Ukrainian Politics Interlude
Hello from a Sunny place not that much West of *******. I will for rather obvious reasons not be too specific where we are holed up. Especially since we are quite a few here now.
I bet that all of you have read the news and are wondering in the name of all holy hell is going on in Ukraine. So, I thought I should give you a bit of a timeline, a background of sorts, and a bit of a background on both Zelenzkyy and Ukrainians, and a tad about of where this might end up, heck… let me reverse order that.
Zelenzkyy has committed political seppuku in one of the most spectacular fashions of all time. I have previously alluded to him sometimes being a wee bit “hasty” in his judgments, and that he sometimes tends to over-react.
Pair that with insane amounts of stress and pressure, and it was sort of a given that he would over-react and do something stupid in the end, but this is even from the standpoint of knowing him and his impatience, just out there.
Ukrainians and Maidan
Ukrainians are very proud of their democracy and their proven ability to Maidan any leader into oblivion. Ukrainian democracy is young, fresh, raw, and very much in your face. All leaders in Ukraine knows that if they crap up to much Ukrainians will Maidan their arses into the gutters.
Before the war started anti-corruption politics was the single biggest item on the mind of average politically interested Ukrainians. Both of the previous Maidan’s began as anti-corruption protests.
Ukrainians truly hate corruption, and especially corrupt politicians. That is something intimately associated with “Russia” and the Soviet Union.
The second topic before the war was “to belong”, and with that I mean belonging to EU, NATO, and the rest of the Western world. And Ukrainians fully well know that to be able to belong to EU, etcetera, they need to beat corruption into the ground.
When the war began Ukraine was promised those memberships if they just worked hard on rooting out corruption. This gave Ukrainians their almost mythical superpower to fight so hard. Or at least a big part of it.
And finally, Ukrainians are very well versed in what is needed from their side, international politics in general, they are in fact quite savvy on the subject. They know what is needed, and the price that will come if those things are not delivered.
Timeline
It all began as the Counter-espionage service of Ukraine arrested 2 people and started investigations on 10 more at NABU. The suspicion is for espionage for Russia, and sabotage actions. Grave charges indeed.
And since it is wartime paranoia is rampant in Ukraine. And a fair bit of it in the highest leadership, Zelenzkyy included.
So, he asked for a law that would place the two anti-corruption agencies directly under the state prosecutors office, that is entirely controlled by Zelenzkyy. This means that both of those organisations that are there to make certain that he and other politicians are not corrupt, are no longer independent, and that he can stop any investigation.
The Verkhovna Hrada happily created such a law, and with a huge majority voted it in. How huge? First of all everyone in Zelenzkyy’s party voted for it. And all but 13 MPs from the opposition voted for it, and that was when the political trap slammed shut.
The 13 that opposed? They are all from what can best be named the “Anti-Corruption Party of Ukraine”. Anyway, the reason the opposition voted in favour is because they knew that this would be the end of Zelenzkyy.
At this point EU, and a lot of Presidents, MPs, and other organisations like IMF and ECB called and said, “If you sign that into law, there will be consequences, so don’t”. In the end he turned into stubborn Zelenzkyy and signed it.
Ukrainians know that there will be consequences, and they full well respect that, they know that it is up to them to fix the **** that Zelenzkyy created, and they know how to do it, Maidan.
It should here be noted that there is a curfew in place, and that public protests are banned under the wartime exception laws. Ukrainians don’t give a **** about that it is in their eyes their God- given right to protest to save democracy and their path to EU and the rest that is waiting for them.
So, around 10 000 Ukrainians started protesting yesterday. 3 000 in Maidan itself, and around 7 000 in other cities. Note, those 10 000 hit the street within 3 hours. And the police did jack **** against them, they knew that whatever they do it is just likely to make things much worse, and also that it is likely that they will be pounded to pulp.
