An interesting one.... bear in mind, the latter part is riffing on guesswork. But it is very well informed guesswork.
"When you look at Lukashenko it is easy to see a buffoon picking potatoes in a flyspeck banana republic, or perhaps more accurately a potato republic. People tend to snicker in regards of his antics and at him picking potatoes.
What most people miss is that he is very much the opposite, he is easily one of the ten shrewdest and smartest politicians in existence. He truly needed to be that to stay in power for so long.
On top of that he is absolutely ruthless beyond his carefully sculpted image of bonhomme buffoonery. For 3 decades he skillfully navigated the waters between the West and the East.
He came up through the ranks of the communist party in the Soviet Union. Being an agronomist by trade he went the usual route to gain in standing, and was among other things the leader of a sovkhoz (state company farm). A kolkhoz is a collective farm, a different entity type.
He also served in both the border guards and in the Soviet Army and has a teaching degree. He became an ordinary deputy of the Byelorussian USSR and while in office he became known and well liked by the Byelorussians for his hard work on rooting out corruption.
He was though not so loved by his peers since he got oodles of them sacked and imprisoned for corruption.
His anti-corruption work brought him the victory in the first Presidential election, and him avoiding the steel-bath liberalization and keeping the economy running gave him the subsequent election wins.
It was not until the 2020 election that he needed to fib the election results to stay in power. And he is now up for election again this year. Something that is important to know and understand.
Next you need to know and truly understand two things about him. He sees himself as the true leader of the of the Byelorussian – Russian Union, and that he should be the leader of the Russian Republic.
He was promised this by Jetlsin, and being a true Soviet politician he sees himself as much superior to the nobody Putin. He sees Putin as a lowlife thug not worthy of the office. To Uncle Luka Putin is just a small **** KGB shtool that is defiling the hallowed halls once walked by true giants of the Communist Party, and he sees himself as the last of the great Soviet Leaders.
You just can’t imagine how intensely Uncle Luka hates Putin. Especially now that Putin is destroying everything that Uncle Luka hoped that he would be able to achieve as the leader of a reformative USSR.
Instead he was relegated to a diminutive role by the bunker-dwarf, a comedic sideline act of history.
Before we continue, how shrewd and cunning is Uncle Luka? It is hard learned tradition in Western Europe that no leader is to be left alone with Uncle Luka. He will outwit any such foolhardy leader.
If EU has to deal with him we will send the smartest b***r of a politician we can find, and then fill the room with subject specialists, and we do not detour from the preset agenda. This means
that only Kallas and Momsie are authorized to deal with him, the rest are seen as not able to handle him.
Sternly stupid
The US is though made out of sternly stupid stuff. They sent in Kellogg all alone with a single interpreter to deal with Uncle Luka. We do not know exactly what came out of that meeting. We do only know that Uncle Luka to the surprise of everyone set President-in-Exile Tsichonouskaya’s husband, Sierhei Tsichonouska free.
He is the single largest political threat to Uncle Luka. Uncle Luka had to chuck him in prison before the 2020 election in an attempt to curb the opposition and win, but instead his wife took up the torch, and won the election just on the merrit of being his wife.
What else was agreed upon is not known as of now. Kellogg and the US is patting their backs and lauding themselves with a huge diplomatic win. What else was agreed upon is though unknown. I’m though extremely certain that everything is exactly like Uncle Luka had planned it, and that the US ended up on the rafters and are to daft to realise what happened.
Guesses
I have seen a lof of guesswork on what had been agreed on as payment for Tsichounoska’s release. One of the more common is a guess that Uncle Luka got the US to lift some of the sanctions on Belarus.
This may well be true, but obviously Uncle Luka know that this is just a bunch of bull****, he is well aware that Belarus is landlocked, and that the only way to get goods in that are sanctioned is either via the border to EU, or the border to Ukraine.
And without EU also agreeing to lift sanctions, not a single thing will have changed whatever now the US agreed to.
Connecting dots
We live in a time where Punderati sprout forth opinions without ever having studied the matter subject beforehand, not even the rudimentary parts. Instead they just blurt out something in an attempt to sound intelligent.
