The end?

Ok, one for tank nerds ... with a particularly British slant. If you aren't a tank nerd, maybe make a cup of tea rather than wade through it.
That said, I'm about as far from a tank nerd as you can get and I found it weirdly fascinating.

"Since I can't really write about anything in Ukraine, except what they agree to release...
One thing I can though write about are the tanks going to Ukraine, and from a slightly personal perspective to boot.

Our Leopard IISE (5+) are getting a bit long in the tooth, and it is time to get new ones.
Buying any new equipment is a lengthy process, so this one started back when I was an active colonel, and for reasons that will become clear I hung around the process up until it passed from the colonel stage towards generals and politicians.

5 tank colonels was picked with slightly different backgrounds and tank experiences.
I was included since I am so ancient that I drove I commanded one of the trial tanks from the last time around, and drove the others back then.
Cheese I am old.
I got foisted with the T90 the Russians hoped to sell back then to Sweden, it was an actual option back in the day.

I have also tested upgrades of the T90 and the T72s, so that was probably the reason.
Also having briefly owned a T84 Oplot impressed the powers that be.

On top of that I have commanded or tested various Leopards, Challengers and Abramseees.

The first option was to build a new MBT ourselves, but we have no spare capacity for the next 10 years to do so, and we have also ordered the light tank CV90/120 Ghost... so no. It would just have been to expensive and delayed.

So, shopping abroad was the idea.
6 countries offered to sell 7 different tanks.
France offered the Leclerq 120mm
Germany offered Leo 2A7 or Leo 3/A1 with the 130mm Rheinmetall/Bofors.
South Korea offered the K2 in 120.
UK offered the Challenger III in 120 with the option of a 130mm gun.
Ukraine offered the T84 Oplot V2 with a 1800Bhp diesel, new electronics from west, and the 130mm gun.
US offered the Abrams M1A2 SEP3 in 120mm

France
The Leclerq is a superb tank with a good balance between speed and protection.
Really manouvrable and good swamp float.
Problem was that it is a goddamn spaceship with way to much electronics that can go poop and disable the tank.
Secondly, the gun is the same we use already, and the armour is not better than what we have now.
But, sexy as heck.
Not good enough to warrant buying them over what we have.

Germany
The Leo 2A7 offering is the fastest and most manouvrable of all tanks on offer, the armour is improved, but the gun is the same. The electronics is highly upgraded, but we have had ours revamped too.
Plus here was the improved armour that the A6 and A7 has, but otherwise not enough new capability to warrant buying it.
The Leo 3A1 has the same hull and electronics as the Leo 2A7. What is new here is improved suspension, so even better swamp float and manouvrability, and the gun is the brand new 130mm Rheinmetal.
In short, gun is majestic. Whatever you hit will fly apart like if the Angel of Death struck it. We tested it from the front with a HESH grenade on a T72 with had for some mysterious reason.
The T72 exploded like a rotten pumpkin.... HESH is not meant to be used against armour, but nothing remained of the tank to test the Tungsten Sabot on.
Only drawback with the gun is that the shells are beastly large, but it comes equipped with a semi-autoloader.
We declined due to...

Interlude
We have learned a lot during the war in Ukraine.
Number one is that tanks to be viable must be much better armoured than previously believed, while still being agile and able to perform other tasks like offensive attacks on armoured structures and trenches.
The tank is now back in the historical role. At the same time it must be agile and fast.
This means that we need phat armour and a gun that can do almost anything to anything that might come in the next 30 years on the enemy size.

North Korea
The K2 is a superb tank, but it is basically a good and slightly better armoured comparison to the Leo 2A7.
So, it did not bring enough to the table.

Ukraine
Firstly, the T84 Oplot has nothing to do with the normal Soviet/Russian crap.
The armour is Chobham equivalent of high standard, the new engine is a beast, the turret was increased in size and fairly comfy for oversized Swedes, the driver did though complain and I could not drive it.
The electronics is a best of version using German/Swedish/French thingamabobs, and it worked really well.
It came with the same 130mm Fruitblower as the Leo 3.
It scored the same as the Leo 3A1, and beat the others flat out. So far it was the best armoured by far.
But, sadly... Ukraine can't deliver the until the war is over, and probably not for a year or two after that.
I can though say this, if Ukraine had 100 of these the Russian invasion would have gone differently fast.
The only Russian weapon that can take one out is 152mm artillery hitting directly, the rest will just **** off the crew.