And then Zelenzkyy went out and presented a gigantic horseradish about there being spies everywhere, and he needed more power to stop it. Talk about chucking fuel on the fire.
Consequences
The savvy Ukrainians knew what would happen. Today EU pointed out that if the law is not reversed, the ongoing membership process will be instantly frozen. This was stated out openly in public by EU. Then Germany followed along, then OECD, next came IMF and ECB. Heck, even the US State Department tagged along on the train.
Payments for the war will continue, but it is likely that EU will limit the civilian economy part of the payments that go to keeping the government running, and IMF/ECB will do the same. Just imagine what a blow that will be.
And no, EU can’t back down on this. That would give Carte Blanche to **** in Poland, Fico and Orbanus. Ukraine just broke against one of the core things it was told to not break. And the Ukrainians full well know this, and what is at stake.
During the day, wherever I went, Ukrainians came up to us in our EU uniforms, and told us to not worry, they’re going to fix things, and that they will do it fast. And we all know how they will do it.
Is this the end of the world?
No, not at all. The war will continue as before. Ukrainians knows how to multitask. The army will continue to fight, full well knowing that the population will deal with what needs to be dealt with.
Weapons will continue to flow, and EU and the rest will not do anything rash. They will wait and see how Ukrainians solve this problem, even in the halls of power in EU, they know the word Maidan.
Politically Zelenzkyy is dead now, there is no recuperating from something like this. Him staying in the Presidential palace is now up to him. His only chance to do so is to rescind the law, how that is done is his problem.
If he does not he will end up on his **** on the curb outside of the presidential palace. If he goes down that road he will be replaced on interim by the PM Yulia Svyrydenko, and she will be forced to hold the election.
And EU would be happy to pay the rather ridiculous cost of holding that during wartime. OSSE and OECD have already signed of on allowing a wartime interim election, and to safeguard its integrity.
Anyway, all will be well in the end, however this ends. That is the conclusion of TG, who I almost had to tie to her chair in the ops centre so she would run away and Maidan with the rest. And guess who is giving advice to Ursula? That same TG.
I agree with her, Ukrainians will fix this, and the best thing we all can do is to let them have at it and support their extracurricular democratic proclivities. It is after all their country, and they want the same things we all do, and they know how to do it.
So, who is the most likely winner of the potential election? Well, that would be Zaluzhnyy. Both me and TG has our misgivings about him as a military commander, but he is savvy and a good politician, and he is also 100 percent unbribable and uncorrupted.
If there is an election both me and TG will vote for him, since neither of us believe there would be a better candidate, the others are mostly blowhards. Well, unless Tetiana Chornovol would go for it, then we would vote for her.
She is the OG anti-corruption politician, something she was almost beaten to death over. She is also on top of that a personal friend of both of us. For a while she was one of TG’s protégé’s, and she’s pretty much an unstoppable force of nature.
And yes, both of us like the idea of a heavily armed female President, and so does Momsiee for one reason or
another. We shall see what happens in that regard if there is an election. And with the status of Momsie here in Ukraine, all it would take are a few pictures of handshakes between them and she would be in the running against even Zaluzhnyy.
Anyway, all will be well in the end. I do though hope that Zelenzkyy caves and rescinds the law. Less confusion overall, but the trust is gone, and so is his career.
In regards of other things
I had planned to write about something completely different in a day or two. But, for now I just want to say that you should look at the size of explosions near bridges and logistics hubs, and the lack of drones there.
Next, you should also be prepared for video clips of drones dropping barrel sized bombs on top of somewhat morose Russians.
So many new toys, so many things that are not necessarily fired by Ukrainians against Russians. It is now time for my second nightshift in a row in our new field headquarters. Anyway, time to do what is needed to do. Russia will not like it, but who gives a flying eff?"
Post script (Z backing down)
bsky.app
Hello from a Sunny place not that much West of *******. I will for rather obvious reasons not be too specific where we are holed up. Especially since we are quite a few here now.
