The end?

Jeffrey Sachs has come out with a pretty much unbroken chain of bull**** on Ukraine & the surrounding narrative since late last year. Pretty much par for the course.
Agreed. Just interesting that's it's been spoken about on national TV.
 
Oh God!

Not sure if this has been mentioned or not but this is frightening!

Train operated by Russia’s secretive nuclear divison spotted heading towards front line
A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.
 
Oh God!

Not sure if this has been mentioned or not but this is frightening!

Train operated by Russia’s secretive nuclear divison spotted heading towards front line
A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.
tbh Russia has been using those Kalibr cruise missiles since the start and they are nuclear capable, & I've read pieces discussing if this was a kind of see what I can do message, so if this train story is right and he's once again trying to up his threat than maybe we can expect some sort of unexpected nuclear test somewhere rather than actually using them in the battlefield?
 
Oh God!

Not sure if this has been mentioned or not but this is frightening!

Train operated by Russia’s secretive nuclear divison spotted heading towards front line
A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.

Check my post about 4 above yours, I preemptively posted it as I knew it would get mentioned!
 
OK, this is a long one. I can't even begin to salami this one up for you so you can have the whole text.

"
This could equally well have been called, Musing on the Coup.
It is though a bit to early to say there is a coup.

Militarily the war is now over. With two major frontlines that have collapsed completely and half of the Russian army legging it like undernurished middle-aged Usain Bolts in flipflops it is clearly not possible to recover.
The difference is that now it is out in the open in Russia.
What is happening is in the news, with a 48 hour delay.
What needs interpretation is not legging Russians and Ukrainians belting the snot out of anything moving, that is how far the war has gone, there is right now nothing to say about it from a military standpoint. It can be best described with the Russian word Shtool.
Only thing remaining is the question of what day our favourite bodyparts deprived Slavinska will get to storm Kherson.
What might need a bit of Musing is what is happening in Russia, and it is a major tectonic shift.

Kadyrov
It all started when Kadyrov said that all was ****, the military a joke, and that there is corruption among the top generals, and that the problems went all the way up to the top. He stopped prior to naming Putin, but everyone understood what he meant.
It was a mighty opening salvo on his attempt of taking the throne, and it opened the floodgates of the criticism.

The Media
All of a sudden the propagandists did an about turn, and started criticising exactly everything. Calling the annexation a joke, calling out corruption, bad leadership, questioning the war, and in the end even trying out criticising Putin directly. Just days ago this would have landed them in prison, now nothing happens. The wheels have indeed shifted.
The more "serious" Russian media like Kommersant is writing page after page on the losses on the frontlines, the failures, the corruption, and calling for negotiations.
Tectonic shift.

The War Party
This party is now solidly in the hands of Kadyrov, to the dismay of Medvedev and other war-mongerers like Lavror. To their surprise they find that the war is now impopular among ordinary Russians, and that even the army is starting to say that they have lost. These are the guys that pushed Putin to make the failed annexation and the equally failed mobilisation.

The Doves
From nonexisting to a viable option in just a few days. Everyone thought it would be the Mayor of Moscow that would form this grouping. It turned out to be two very surprising men, but giants as Russian politics go.
They started their two flank attack with Peskov attacking the annexation infront of the sitting Duma on the brink of them signing the annexations into law.
They had just signed in Donetsk Oblast into Russia when Peskov took to the floor and said they had lost control of Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, and that nobody knew where the borders are any longer, and that Russia would need to "consult with the locals further" before ratifying the annexations. The steam went out of that room with gusto at that point.
Note here that "Putin" has not contradicted Peskov on this.
Up jumped Lieutenant Igor Konashenkov. He is the highest ranking military with a functioning brain, he is also the same guy doing the daily presentations about the war. Like Peskov, every single blooming Russian knows who he is.
He sold out Gerasimov and Soyghurt and the commanders in the field in a manner that is glorious in its brevity.
He stated that "Russia has lost controll of the occupied areas in Ukraine, and that it is unlikely that Russia can contain the advance on occupied territory". He then stated that the reason was Soyghurt and corrupt generals filled with nepotism.
So within hours of each other Konashenkov and Peskov said the same basic things.
We are losing the occupied territory, we can't do anything about it. This opens up for a retreat to Crimea (that every Russian considers to be Russia).
Without mentioning Putin it is obvious to every Russian that they implied him.
Then Peskov ripped out a new orifice out of Lavrov, claiming that it was his fault that there was no ongoing negotiations with Ukraine, and that Lavrov was not the man to lead those negotiations in the future.
I am certain that Peskov and Konashenkov is working in tandem. Peskov needs the army since he yet does not have FSB support, the army will need "civilian" support against FSB (see below). And both of them would be dead if Kadyrov takes over.
Both of them are ready to strengthen Crimea with everything Russia has left, and then use the entire shebang as a giant bargaining chip against sanctions, return of trade, return of travell, spareparts, the works that makes Russia run.
Both of them want back to 2013 when cocaine, yachts, supermodels, and the cash flowed. And, they want that to flow in their direction and not into Putins pockets.
Losing Crimea? That they can blame on Gerasimov, Soyghurt, Kadyrov and Putin. Which pretty much is already what the press is doing. The Media seems to be fairly supportive of the pair, at least they are out of the crosshairs for now.
Currently those two are squarely on top.