US
Enter the thunder of Detroit.
Gun is the same as we have, the M1A2 SEP3 has all the electronic modcons, but not enough to warrant changing over.
The armour is almost on the scale of the Oplot, but of a slightly older design.
It can definitely boff everything China and Russia has now comfortably.
It does though have an elephant in the Room.
It uses 2.8 times more fuel than the second thirstiest tank... and this is a big nono in the new Green Army we are building.

UKians
This is a true beast of a tank.
Every other tank is a Medium Battle Tank (MBT), UK has given up on all attempts of being sensible here.
In fact, BAE and the UK have gone so bonkers that only UKians can go on to much tea and tallyhoo!
It is a full on 80 ton Heavy Battle Tank (HBT).
Last one stupid enough to build on was Stalin and Hitler.
Problem is that they did not have the engines and technology to pull it off.
The new and improved Chobham armour is THICC.
On that UKians have put on spaced extra armour, and on top of that they have slapped on two different layers of Explosive Contact Armour after learning from Ukraine.
Fully loaded, and with the full battle armour it is pushing close to 100 metric tons.
When the UKians heard that we wanted the 130, the whacked one in.
And then they fired it on another Challenger III (not a full one, but the armour...).
It is as such the only tank in existance that can't kill itself from the front. Holy m..... f...k
It also has automatic track tensioning built in, all the driver need to do is push a button, every other tank you need a greese gun and a giant arsed spanner and 15 minutes (fun if in a firefight...)
It also comes with a built in teakettle, but the one we got had a coffee maker in it, bless the UKians for understanding Swedes.
Obviously it needs a whale of an engine. It has that, and it is a full dieselelectric plug-in-hybrid. You can drive it on electricity for 50km... silent... yum...
It is though a tad slower than what we wanted, but UK promised to fix this by adding more power.
The gun is yum...
Armour is yum...

The top 3
We had a top 3 list in the end, with all others scratched out.
1. Challenger 3... It is blooming fab.
2. Leo 3A1, it has gooood boomstick.
3. Ukrmesh Oplot V2. Second best, but when?

In the end Challenger is the best in all metrics except manouvrability, but it is not worst in that regard.
It got everyones vote.
Also, due to Sweden and UK aligning our weapons purchases (See UK Archer deal), this would further improve commonality between us. We also share a lot of weapons manufacturing companies with BAE and SAAB both having factories in both countries.
Unless the generals sabotage things, we believe our politicians will agree with us meagre colonels.
I here feel that I need to repeat myself, the UKian offer won on being both PHAT and THICC.

Ukraine
I should here point out that all of the tanks offered are way way better than the Soviet crappola that the Russians run around in.
Each one can amply fulfill the 5:1 engagement criteria.
That is to be able to engage 5 T90s at the same time and be able to win.
Our tentative figure for the Challenger 3 is 40:1... and the 40 is the amount of 130 rounds you can cram inside of it.
The only thing that can whack it is a 152mm at a falling trajectory directly hitting the turret top.

Problem is that the Challenger 3 is not going to Ukraine... they get the Challenger 2, but with all the hang-on extra bits... it is still a blooming potent tank, the best that is coming to Ukraine."
 
Hardly anything recent about the war in Ukraine on twitter. Try any of the usual # or place names and barely anything pops up other than a tiny number of obvious pro-Russian or anti-western getting through, presumably because they are based in foreign countries where the restrictions can slip through, or because they aren't actually offering any info or disinfo.

If nothing else it seems to confirm there is a blackout and therefore most likely something happening or about to very, very soon.

The initial pushes are bound to be brutal as they are up against prepared defences and Russia might not have quality artillery, but they have a lot and a WW2 shell still kills people.
 
Lefty said:
Hardly anything recent about the war in Ukraine on twitter. Try any of the usual # or place names and barely anything pops up other than a tiny number of obvious pro-Russian or anti-western getting through, presumably because they are based in foreign countries where the restrictions can slip through, or because they aren't actually offering any info or disinfo.

If nothing else it seems to confirm there is a blackout and therefore most likely something happening or about to very, very soon.

The initial pushes are bound to be brutal as they are up against prepared defences and Russia might not have quality artillery, but they have a lot and a WW2 shell still kills people.
Click to expand...