Kellogg unlike Witkoff is not an idiot. He knew that he was playing against and open goal in regards of getting a cheap political win, he just swooped in and got the win that came from more than a year of careful negotiations between EU and Uncle Luka.
Something that I’m certain amused Uncle Luka no end. Sierhei being released was already a thing, and it is the important part. Uncle Luka know exactly what he is doing by releasing the largest living threat to his power in Belarus and his Presidency.
Uncle Luka knows that Russia is going down, he knows that his dream of a rebirth of the USSR is doomed by his hated bunker-dwarf, and he knows well enough that there will be no Russia for
him to lead in the future. His lifelong ambition is in ruins, and he is blaiming Putin for this, and rightfully so.
He also knows that he is now President on borrowed time. He had to suffer the indignity of having to ask Putin for help to remain in power in 2020. He also knows that whatever happens in 2025 he will need to cheat like a madman to win, and that the protests will explode again. And this time around not even Russia can save him.
And then Putin had to go and start a war with Ukraine. It took all his considerable skill to not end up a part of that war. It was a balancing act on a swords edge, but he managed it well enough.
Moi & Uncle Luka
My role is simple, to give Putin as many headaches as I can humanly produce. How do you go about that? Simple, you stretch the resources of Russia as thin as possible, and you loop off parts that Putin truly want in the world.
I have previously written extensively about how we are trying to get in control of former soviet- republics and other places of Russian influence. It is an all out offensive across continents, fought with politics, diplomacy and gunboat politics, and a bit of special forces as icing on the cake.
Currently every single former soviet-republic is either in our hands, or seriously threatened to fall into our sphere of influence, with one exception. And that is Belarus. Or is it?
Don’t kid yourself, Belarus is the grand price, the cherry on top of the largest campaign of derussification in history. Of course we are doing our darnedest to wrestle it out of the cold semi-dead hands of Putin.
Uncle Luka? He wants to **** over Putin to kingdom come, and walk into the sunset to live out the rest of his days ******* on the remnants of Putin in his grave. Preferably he would like to **** on that grave on a daily basis.
He also knew that whatever he does, he will almost certainly not be President of Belarus next year. Belarus is a powder-kegg that is lit under his ****, and there’s nothing he can do about it.
If he attempts to cling to power he will just be ripped apart by the Belarusian population and he will end up hanged in a lamp post. That will in turn leave the country in turmoil and Russia will be able to take over.
And Uncle Luka wish to have Putin ****ed-over, not be the new leader of Belarus.
No, instead he is prepping to run an election against the popular Sierhei, and then he will say “the will of the people” and annoint Sierhei as President, and b***r off to his house overlooking a Suisse lake and the billions waiting for him in Suisse banks.
This is his solution to the trilemma he is in. If he would cheat his way into a new term, he will either be fully in the hands of Putin, or be ripped apart by his population, and then Russia takes over. He also knows that it is doubtful that Putin would even want him in power again.
He has after all done b***r all to help Putin in the war, and Putin is probably not strong enough to even be able to help him even if he wished to do so.
No, better to let Sierhei win the election, and letting him rally the Belarusian’s against Putin and turn the country away from Putin permanently. It is after all one hell of a revenge.
And being universally disliked in Belarus, and due to almost certainly being a wanted man by the next Belarusian government, he needed to buy his way out. And no way better than to look benevolent and release Sierhei.
I have no doubt that Uncle Luka haggled like a madman for other things from the US. I even think I know what he haggled for, and that is food. Belarus has been robbed by Russia in that regard. He is already purchasing food from Europe, or more to the point, he is purchasing Ukrainian food via Europe.
But no, the main goal for Uncle Luka was to have Sierhei set free in a way that didn’t look like he wanted him free, and Kellogg skilfully walked into that trap, and he even got to give EU a wedgie while at it, we had already made an agreement for it to happen, but he wanted us to get shagged just on the general principle of being Uncle Luka.
How good is he? Just one more example. He got the Suisse government to give him a very nice large villa with a lakeview for free. He is as such the only person alive to getting a single thing for free in Switzerland.
Regardles if we win, or not, it will be a ginormous migraine for Putin trying to sort out the fallout of Uncle Luka’s plan. In the end though Belarus will be a free country, and it will take a huge step towards the West and democracy, and a future EU Membership."