FSB
Patrushev is biding his time. But, he is definitely shifting his allegiances, stances and so on.
He is the penultimate turncoat, but he is an extremely well informed turncoat.
And he was against the war from getgo since he knew it would all go to ****.
He even tried to go against Putin when Putin held that rambling pre-war meeting.
Patrushev knew that the army was in no state to win, he knew about the coruption, he knew that the west was not soft, he knew that Ukraine would not embrace them. He knew. But, I think even he was surprised that it turned into such a majestic clusterfuck for Russia. At least I do not think so, if he had known he would had killed Putin when he had the chance to do so.

For now Patrushev is ripping into the Kommissars in charge of the mobilisation for breaking their orders, and into thieving army generals. Lots of criminal investigations signed by Patrushev all over Russia. On this he is eagerly urged on by many Governors in Russia.
Obviously this at the same time weakens the Russian armys position, and he has always wanted that.

During the war and after his failed attempt he came out as supportive, but he moved his hands away from his former protegé Medvedev. He also tried to kill Dugin. It is also likely that he has been behind the non-gas related defenestrations in Russia. But unlike Mikhail he goes for politicians and not gas-company bosses.

Now he is quiet, weighing his options of whom to support. He will not take the throne himself, he is the penultimate kingmaker. He wants someone under his thumb, that is credible to both the West and the Russian people. And that will end the war and the sanctions. No war and sanctions in place and Russia will be thrown into a civil war, and he is against those things. Patrushev likes things as they used to be, a Russia led by someone he controlled, but Putin wriggled out of his control in the end. Patrushev will not make that mistake again.
Patrushev hates Kadyrov with a vengeance.

Patrushev will not pick Kasyanov, he would not be able to control Kasyanov. The Mayor of Moscow would be one option, but for some reason the Mayor is not (so far) going for the throne.
Remaining are Peskov and Konashenkov. He can control those two, he knows their dirt. Problem is that with Konashenkov in the mix even Peskov can wriggle out from his grip quite easily using Konashenkov. And Konashenkov will not trust Patrushev. He would with those two end up in a menage á trois, a Russian troika. Not impossible if nothing else comes out of the woods, but heck knows who that would be now.

"Putin"
This is unlike the above speculative. At least in part.
On the 20th of September Putin sent out 25 billion USD to Turkey, the world was ablase with rumours about Russia starting peace talks, and even Erdögan was convinced of this after getting the go ahead from Putin. Xi believed this, so did Modi of India. All Western intel stated that the 21st of September would be the beginning of the end of the war.
A speech was scheduled in the evening, where Putin would blame the Army, corruption, and the cat, for the loss. He would then appoint someone to lead a transitional government and the peace talks, and then walk out into the dusk and ride out of Russia. All was prepaired, the wheels turning.
SCREECH!!!
Instead we got an old theater screening, and classical music for hours. Then just a short notice that Putin would give a pre recorded message in the morning the next day.
During the evening and the night rumours about an upcoming mobilisation exploded, and in the morning a "putin" told about the mobilisation.
Either Putin had the mother of all pouty about turns (after sending away his own money to be seized without his cooperation in the plan), or Putins career ended then and there.
Either he was killed, or he is in house arrest in Sochi.
After that nobody has seen Putin, only his body doubles, nor has his goat travelled from Sochi.
I know everyone thinks I am joking about the goat, or that it is a euphemism for something else. But, no. I mean his literal pet goat, it has travelled with Putin for years. Where the goat goes, there goes Putin. Last time the goat moved was from The Far East to Sochi, and then the blasted thing has not moved.
Dead or alive is a moot question, he is currently in the hands of Schrödinger. Both alive and dead at the same time.
Who got to him is a good question, my guess is the War Party with Medvedev and Lavrov running point. I do not think Kadyrov was involved, but that he generally blessed it. If Kadyrov had been directly involved Putin would have been killed in the Red Square in a gruesome manner.
After "Putin" came into being all of a sudden the War Party got everything they wished for, something that Putin had flat out refused.
Anyway, this is speculative.
Regardless of Putin is Schrödingers "putin", he is out of the equation now.