The Ukrainians won't even communicate with their allies of what's going on and have gone to great lengths to keep OPSEC as tight as possible. But it has started and is ongoing, in various locations and not all at the same time. Our man knows more than he is allowed/prepared to share with even his closest mates. He's pretty sombre about it because, even when it's going well for Ukraine, it will be grim.
 
borolad259 said:
The Ukrainians won't even communicate with their allies of what's going on and have gone to great lengths to keep OPSEC as tight as possible. But it has started and is ongoing, in various locations and not all at the same time. Our man knows more than he is allowed/prepared to share with even his closest mates. He's pretty sombre about it because, even when it's going well for Ukraine, it will be grim.
Click to expand...

I just hope Ukraine has built up enough munitions to sustain the offensives. Virtually every offensive in modern history has eventually run into supply issues. Desert Storm the obvious exception.
 
Lefty said:
I just hope Ukraine has built up enough munitions to sustain the offensives. Virtually every offensive in modern history has eventually run into supply issues. Desert Storm the obvious exception.
Click to expand...

I think they have ben remarkably patient. Hopefully yeah.
 
Just reading elsewhere there could be a dozen or more dead. Apparently the cafe owned by the head of Wagner. Very brave lady who delivered the bomb, hope she’s managed to GTFOOD and pronto. I would urge caution in blaming the Uke‘s - as much as they would love to have pulled this off.
 
Some factual stuff about the now stalled Ukainian counter-offensive. Followed by some interesting takes on what is happening and might happen internally in Russia. He describes Strelkov as an onion ... he's more like one of those Russian dolls. Or a Scooby Doo masked villain.


"About a week ago the highly awaited Ukrainian spring offensive started.
Interestingly the hardest attacks of the offensive happened near Bakhmut on the northern and southern flanks.
Initially the Ukrainians made good headway on both sides pushing the Russians backwards and making the roads safe again.
Not that the roads ever was needed.
A couple of days ago the Russians complained openly about Ukraine supplying Bakhmut through tunnels from Chasiv Yar.
Probably some old mine tunnels, in the end Ukraine confirmed this.
It sort of explains why seemingly Ukraine was not that bothered with the roads being under fire control.

A day after the initial outwards pushes Ukraine attacked on the outer sides of the northern and southern flank, something that really cought the Russians with their pants down.
Among the liberated places was Siversk, the video of the tanks attacking a trench is on the other side of Siversk down towards Bakhmut.

Down in Vuhledar Ukraine attacked hard pushing the Russians back to the lines prior to the Russian offensive here.
At the Zhaporizhzhia line the Ukrainians continued to hammer at Robotyne and Polohyi and slowly advanced towards Tokmak.

Repeated attacks amphibeous attacks and bombardments forced the Russian forces to leave the Kinburn Spit, and renewed attacks happened across the Dnipro into Southern Kherson.

Most of this was done with the 25 Attack Brigade Units that has held the line during the winter, but with 18 new ones out of the 106 attack brigades that Ukraine has formed in Western Ukraine, and with many of them having been trained in the UK, Germany, Poland, Sweden, US, etcetera...
Yes... you read right, the number of new units are 106 heavy brigades, that is 26 divisions, 6 Army groups, or 3 full armies. In amount of troops it is north of 286 000 men and women.
Together with the Units that have held the line that is 450 000 soldiers, and then you have 650 000 border guards, logistics, etcetera troops...

So, right as the offensive got going 42 Attack Brigades was hammering the Russians with more arriving each day, and Russia was buckling under the onslaught already.

The Oncoming Storm
Then Winter came back with a vengeance, a decadal snowstorm hit the East and South and all offensive operations stopped.
As all that snow melts it will turn Ukraine back into mud, and to top that off, 9 out of the next 14 days it will rain...

For now the entire offensive is halted, for how long is anyones guess, but at least for the next 14 days and then some.
What we do know is that Ukraine will restart it as soon as possible, and that there is nothing on this green planet that Russia can do to stop them, there are no reserves, no reinforcements coming, no nothing.
Only old junk is arriving...
On the Ukrainian side it means two to four weeks of more material arriving, more time to blow stuff up with long range artillery and missiles... and a couple of more battle brigades forming.

Russia
Inside Russia Strelkov/Girkin has banded up officially with the other critical influencers and proclaimed that if the government falls, or Russia starts to fall apart, that they will take over.
They have also started to openly act against Prigozhin and the PMC Wagner.

This is a big change in rhetoric from them. Why this change has happened now is beyond anyones guess.
They have even published a sort of video manifesto that is spreading like a wildfire in Russia.
Basically it saying "Do not worry, we are here if things go to ****".
Strelkov has also openly now mentioned the threat from China.

