force and air defence.
Fairly idiotic of Russia, but they got Bakhmutsexual and pulled them out.
The main strategical goal is to suck forces out of Ukraine to cover the border.
Problem is that Russia seems to not do that, or at least is just sending a minor unit, the 93rd Motorised Rifle Brigade.
This Brigade is so depleted that it is less than half of a battalion in strength (300ish men) and lack equipment.
And they are supposed to fight off 1000+ men attacking along 3 different vectors.
Sorry, but....
This in turn forces Ukraine to force the attack into Russia to achieve this goal.

Political
Here the goal is to make Russia look weak and pathetic to the Russian population, and showcase how inept their political and military leadership is.
This has been a stunning success, for the first time ALL of the Russian citizens have noticed that the war is a joke, and that the entire world is laughing at them.
As Konstantin explains in the video, the propaganda did not get into gear fast enough, and no answers that anyone believe was sent out.
And the few answers available was from the local Governor, and he is not happy at all and told pretty much the truth.


Goal conclusion
Ukraine will have to drive home this one to achieve this as a strategic victory.
The reason is that Russia's response is way to feeble to work.
At the minimum they will have to belt the 93rd, and then hold the area for a while afterwards until more substantial units are pulled out of Ukraine, or open new lines of attack into Bryansk and Kursk.

This is where I am truly stumped, Russia not reacting to this is just insane.
It is like their entire military leadership is frozen stiff and unable to react to being invaded.
Compare this to Zalushnyy who in 3 days had the country on war footing and had stopped Russia dead in their tracks complete with a mobilisation... you get my point. Armies are usually very very fast in reacting to invasions.

Anyway, Ukraine has the ability to swing in logistics and the artillery etcetera is already in place, so they can effectively do nasty stuff.
And, if needed callsign Monster is sitting idling on the other side of the border waiting to go back on heir dainty tracked feet.
Her entire mission is to pull out a sizeable part of the Russian army, and she will do this while somehow avoiding getting a generals star.
For some reason she is really stubborn on not getting that star.
As a sidenote, a Brigade that is really a small division is never run by a colonel, it is run a by a 1-star general.
And if you are running an entire sector of a frontline you are not a colonel, then you have 2 stars on your shoulders.
I digress, but I do think I will have to have a talk with her about it...

Strength or Weakness
The answer is "Neither & Both at the same time".
The answer lies in the part that there is not a number of offensives, there is only ONE offensive that is in many stages.
Zalyshnyy's plan is utterly genius, and he will go down into the history as one of the truly great generals.
Each stage has an objective that leads to the next and next and next part.

Bakhmut offensive is there to pin down a lot of Russian forces.
Belgorod is to thin out the Russian forces by moving them to the North, and making certain that no Russian forces go from Bakhmut down south.
Every stage has tactical, strategical and political goals to achieve.
None of the stages is "The Offensive", but all of the stages are the offensive.

My point here is that people are not seeing the Forrest for all of the Trees.
The trees are interesting to talk about as you walk past it, but it is always the forest that is important.

Ghosts & OpSec
Yesterday some numbnut started to post images of the Nighthawks flying in a formation across Ukraine during the night, and to make things even worse that person published a picture of the airbase complete with their hangars.
Sigh... the person is arrested now (today), but the damage is now done."
 
Very black comedy. And the political element of Russian dissent.

"General Lapin have now taking over the duty of directing traffic in Bilhorod.
He rapidly reported that he had taken back Grayvoron and bused in Russian propagandists without having secured the country side.

So, as the happy live broadcasting propagandists was reporting about the HUGE Russian victory the trap was sprung as the Free Russians opened up with mortars all around them.
At prime TV the Babushkas of Russia got to see screaming scared propagandists under attack and running away.
The expert part was in not injuring a single reporter...

The 93rd held true to their glorious reputation from Kharkiv and Lyman as they legged it in a glorious fashion from Grayvoron.
You just can't make up this level of incompetence.

Anyway, if Russia was talking yesterday, they are furious about being so openly lied to by their leaders.

Ilya Ponomarov
Right after "The Second Liberation" of Grayvoron Ilya Ponomarov strolled into the town square and held a speech and took the oath of several hundred volunteers (mostly Russian contract soldiers that have defected) and declared that they would continue the fight until they stood at the Red Square.

Ponomarov is a well known Russian politician and was a Senator of the Duma from 2007 to 2016.
He is the only member of the Duma to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Every Russian knows who he is, and as such he is the only extant powerful resistance politician.
On orders of Putin he was driven out of Russia, and seeing him inside Russia spearheading an army is sending shivers down the spine of everyone in Moscow.