Conclusion
Unless Patrushev can pull someone extraordinary out of his hat, or if someone pulls himself out of the hat, Peskov it will be.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky does not have either the army or the FSB behind him, but he has the violence capital and the cash on hand to do a good attempt, if not for himself, so for either Kasparov, Kasyanov or Ponomarenko.
Remaining is Satan in Patyak Prison, or Kara-Murza.
No way that Patrushev would deal with Navalny, well except for killing him. Navalny is just to nasty for even Patrushevs lofty acceptance of horrible people.
Kara-Murza is just way to honest.

No, unless Peskov dies in the next few days he will be it. Konashenkov will be the new Defence Minister, and the war will be over.
Peskov will quite deftly haggle away the sanctions in return of Crimea, crimes court cooperation (excepting him of course), and some sort of restitution that will not be cutting to much into the cocaine bill.
Ukraine would take that to save lives, and get some sort of justice.
Peskov would even happily wave to Zelenskyy as he signs the NATO paperwork.
After that the Party Years will start in Moscow. Cocaine, Models, Champagne, Diamonds, Glitz, and the entire decadent shebang of a Dying Empire.
Then, Revolution.
My only question is who will lead that revolution. Kara-Murza into a democracy, or Ponomarenko into a chinese-style Soviet Union. Might even be the return of a new Lenin. Or, a new Hitler blasing for revenge for a lost war."

I should add that, although there is a lot of good insider factual info in this, it should be read as an "opinion piece". Still, it might be considered informative for some of you following this thread.
 
Last edited:
OK, this is a long one. I can't even begin to salami this one up for you so you can have the whole text.

"
This could equally well have been called, Musing on the Coup.
It is though a bit to early to say there is a coup.

Militarily the war is now over. With two major frontlines that have collapsed completely and half of the Russian army legging it like undernurished middle-aged Usain Bolts in flipflops it is clearly not possible to recover.
The difference is that now it is out in the open in Russia.
What is happening is in the news, with a 48 hour delay.
What needs interpretation is not legging Russians and Ukrainians belting the snot out of anything moving, that is how far the war has gone, there is right now nothing to say about it from a military standpoint. It can be best described with the Russian word Shtool.
Only thing remaining is the question of what day our favourite bodyparts deprived Slavinska will get to storm Kherson.
What might need a bit of Musing is what is happening in Russia, and it is a major tectonic shift.

Kadyrov
It all started when Kadyrov said that all was ****, the military a joke, and that there is corruption among the top generals, and that the problems went all the way up to the top. He stopped prior to naming Putin, but everyone understood what he meant.
It was a mighty opening salvo on his attempt of taking the throne, and it opened the floodgates of the criticism.

The Media
All of a sudden the propagandists did an about turn, and started criticising exactly everything. Calling the annexation a joke, calling out corruption, bad leadership, questioning the war, and in the end even trying out criticising Putin directly. Just days ago this would have landed them in prison, now nothing happens. The wheels have indeed shifted.
The more "serious" Russian media like Kommersant is writing page after page on the losses on the frontlines, the failures, the corruption, and calling for negotiations.
Tectonic shift.

The War Party
This party is now solidly in the hands of Kadyrov, to the dismay of Medvedev and other war-mongerers like Lavror. To their surprise they find that the war is now impopular among ordinary Russians, and that even the army is starting to say that they have lost. These are the guys that pushed Putin to make the failed annexation and the equally failed mobilisation.