Once more, why Strelkov et Al is getting away with these open attacks on the leadership is beyond anyones guess.
Yes, it is likely that they have support from within the Siloviki (Security Service tecnocrats), but it is unclear how far up the food chain this support goes.
What is apparent though is that both Naryshkin and Patrushev are more often openly talking.

I am starting to worry about us not figuring out what is happening until after the fact.
And when there is a risk that an almost messianic figure like Strelkov can take over Russia like a modern day Jesus Tzar...

So, what can we take away?
The surprising honesty of Strelkov.
Everything he has said has been factual truth as far as we know, or at worst what he perceives as the factual truth.
We have found not a single misconception or lie.
Yes, everything is angled in his direction, and he is not saying everything, but regardless of this.
He is making his entire spiel built upon being correct and truthful, and building a following that way.
Even if it is a spiel, it says quite a bit about his charactar I think.

So, if we look at what he has said about things outside of Russia.
What can we glean?
-Russia can't win a war against NATO.
-Russia will loose the current war, here he points out that it would take putting Russias economy on a complete war footing and conspripting all men to win.... he then went on and stated that this is to late, and that it would no longer give the victory to Russia.
-Using nuclear weapons would bring the end to Russia.
-NATO will not invade Russia.
-If Russia falls China will invade Russia.

Note how what he says relates to the movements of troops towards China, the lack of reinforcements in Ukraine...
I think the above is a signal to the West.
If I take over, help me get out of Ukraine, and I will slam the door in the face of China.
Then we can talk...
I think this might be it, after all he openly laughed at the idea of NATO attacking Russia.

But, I guess time will tell.

Economy
All Russian trade have now stopped, or is done at a loss.
The final nail in the coffin was China and India slaming their doors shut, and them sort of enforcing either openly, or behind the scenes, the same sanctions as the west.

Russia is thus forced to use their only remaining funds, The State Welfare Fund.
Touching that was previously seen as sacrilige.
When it is empty all retirement funds and child payments, as well as other social security payments, will stop.
Currently Russia is burning through 1.6 trillion roubles per month, and the 9 trillion strong fund will be empty mid June.
After that Russia will be forced to start printing money to cover payments.
Currently the rouble is falling at a rate of 10 percent per month against the USD and EUR.
That would increase substantially as soon as they start printing cash out of thin air.
Russians faced with loosing all their savings, and facing starvation as their pensions and so on turn into a fraction of what it is...
Then is when civil unrest will kick in.

An economy back at 1993 levels (Russias poorest moment), never ending burrials, ever increased oppression, starvation, systematic failures of industry, heating, etcetera... Constant bombings and fires of critical infrastructure...
By september or october there will either be revolts in the streets, or someone credible will step in, declare the war over, and promise better times ahead.
Someone with sad Russian eyes, with a dark Russian humour, someone seen as intelligent and intellectual, but at the same time strong, someone known to be honest and telling the truth, someone with a moustache and simple shirts.
Someone opposite of Putin and his ilk, someone like Strelkov.

Suddenly it will be allowed to debate the war and protest against it, and after a little while he will stop the current war.
He will offer NATO a detente by sending 90 percent of the Russian army into the Far East as goodwill gesture of good faith.
Trainload after trainload will then start moving East with trained soldiers, combat veterans, and all their equipment.
The door will slam shut infront of Xi...
A new nuclear deal will be made, where Russia moves their tactical nukes to the Far East, at least most of it.
In Hague the dockets will be filled with handed over Russian war criminals, and informally Strelkov himself will end up dead last of the cases... and will remain there as long as he play ball.
Sanctions will slowly be lifted...
Gas will freely be delivered to Ukraine together with raw materials to rebuild as part of restitution...

A decade into the future Oleg Ivanovich Rudinov will walk down the aisle of the Annunciation Cathedral and be Crowned Ivan II of All Russias to everyones surprise, well... except for those who listened to him.
Now, who the blast is Oleg Rudinov?
None other than Strelkov, it is his real name.
Turns out he was born in St Petersburg and not in Moscow as everyone believed.
But, being an onion, I suspect there may be more layers to peel away.
For now, the deepest layer we have found is named Oleg Rudinov."
 
I wouldn't go as far as to say the weather is a disaster, but that is a bad break for Ukraine having to pause. The Russians might have been close to breaking.
 
borolad259 said:
Some factual stuff about the now stalled Ukainian counter-offensive. Followed by some interesting takes on what is happening and might happen internally in Russia. He describes Strelkov as an onion ... he's more like one of those Russian dolls. Or a Scooby Doo masked villain.