Who is backing him?
He is backed by Kasparov, Khodorkovsky, Browder, the Nemtsov movement (now that Kara-Murza is in prison) and basically every single western intelligence agency that like to meddle in (read **** up) Russia.
He is not the ideal candidate for the west, that is Kara-Murza, but he is a damned sight better than the others.
I can live with a liberal democratic communist leading whatever will remain of Russia...
He is a nephew of the Party Ideologue of the Soviet Union (until 1986) and Politburo member Boris Kharitonovich Ponomarev and his mother was a high ranking communist.

He is the leader of what formerly known as the National Republican Army, now known as the Free Russia Movement.
It is not known how many are under this banner, but with known resistance cells, armed groups, the claim of 10 000 in total under arms is not entirely unreasonable.

Ponomarov is both serious and highly capable.
He is weirdly enough well liked by the younger generations due to opposing Crimea, and at the same time by the elders who see him as CCCP Nobility of the Highest Order.
In 2016 in an FSB ordered Gallup he got a 10.2 percent support if he would go up against Putin in the 2018 election, that is a higher number than any other candidate could muster, it is believed that this is why Putin forced him to flee Russia.

Ponomarov is now the unofficial supported candidate and he is given money, weapons, logistical support and the complete go ahead to take Moscow.
Regardless if he succeeds or not he is most certainly gonna cause havoc as he takes on the failing state of Russia head on.
It is also good to remember that there is an election next year in Russia.

Ivan Khurs
For some reason (bribes to Erdogan) Turkey let the spy ship Ivan Khurs through the Bosphorous.
What followed is just another record in Weird.

Someone made a meme about it being attacked, this was picked up and the ship was warned.
The ship then promptly opened fire upon a Turkish fishing vessel (and missed).
So, Russia calmly claimed that it had destroyed three naval drones (they do not have that range...)
And then Russia took footage from when Russia participated in the anti-piracy action in Somalia, with a bit of rapid CGI they added a huge explosion, and then they published it.
Problem is just that you can clearly see that it is a speed-boat complete with crew...

Oddly enough this came at the same time as Ukraine was getting ready to use a new toy that they got for testing purposes from the Department of Crazy Inventions at SAAB Dynamics.
So, Ukraine went "who blew up the ship we wanted to blow up?" and at SAAB they started a party believing that their new boonfangled Hell Class Weapon had sunk the ship (there was faked images of Ivan Khurs sinking).
So, Ukraine scrapped the mission..."
 
Very black comedy. And the political element of Russian dissent.

"General Lapin have now taking over the duty of directing traffic in Bilhorod.
He rapidly reported that he had taken back Grayvoron and bused in Russian propagandists without having secured the country side.

So, as the happy live broadcasting propagandists was reporting about the HUGE Russian victory the trap was sprung as the Free Russians opened up with mortars all around them.
At prime TV the Babushkas of Russia got to see screaming scared propagandists under attack and running away.
The expert part was in not injuring a single reporter...

The 93rd held true to their glorious reputation from Kharkiv and Lyman as they legged it in a glorious fashion from Grayvoron.
You just can't make up this level of incompetence.

Anyway, if Russia was talking yesterday, they are furious about being so openly lied to by their leaders.

Ilya Ponomarov
Right after "The Second Liberation" of Grayvoron Ilya Ponomarov strolled into the town square and held a speech and took the oath of several hundred volunteers (mostly Russian contract soldiers that have defected) and declared that they would continue the fight until they stood at the Red Square.

Ponomarov is a well known Russian politician and was a Senator of the Duma from 2007 to 2016.
He is the only member of the Duma to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Every Russian knows who he is, and as such he is the only extant powerful resistance politician.
On orders of Putin he was driven out of Russia, and seeing him inside Russia spearheading an army is sending shivers down the spine of everyone in Moscow.

Who is backing him?
He is backed by Kasparov, Khodorkovsky, Browder, the Nemtsov movement (now that Kara-Murza is in prison) and basically every single western intelligence agency that like to meddle in (read **** up) Russia.
He is not the ideal candidate for the west, that is Kara-Murza, but he is a damned sight better than the others.
I can live with a liberal democratic communist leading whatever will remain of Russia...
He is a nephew of the Party Ideologue of the Soviet Union (until 1986) and Politburo member Boris Kharitonovich Ponomarev and his mother was a high ranking communist.

He is the leader of what formerly known as the National Republican Army, now known as the Free Russia Movement.
It is not known how many are under this banner, but with known resistance cells, armed groups, the claim of 10 000 in total under arms is not entirely unreasonable.

Ponomarov is both serious and highly capable.
He is weirdly enough well liked by the younger generations due to opposing Crimea, and at the same time by the elders who see him as CCCP Nobility of the Highest Order.
In 2016 in an FSB ordered Gallup he got a 10.2 percent support if he would go up against Putin in the 2018 election, that is a higher number than any other candidate could muster, it is believed that this is why Putin forced him to flee Russia.