I bet that all of you have read the news and are wondering in the name of all holy hell is going on in Ukraine. So, I thought I should give you a bit of a timeline, a background of sorts, and a bit of a background on both Zelenzkyy and Ukrainians, and a tad about of where this might end up, heck… let me reverse order that.
Zelenzkyy has committed political seppuku in one of the most spectacular fashions of all time. I have previously alluded to him sometimes being a wee bit “hasty” in his judgments, and that he sometimes tends to over-react.
Pair that with insane amounts of stress and pressure, and it was sort of a given that he would over-react and do something stupid in the end, but this is even from the standpoint of knowing him and his impatience, just out there.
Ukrainians and Maidan
Ukrainians are very proud of their democracy and their proven ability to Maidan any leader into oblivion. Ukrainian democracy is young, fresh, raw, and very much in your face. All leaders in Ukraine knows that if they crap up to much Ukrainians will Maidan their arses into the gutters.
Before the war started anti-corruption politics was the single biggest item on the mind of average politically interested Ukrainians. Both of the previous Maidan’s began as anti-corruption protests.
Ukrainians truly hate corruption, and especially corrupt politicians. That is something intimately associated with “Russia” and the Soviet Union.
The second topic before the war was “to belong”, and with that I mean belonging to EU, NATO, and the rest of the Western world. And Ukrainians fully well know that to be able to belong to EU, etcetera, they need to beat corruption into the ground.
When the war began Ukraine was promised those memberships if they just worked hard on rooting out corruption. This gave Ukrainians their almost mythical superpower to fight so hard. Or at least a big part of it.
And finally, Ukrainians are very well versed in what is needed from their side, international politics in general, they are in fact quite savvy on the subject. They know what is needed, and the price that will come if those things are not delivered.
Timeline
It all began as the Counter-espionage service of Ukraine arrested 2 people and started investigations on 10 more at NABU. The suspicion is for espionage for Russia, and sabotage actions. Grave charges indeed.
And since it is wartime paranoia is rampant in Ukraine. And a fair bit of it in the highest leadership, Zelenzkyy included.
So, he asked for a law that would place the two anti-corruption agencies directly under the state prosecutors office, that is entirely controlled by Zelenzkyy. This means that both of those organisations that are there to make certain that he and other politicians are not corrupt, are no longer independent, and that he can stop any investigation.
The Verkhovna Hrada happily created such a law, and with a huge majority voted it in. How huge? First of all everyone in Zelenzkyy’s party voted for it. And all but 13 MPs from the opposition voted for it, and that was when the political trap slammed shut.
The 13 that opposed? They are all from what can best be named the “Anti-Corruption Party of Ukraine”. Anyway, the reason the opposition voted in favour is because they knew that this would be the end of Zelenzkyy.
At this point EU, and a lot of Presidents, MPs, and other organisations like IMF and ECB called and said, “If you sign that into law, there will be consequences, so don’t”. In the end he turned into stubborn Zelenzkyy and signed it.
Ukrainians know that there will be consequences, and they full well respect that, they know that it is up to them to fix the **** that Zelenzkyy created, and they know how to do it, Maidan.
It should here be noted that there is a curfew in place, and that public protests are banned under the wartime exception laws. Ukrainians don’t give a **** about that it is in their eyes their God- given right to protest to save democracy and their path to EU and the rest that is waiting for them.
So, around 10 000 Ukrainians started protesting yesterday. 3 000 in Maidan itself, and around 7 000 in other cities. Note, those 10 000 hit the street within 3 hours. And the police did jack **** against them, they knew that whatever they do it is just likely to make things much worse, and also that it is likely that they will be pounded to pulp.
And then Zelenzkyy went out and presented a gigantic horseradish about there being spies everywhere, and he needed more power to stop it. Talk about chucking fuel on the fire.