"About a week ago the highly awaited Ukrainian spring offensive started.
Interestingly the hardest attacks of the offensive happened near Bakhmut on the northern and southern flanks.
Initially the Ukrainians made good headway on both sides pushing the Russians backwards and making the roads safe again.
Not that the roads ever was needed.
A couple of days ago the Russians complained openly about Ukraine supplying Bakhmut through tunnels from Chasiv Yar.
Probably some old mine tunnels, in the end Ukraine confirmed this.
It sort of explains why seemingly Ukraine was not that bothered with the roads being under fire control.

A day after the initial outwards pushes Ukraine attacked on the outer sides of the northern and southern flank, something that really cought the Russians with their pants down.
Among the liberated places was Siversk, the video of the tanks attacking a trench is on the other side of Siversk down towards Bakhmut.

Down in Vuhledar Ukraine attacked hard pushing the Russians back to the lines prior to the Russian offensive here.
At the Zhaporizhzhia line the Ukrainians continued to hammer at Robotyne and Polohyi and slowly advanced towards Tokmak.

Repeated attacks amphibeous attacks and bombardments forced the Russian forces to leave the Kinburn Spit, and renewed attacks happened across the Dnipro into Southern Kherson.

Most of this was done with the 25 Attack Brigade Units that has held the line during the winter, but with 18 new ones out of the 106 attack brigades that Ukraine has formed in Western Ukraine, and with many of them having been trained in the UK, Germany, Poland, Sweden, US, etcetera...
Yes... you read right, the number of new units are 106 heavy brigades, that is 26 divisions, 6 Army groups, or 3 full armies. In amount of troops it is north of 286 000 men and women.
Together with the Units that have held the line that is 450 000 soldiers, and then you have 650 000 border guards, logistics, etcetera troops...

So, right as the offensive got going 42 Attack Brigades was hammering the Russians with more arriving each day, and Russia was buckling under the onslaught already.

The Oncoming Storm
Then Winter came back with a vengeance, a decadal snowstorm hit the East and South and all offensive operations stopped.
As all that snow melts it will turn Ukraine back into mud, and to top that off, 9 out of the next 14 days it will rain...

For now the entire offensive is halted, for how long is anyones guess, but at least for the next 14 days and then some.
What we do know is that Ukraine will restart it as soon as possible, and that there is nothing on this green planet that Russia can do to stop them, there are no reserves, no reinforcements coming, no nothing.
Only old junk is arriving...
On the Ukrainian side it means two to four weeks of more material arriving, more time to blow stuff up with long range artillery and missiles... and a couple of more battle brigades forming.

Russia
Inside Russia Strelkov/Girkin has banded up officially with the other critical influencers and proclaimed that if the government falls, or Russia starts to fall apart, that they will take over.
They have also started to openly act against Prigozhin and the PMC Wagner.

This is a big change in rhetoric from them. Why this change has happened now is beyond anyones guess.
They have even published a sort of video manifesto that is spreading like a wildfire in Russia.
Basically it saying "Do not worry, we are here if things go to ****".
Strelkov has also openly now mentioned the threat from China.

Once more, why Strelkov et Al is getting away with these open attacks on the leadership is beyond anyones guess.
Yes, it is likely that they have support from within the Siloviki (Security Service tecnocrats), but it is unclear how far up the food chain this support goes.
What is apparent though is that both Naryshkin and Patrushev are more often openly talking.

I am starting to worry about us not figuring out what is happening until after the fact.
And when there is a risk that an almost messianic figure like Strelkov can take over Russia like a modern day Jesus Tzar...

So, what can we take away?
The surprising honesty of Strelkov.
Everything he has said has been factual truth as far as we know, or at worst what he perceives as the factual truth.
We have found not a single misconception or lie.
Yes, everything is angled in his direction, and he is not saying everything, but regardless of this.
He is making his entire spiel built upon being correct and truthful, and building a following that way.
Even if it is a spiel, it says quite a bit about his charactar I think.

So, if we look at what he has said about things outside of Russia.
What can we glean?
-Russia can't win a war against NATO.
-Russia will loose the current war, here he points out that it would take putting Russias economy on a complete war footing and conspripting all men to win.... he then went on and stated that this is to late, and that it would no longer give the victory to Russia.
-Using nuclear weapons would bring the end to Russia.
-NATO will not invade Russia.
-If Russia falls China will invade Russia.