Ponomarov is now the unofficial supported candidate and he is given money, weapons, logistical support and the complete go ahead to take Moscow.
Regardless if he succeeds or not he is most certainly gonna cause havoc as he takes on the failing state of Russia head on.
It is also good to remember that there is an election next year in Russia.

Ivan Khurs
For some reason (bribes to Erdogan) Turkey let the spy ship Ivan Khurs through the Bosphorous.
What followed is just another record in Weird.

Someone made a meme about it being attacked, this was picked up and the ship was warned.
The ship then promptly opened fire upon a Turkish fishing vessel (and missed).
So, Russia calmly claimed that it had destroyed three naval drones (they do not have that range...)
And then Russia took footage from when Russia participated in the anti-piracy action in Somalia, with a bit of rapid CGI they added a huge explosion, and then they published it.
Problem is just that you can clearly see that it is a speed-boat complete with crew...

Oddly enough this came at the same time as Ukraine was getting ready to use a new toy that they got for testing purposes from the Department of Crazy Inventions at SAAB Dynamics.
So, Ukraine went "who blew up the ship we wanted to blow up?" and at SAAB they started a party believing that their new boonfangled Hell Class Weapon had sunk the ship (there was faked images of Ivan Khurs sinking).
So, Ukraine scrapped the mission..."

So the Ivan Khurs is undamaged?
 
If I was cynical type of thinker and somebody who would make unfounded accusations(which I am most definitely not),then that article by the BBC could be classed as almost pro Russian narrative, there could be some people(again not me I don't think like that) which would maybe accuse the BBC of being on the Russian payroll. Obviously it would be a ridiculous accusation but that article definitely seems a little off what I am seeing online, unless I look at profiles/accounts with a Russian flag or a Z attached to it.
In that article, the BBC is clearly reporting (and states that it is reporting) Russian claims about the situation in Belgorod.

It does not say the reports are verified or corroborated in any way.

So it's not endorsing or supporting the claims, just stating what those claims are.

If there were a different account being offered by the Ukrainian government (for instance) the BBC would be reporting that but so far, the only statement the Ukrainian government have made about the matter, is to deny having anything to do with the incursion - a fact which the BBC is reporting on (see below).

Belgorod: Russian paramilitary group vows more incursions

Ukraine denies involvement in the raid.
 
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In that article, the BBC is clearly reporting (and states that it is reporting) Russian claims about the situation in Belgorod.

It does not say the reports are verified or corroborated in any way.

So it's not endorsing or supporting the claims, just stating what those claims are.

If there were a different account being offered by the Ukrainian government (for instance) the BBC would be reporting that but so far, the only statement the Ukrainian government have made about the matter, is to deny having anything to do with the incursion - a fact which the BBC is reporting on (see below).

Belgorod: Russian paramilitary group vows more incursions

By simply presenting the maskirova/propoganda (from either side) the BBC is not reporting news but acting as a vessel for state propoganda. There's no questioning, interrogation of facts, speaking with military analysts (plenty in the UK) or even exploring the video material that is available. Anyone skimming the headlines would get an entirely false picture. It has been heading this way for a long time. It's not just with regard to this conflict.
 
By simply presenting the maskirova/propoganda (from either side) the BBC is not reporting news but acting as a vessel for state propoganda. There's no questioning, interrogation of facts, speaking with military analysts (plenty in the UK) or even exploring the video material that is available. Anyone skimming the headlines would get an entirely false picture. It has been heading this way for a long time. It's not just with regard to this conflict.
I find Sky news very good at this, they have some knowledgeable military analyst's on, Michael Clark is probably my favourite for his explanations.
If I did offend anyone regarding my BBC comment(it was a little bit tongue in cheek anyway) I apologise, I just find that a more balanced view and looking at the bigger picture would be a better way of reporting on this awful conflict rather than just repeating official lines from either side.
 
I think the issue with the BBC is not so much the reporting, its the lack or scrutiny. I feel a lot of the articles that appear are more like reposts than actual articles/ reporting. I rarely watch the news but I wonder if live broadcasts are similar or have a bit more balance/ scrutiny.
 
I'm dipping between here, the Arrse forum, Al Jazera, Moscow Times and Associated Press - I'm spending too much time looking at it, and it's really depressing tbh.

The BBC, which I generally support (in principle), hasn't been a source if looked at much. Too out of date and regurgitated.
 
The Guardian are - no doubt unintentionally - slipping into bias calling the governor of Donetsk 'Ukraine's governor of Donetsk' - as if the dictator's installed ones are a factor
They are THE governor of Donetsk

Screenshot_2023-05-25-10-44-20-68_965bbf4d18d205f782c6b8409c5773a4.jpg
 
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