The Doves
From nonexisting to a viable option in just a few days. Everyone thought it would be the Mayor of Moscow that would form this grouping. It turned out to be two very surprising men, but giants as Russian politics go.
They started their two flank attack with Peskov attacking the annexation infront of the sitting Duma on the brink of them signing the annexations into law.
They had just signed in Donetsk Oblast into Russia when Peskov took to the floor and said they had lost control of Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, and that nobody knew where the borders are any longer, and that Russia would need to "consult with the locals further" before ratifying the annexations. The steam went out of that room with gusto at that point.
Note here that "Putin" has not contradicted Peskov on this.
Up jumped Lieutenant Igor Konashenkov. He is the highest ranking military with a functioning brain, he is also the same guy doing the daily presentations about the war. Like Peskov, every single blooming Russian knows who he is.
He sold out Gerasimov and Soyghurt and the commanders in the field in a manner that is glorious in its brevity.
He stated that "Russia has lost controll of the occupied areas in Ukraine, and that it is unlikely that Russia can contain the advance on occupied territory". He then stated that the reason was Soyghurt and corrupt generals filled with nepotism.
So within hours of each other Konashenkov and Peskov said the same basic things.
We are losing the occupied territory, we can't do anything about it. This opens up for a retreat to Crimea (that every Russian considers to be Russia).
Without mentioning Putin it is obvious to every Russian that they implied him.
Then Peskov ripped out a new orifice out of Lavrov, claiming that it was his fault that there was no ongoing negotiations with Ukraine, and that Lavrov was not the man to lead those negotiations in the future.
I am certain that Peskov and Konashenkov is working in tandem. Peskov needs the army since he yet does not have FSB support, the army will need "civilian" support against FSB (see below). And both of them would be dead if Kadyrov takes over.
Both of them are ready to strengthen Crimea with everything Russia has left, and then use the entire shebang as a giant bargaining chip against sanctions, return of trade, return of travell, spareparts, the works that makes Russia run.
Both of them want back to 2013 when cocaine, yachts, supermodels, and the cash flowed. And, they want that to flow in their direction and not into Putins pockets.
Losing Crimea? That they can blame on Gerasimov, Soyghurt, Kadyrov and Putin. Which pretty much is already what the press is doing. The Media seems to be fairly supportive of the pair, at least they are out of the crosshairs for now.
Currently those two are squarely on top.

FSB
Patrushev is biding his time. But, he is definitely shifting his allegiances, stances and so on.
He is the penultimate turncoat, but he is an extremely well informed turncoat.
And he was against the war from getgo since he knew it would all go to ****.
He even tried to go against Putin when Putin held that rambling pre-war meeting.
Patrushev knew that the army was in no state to win, he knew about the coruption, he knew that the west was not soft, he knew that Ukraine would not embrace them. He knew. But, I think even he was surprised that it turned into such a majestic clusterfuck for Russia. At least I do not think so, if he had known he would had killed Putin when he had the chance to do so.

For now Patrushev is ripping into the Kommissars in charge of the mobilisation for breaking their orders, and into thieving army generals. Lots of criminal investigations signed by Patrushev all over Russia. On this he is eagerly urged on by many Governors in Russia.
Obviously this at the same time weakens the Russian armys position, and he has always wanted that.

During the war and after his failed attempt he came out as supportive, but he moved his hands away from his former protegé Medvedev. He also tried to kill Dugin. It is also likely that he has been behind the non-gas related defenestrations in Russia. But unlike Mikhail he goes for politicians and not gas-company bosses.

Now he is quiet, weighing his options of whom to support. He will not take the throne himself, he is the penultimate kingmaker. He wants someone under his thumb, that is credible to both the West and the Russian people. And that will end the war and the sanctions. No war and sanctions in place and Russia will be thrown into a civil war, and he is against those things. Patrushev likes things as they used to be, a Russia led by someone he controlled, but Putin wriggled out of his control in the end. Patrushev will not make that mistake again.
Patrushev hates Kadyrov with a vengeance.

Patrushev will not pick Kasyanov, he would not be able to control Kasyanov. The Mayor of Moscow would be one option, but for some reason the Mayor is not (so far) going for the throne.
Remaining are Peskov and Konashenkov. He can control those two, he knows their dirt. Problem is that with Konashenkov in the mix even Peskov can wriggle out from his grip quite easily using Konashenkov. And Konashenkov will not trust Patrushev. He would with those two end up in a menage á trois, a Russian troika. Not impossible if nothing else comes out of the woods, but heck knows who that would be now.