Note how what he says relates to the movements of troops towards China, the lack of reinforcements in Ukraine...
I think the above is a signal to the West.
If I take over, help me get out of Ukraine, and I will slam the door in the face of China.
Then we can talk...
I think this might be it, after all he openly laughed at the idea of NATO attacking Russia.

But, I guess time will tell.

Economy
All Russian trade have now stopped, or is done at a loss.
The final nail in the coffin was China and India slaming their doors shut, and them sort of enforcing either openly, or behind the scenes, the same sanctions as the west.

Russia is thus forced to use their only remaining funds, The State Welfare Fund.
Touching that was previously seen as sacrilige.
When it is empty all retirement funds and child payments, as well as other social security payments, will stop.
Currently Russia is burning through 1.6 trillion roubles per month, and the 9 trillion strong fund will be empty mid June.
After that Russia will be forced to start printing money to cover payments.
Currently the rouble is falling at a rate of 10 percent per month against the USD and EUR.
That would increase substantially as soon as they start printing cash out of thin air.
Russians faced with loosing all their savings, and facing starvation as their pensions and so on turn into a fraction of what it is...
Then is when civil unrest will kick in.

An economy back at 1993 levels (Russias poorest moment), never ending burrials, ever increased oppression, starvation, systematic failures of industry, heating, etcetera... Constant bombings and fires of critical infrastructure...
By september or october there will either be revolts in the streets, or someone credible will step in, declare the war over, and promise better times ahead.
Someone with sad Russian eyes, with a dark Russian humour, someone seen as intelligent and intellectual, but at the same time strong, someone known to be honest and telling the truth, someone with a moustache and simple shirts.
Someone opposite of Putin and his ilk, someone like Strelkov.

Suddenly it will be allowed to debate the war and protest against it, and after a little while he will stop the current war.
He will offer NATO a detente by sending 90 percent of the Russian army into the Far East as goodwill gesture of good faith.
Trainload after trainload will then start moving East with trained soldiers, combat veterans, and all their equipment.
The door will slam shut infront of Xi...
A new nuclear deal will be made, where Russia moves their tactical nukes to the Far East, at least most of it.
In Hague the dockets will be filled with handed over Russian war criminals, and informally Strelkov himself will end up dead last of the cases... and will remain there as long as he play ball.
Sanctions will slowly be lifted...
Gas will freely be delivered to Ukraine together with raw materials to rebuild as part of restitution...

A decade into the future Oleg Ivanovich Rudinov will walk down the aisle of the Annunciation Cathedral and be Crowned Ivan II of All Russias to everyones surprise, well... except for those who listened to him.
Now, who the blast is Oleg Rudinov?
None other than Strelkov, it is his real name.
Turns out he was born in St Petersburg and not in Moscow as everyone believed.
But, being an onion, I suspect there may be more layers to peel away.
For now, the deepest layer we have found is named Oleg Rudinov."
Click to expand...
Strelkovs in his 50's and Rudinov is closer to 80 not sure he's got that right?
 

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Russia now saying there'll be a significant increase in hostilities given than Finland is joining NATO today.
 
My thoughts.

Artillery (in all forms) is the biggest killer followed, in this conflict, by mines. Mines and other defences are intended to slow attacks down, so that artillery can chew up the attacking force.

Given Russia has been taught a few hard lessons, surely it has improved it's intelligence and reconnaissance compared to the earlier part of the war, even if it is not to the Western backed Ukrainian standards? They are unlikely to be taken entirely by surprise again.

Which to me means this is going to be a matter of Ukraine drawing out, pinpointing and then taking out the Russian artillery batteries quickly, so that the mine clearing and obstacle clearing units can clear the way for the mechanised units to advance without being too exposed and taken out. This is not Normandy 44 where there was a vast production line churning out replacement equipment arriving on a daily basis.

It would surprise me if there are any large breakthroughs like Kharkiv and Kherson. I think it will be a hard slog unless Russia continues to be inept or units collapse en masse.

I know Russia so far has shown poor leadership, poor NCO's and poor tactics, but armies learn, soldiers learn because the incentive becomes existential. Morale is going to be key. Ukraine has it and extra motivation, but also it cannot sustain huge losses either or the generational demographic effect will render any victory Pyrrhic for Ukraine just as it already is for Russia. Will Russia break, or will they manage to inflict delays and losses?

Air superiority would normally be key, but neither side is going to have that.
 
Has there been any MSM publicity about Xi leaving Moscow early? I'd have thought it would have been a story Western press would have leapt on, but I can see nothing about it anywhere.
 
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