The end?

I do appreciate your cautious contributions to this thread but, sometimes, I do wonder if you are not so much "glass half empty" as "I haven't got a glass".

I don't think any of us is setting much stock in the Russian position. I'll quote my mate tonight "It's really confusing, even to the best analysts on the planet".

By the way, for those doubting the Putin doubles, have a look at the Putins in Crimea over the last day or so. There's two of them. Neither of them is real.
Can you put a pic up of each? The real and the two doubles….? Just for comparison like. I’m pretty rubbish at seeing differences individually.
 
I do appreciate your cautious contributions to this thread but, sometimes, I do wonder if you are not so much "glass half empty" as "I haven't got a glass".

I don't think any of us is setting much stock in the Russian position. I'll quote my mate tonight "It's really confusing, even to the best analysts on the planet".

By the way, for those doubting the Putin doubles, have a look at the Putins in Crimea over the last day or so. There's two of them. Neither of them is real.
A corrupt country with an economy the size of Italy versus Ukraine backed by the entire West.
The nuclear threat is all there is now. And how real that threat is, is unknowable.
 
I do appreciate your cautious contributions to this thread but, sometimes, I do wonder if you are not so much "glass half empty" as "I haven't got a glass".

I don't think any of us is setting much stock in the Russian position. I'll quote my mate tonight "It's really confusing, even to the best analysts on the planet".

By the way, for those doubting the Putin doubles, have a look at the Putins in Crimea over the last day or so. There's two of them. Neither of them is real.
I’m always about realistic expectation.

This source has often been well wide of the mark in his speculation but I would dearly love that not to be the case with this most recent missive.
 
Last edited:
Weather is starting to warm up again. Why would the Russians admit defeat now? Does absolutely nothing for them.

More missiles will rain down over the next week.
 
Well, I'll just listen to the guy who is literally casting votes (albeit as a proxy) and see what happens. He's right way more times than he is wrong. To be clear, no-one knows what the outcome will be, but Russia is in a very bad place militarily AND politically. Not sure what will happen with Xi this week now. The Chinese are very concerned about the optics.
 
Full statement:


There’s really nothing conciliatory there.

No mention of pre 1991 borders.

I think Xi and Putin will be talking about how they can get around sanctions when they meet, how China can continue to supply Russia with useful equipment.

Think what you like. The real conversations are going on behind the scenes, as they always do.

Xi has a problem. The Chinese aren't stupid. They know that Xi meeting someone charged with war crimes looks bad and, much as they don't care for what the USA thinks, they care very much about Europe. They also know what the western agencies know about "Putin" in terms of him not being in charge/alive/well. Xi would be talking with Peskov, Patrushev and Lavrov. If there's a meeting with "Putin" it will be for the cameras ... just as Putin in Crimea and Mariupol is for the cameras. The statement quoted above, put out by the drunk foreign secretary, was for the cameras (and the domestic/world home audiences).

But everything is still very much up in the air. Ukraine (Kuleba) abstained from voting on the proposal yesterday (but were actually expected to vote against). We have been here before, when Lavrov went to G9 and had a funny turn before being recalled to Moscow.

Militarily Russia is now even weaker with commanders on the ground right across the front complaining about lack of munitions and having to conduct infantry assaults with no artillary cover. I'll post a video clip if I can find it. Ukraine, meanwhile, is militarily much stronger than it was. It would be good news for all concerned if they didn't have to prove it in the coming months.
 
This was 3 days ago. This fella ain't bad. Biased of course, but comes up with well sourced material from Russian telegram channels.
 
Think what you like. The real conversations are going on behind the scenes, as they always do.

Xi has a problem. The Chinese aren't stupid. They know that Xi meeting someone charged with war crimes looks bad and, much as they don't care for what the USA thinks, they care very much about Europe. They also know what the western agencies know about "Putin" in terms of him not being in charge/alive/well. Xi would be talking with Peskov, Patrushev and Lavrov. If there's a meeting with "Putin" it will be for the cameras ... just as Putin in Crimea and Mariupol is for the cameras. The statement quoted above, put out by the drunk foreign secretary, was for the cameras (and the domestic/world home audiences).

But everything is still very much up in the air. Ukraine (Kuleba) abstained from voting on the proposal yesterday (but were actually expected to vote against). We have been here before, when Lavrov went to G9 and had a funny turn before being recalled to Moscow.

Militarily Russia is now even weaker with commanders on the ground right across the front complaining about lack of munitions and having to conduct infantry assaults with no artillary cover. I'll post a video clip if I can find it. Ukraine, meanwhile, is militarily much stronger than it was. It would be good news for all concerned if they didn't have to prove it in the coming months.
It’s hard to imagine that Xi will agree to meet a Putin double.
 
Think what you like. The real conversations are going on behind the scenes, as they always do.

Xi has a problem. The Chinese aren't stupid. They know that Xi meeting someone charged with war crimes looks bad and, much as they don't care for what the USA thinks, they care very much about Europe. They also know what the western agencies know about "Putin" in terms of him not being in charge/alive/well. Xi would be talking with Peskov, Patrushev and Lavrov. If there's a meeting with "Putin" it will be for the cameras ... just as Putin in Crimea and Mariupol is for the cameras. The statement quoted above, put out by the drunk foreign secretary, was for the cameras (and the domestic/world home audiences).

But everything is still very much up in the air. Ukraine (Kuleba) abstained from voting on the proposal yesterday (but were actually expected to vote against). We have been here before, when Lavrov went to G9 and had a funny turn before being recalled to Moscow.

Militarily Russia is now even weaker with commanders on the ground right across the front complaining about lack of munitions and having to conduct infantry assaults with no artillary cover. I'll post a video clip if I can find it. Ukraine, meanwhile, is militarily much stronger than it was. It would be good news for all concerned if they didn't have to prove it in the coming months.

I agree that China does care what europe thinks . But China already knows europe is starting to turn against it too . Eastern Europe in particular is becoming more hostile to China . I do believe your source is becoming too optimistic sadly , as much as I wish the stuff you were saying to be true

From all of this , we are very much living in a new Cold War . We have to be a lot more vigilant at eastern efforts to destabilise us too. Had Putin bided his time , he actually might have succeeded .
 
I agree that China does care what europe thinks . But China already knows europe is starting to turn against it too . Eastern Europe in particular is becoming more hostile to China . I do believe your source is becoming too optimistic sadly , as much as I wish the stuff you were saying to be true

From all of this , we are very much living in a new Cold War . We have to be a lot more vigilant at eastern efforts to destabilise us too
This source has always been wildly optimistic, even in posts prior to this one.
 
Random Swede claims to know the intricate details of the Russian and Chinese regimes' thinking.

Proclaims for the umpteenth that Russia is surrendering and withdrawing from all occupied land.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Putin is visiting Mariupol.

Must just be sneaking in a visit before they leave.
 
Back
Top