Consequences
The savvy Ukrainians knew what would happen. Today EU pointed out that if the law is not reversed, the ongoing membership process will be instantly frozen. This was stated out openly in public by EU. Then Germany followed along, then OECD, next came IMF and ECB. Heck, even the US State Department tagged along on the train.
Payments for the war will continue, but it is likely that EU will limit the civilian economy part of the payments that go to keeping the government running, and IMF/ECB will do the same. Just imagine what a blow that will be.
And no, EU can’t back down on this. That would give Carte Blanche to **** in Poland, Fico and Orbanus. Ukraine just broke against one of the core things it was told to not break. And the Ukrainians full well know this, and what is at stake.
During the day, wherever I went, Ukrainians came up to us in our EU uniforms, and told us to not worry, they’re going to fix things, and that they will do it fast. And we all know how they will do it.
Is this the end of the world?
No, not at all. The war will continue as before. Ukrainians knows how to multitask. The army will continue to fight, full well knowing that the population will deal with what needs to be dealt with.
Weapons will continue to flow, and EU and the rest will not do anything rash. They will wait and see how Ukrainians solve this problem, even in the halls of power in EU, they know the word Maidan.
Politically Zelenzkyy is dead now, there is no recuperating from something like this. Him staying in the Presidential palace is now up to him. His only chance to do so is to rescind the law, how that is done is his problem.
If he does not he will end up on his **** on the curb outside of the presidential palace. If he goes down that road he will be replaced on interim by the PM Yulia Svyrydenko, and she will be forced to hold the election.
And EU would be happy to pay the rather ridiculous cost of holding that during wartime. OSSE and OECD have already signed of on allowing a wartime interim election, and to safeguard its integrity.
Anyway, all will be well in the end, however this ends. That is the conclusion of TG, who I almost had to tie to her chair in the ops centre so she would run away and Maidan with the rest. And guess who is giving advice to Ursula? That same TG.
I agree with her, Ukrainians will fix this, and the best thing we all can do is to let them have at it and support their extracurricular democratic proclivities. It is after all their country, and they want the same things we all do, and they know how to do it.
So, who is the most likely winner of the potential election? Well, that would be Zaluzhnyy. Both me and TG has our misgivings about him as a military commander, but he is savvy and a good politician, and he is also 100 percent unbribable and uncorrupted.
If there is an election both me and TG will vote for him, since neither of us believe there would be a better candidate, the others are mostly blowhards. Well, unless Tetiana Chornovol would go for it, then we would vote for her.
She is the OG anti-corruption politician, something she was almost beaten to death over. She is also on top of that a personal friend of both of us. For a while she was one of TG’s protégé’s, and she’s pretty much an unstoppable force of nature.
And yes, both of us like the idea of a heavily armed female President, and so does Momsiee for one reason or
another. We shall see what happens in that regard if there is an election. And with the status of Momsie here in Ukraine, all it would take are a few pictures of handshakes between them and she would be in the running against even Zaluzhnyy.
Anyway, all will be well in the end. I do though hope that Zelenzkyy caves and rescinds the law. Less confusion overall, but the trust is gone, and so is his career.
In regards of other things
I had planned to write about something completely different in a day or two. But, for now I just want to say that you should look at the size of explosions near bridges and logistics hubs, and the lack of drones there.
Next, you should also be prepared for video clips of drones dropping barrel sized bombs on top of somewhat morose Russians.
So many new toys, so many things that are not necessarily fired by Ukrainians against Russians. It is now time for my second nightshift in a row in our new field headquarters. Anyway, time to do what is needed to do. Russia will not like it, but who gives a flying eff?"
Post script (Z backing down)
Margarete Rosalind Weidenhammer (@margareterosali.bsky.social)
Yulia Svyrydenko @Svyrydenko_Y Today,we had a substantive meeting with the #G7 ambassadors focused on one of the most important areas–anti-corruption policy. The #Ukrainian Government is fully committed to zero tolerance for corruption.This principle will be clearly reflected in the government⬇️