"Putin"
This is unlike the above speculative. At least in part.
On the 20th of September Putin sent out 25 billion USD to Turkey, the world was ablase with rumours about Russia starting peace talks, and even Erdögan was convinced of this after getting the go ahead from Putin. Xi believed this, so did Modi of India. All Western intel stated that the 21st of September would be the beginning of the end of the war.
A speech was scheduled in the evening, where Putin would blame the Army, corruption, and the cat, for the loss. He would then appoint someone to lead a transitional government and the peace talks, and then walk out into the dusk and ride out of Russia. All was prepaired, the wheels turning.
SCREECH!!!
Instead we got an old theater screening, and classical music for hours. Then just a short notice that Putin would give a pre recorded message in the morning the next day.
During the evening and the night rumours about an upcoming mobilisation exploded, and in the morning a "putin" told about the mobilisation.
Either Putin had the mother of all pouty about turns (after sending away his own money to be seized without his cooperation in the plan), or Putins career ended then and there.
Either he was killed, or he is in house arrest in Sochi.
After that nobody has seen Putin, only his body doubles, nor has his goat travelled from Sochi.
I know everyone thinks I am joking about the goat, or that it is a euphemism for something else. But, no. I mean his literal pet goat, it has travelled with Putin for years. Where the goat goes, there goes Putin. Last time the goat moved was from The Far East to Sochi, and then the blasted thing has not moved.
Dead or alive is a moot question, he is currently in the hands of Schrödinger. Both alive and dead at the same time.
Who got to him is a good question, my guess is the War Party with Medvedev and Lavrov running point. I do not think Kadyrov was involved, but that he generally blessed it. If Kadyrov had been directly involved Putin would have been killed in the Red Square in a gruesome manner.
After "Putin" came into being all of a sudden the War Party got everything they wished for, something that Putin had flat out refused.
Anyway, this is speculative.
Regardless of Putin is Schrödingers "putin", he is out of the equation now.

Conclusion
Unless Patrushev can pull someone extraordinary out of his hat, or if someone pulls himself out of the hat, Peskov it will be.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky does not have either the army or the FSB behind him, but he has the violence capital and the cash on hand to do a good attempt, if not for himself, so for either Kasparov, Kasyanov or Ponomarenko.
Remaining is Satan in Patyak Prison, or Kara-Murza.
No way that Patrushev would deal with Navalny, well except for killing him. Navalny is just to nasty for even Patrushevs lofty acceptance of horrible people.
Kara-Murza is just way to honest.

No, unless Peskov dies in the next few days he will be it. Konashenkov will be the new Defence Minister, and the war will be over.
Peskov will quite deftly haggle away the sanctions in return of Crimea, crimes court cooperation (excepting him of course), and some sort of restitution that will not be cutting to much into the cocaine bill.
Ukraine would take that to save lives, and get some sort of justice.
Peskov would even happily wave to Zelenskyy as he signs the NATO paperwork.
After that the Party Years will start in Moscow. Cocaine, Models, Champagne, Diamonds, Glitz, and the entire decadent shebang of a Dying Empire.
Then, Revolution.
My only question is who will lead that revolution. Kara-Murza into a democracy, or Ponomarenko into a chinese-style Soviet Union. Might even be the return of a new Lenin. Or, a new Hitler blasing for revenge for a lost war."

I should add that, although there is a lot of good insider factual info in this, it should be read as an "opinion piece". Still, it might be considered informative for some of you following this thread.
Let’s hope it is a proper democracy, I don’t like the sound of the other options.
 
I keep my fingers crossed.
But exactly a month to the day this thread predicted the imminent demise of the devil he's still there.
 
I keep my fingers crossed.
But exactly a month to the day this thread predicted the imminent demise of the devil he's still there.

Or is he?

Two things, the thread title has a question mark. It was speculative. And in that month, there has definitely been a gradual erosion of Putin's grip on things.

But, as has been said above, we could get something worse (on a Boris Johnson to Liz Truss level).
 
Putins Russia is just one huge mafia organisation.
one Don will replace another and there'll be a massive cull.
But at least hopefully the war will end.... until the next time.
 
Read the last update again. If it's correct, he's been seen to just under a month ago.

If I understand the "musing" correctly, we most likely have only seen his doubles since then, which may explain the odd limp and also the "angry taxi driver" look. Although I find some of that James Bond stuff a bit hard to get my head around. Apparently he has at least 2 doubles that perform "on his behalf".
 
Putins Russia is just one huge mafia organisation.
one Don will replace another and there'll be a massive cull.
But at least hopefully the war will end.... until the next time.

There is nuance to this. They aren't "all" despotic. Unfortunately, the best of the options appears to be keeping out of it for now.
 
Crimea is part of Ukraine
They are getting an anti-submarine corvette ready for delivery in 2024 - which will be based in Sevastopol after Crimea is liberated - and that illegal bridge is knocked down. Hope the huge army of Ukrainians that you mentioned are ready to march on Crimea can liberate it as soon as possible

Russia should not be allowed to keep a single inch of Ukrainian territory
 
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Read the last update again. If it's correct, he's been seen to just under a month ago.
Nah. Not a chance. The West would be all over it.
Love the detail in the rest of it though.
It's well constructed and fascinating... and you know that one the media abandon ship it should be days now.
 
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