The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

I was taking to some american colleagues who are now concerned about the delta variant. We seem to be following the same path as India where the delta variant just seems to burn out quickly, for whatever reason.

It may be it just had a short shelf life. Let's hope. If not then we are in for a difficult winter.
I think India is different, largely in that they waaaaaaay under-reported their problem, like a few countries seem to have done. They could be 10x underreported. So whilst it may have burnt out in the cities, it's burnt out at very high levels. Easy to do with the poor recording, scrutiny, controls and a mass of people.

At least with us, when we mess up, we know to the Nth degree how big that mess was.

I don't think we've burnt out in full, I think it's just that cases got well above where they would have naturally went without the euro's etc. This is a "lull" to me, until removing restrictions bumps it to where it would have been, but I'd be made up if it just slid away.

We still need to know that there's no peak, coming in winter, so that's why they're basically trying to pull that peak forward, and the peak of the exit wave should still be in August, but who knows, that new peak we may not even break 50k cases again, that would be a result.
 
I think it’s because it’s so virulent: infect too many people and a virus runs out of steam. As insane as it sounds letting it flood in from India may long term have been a good strategy. Get the wave over with. We did that with beta in January. Our peak was before everyone else because it mutated here
I thought that may have been intentional, letting that in, as for modelling it would have made sense if you knew it was coming anyway and we had the most at risk double jabbed. That's a big, brave call though, and exceptionally risky.

Of course, they will never admit that it was a strategy. It may have just been fortunate "**** up" mind, as I don't think the government would put enough faith in the modellers and basically just admit they're going for burn out or herd immunity with Delta, and banking on Pfizer/ AZ, at a time when India was running out of firewood to cremate people.
 
I think India is different, largely in that they waaaaaaay under-reported their problem, like a few countries seem to have done. They could be 10x underreported. So whilst it may have burnt out in the cities, it's burnt out at very high levels. Easy to do with the poor recording, scrutiny, controls and a mass of people.

At least with us, when we mess up, we know to the Nth degree how big that mess was.

I don't think we've burnt out in full, I think it's just that cases got well above where they would have naturally went without the euro's etc. This is a "lull" to me, until removing restrictions bumps it to where it would have been, but I'd be made up if it just slid away.

We still need to know that there's no peak, coming in winter, so that's why they're basically trying to pull that peak forward, and the peak of the exit wave should still be in August, but who knows, that new peak we may not even break 50k cases again, that would be a result.
I wouldn't dismiss India as under reporting so readily. I know a lot of Indian folk as I work for Infosys and whilst we did have some of work with covid, not as many as you would expect. We also have a fully funded covid department which tracks covid around the world as we have our own rules around travel, and they never highlighted a systemic problem with under reporting.

I am sure it was under reported due to infrastructure issues but the general consensus from our covid team was that it was reported as accurately as it could be.

I hope its not a lull and we get down to low enough levels over summer to get us close to zero infections so we go into winter from a better base than last year and reduce the risk of a resiliant variant.
 
I wouldn't dismiss India as under reporting so readily. I know a lot of Indian folk as I work for Infosys and whilst we did have some of work with covid, not as many as you would expect. We also have a fully funded covid department which tracks covid around the world as we have our own rules around travel, and they never highlighted a systemic problem with under reporting.

I am sure it was under reported due to infrastructure issues but the general consensus from our covid team was that it was reported as accurately as it could be.

I hope its not a lull and we get down to low enough levels over summer to get us close to zero infections so we go into winter from a better base than last year and reduce the risk of a resiliant variant.
They've only reported 300 deaths per million in the whole pandemic, yet their scenes on TV were unlike anything else any of us have seen, and it was like that for nearly two months? I bet some places reported fairly well, for their standards, but I wouldn't compare that to ours, and certainly not the places off the radar and in poverty etc. Tough one though, but hopefully we get all the true numbers for most places one day, as we will need to learn better.

The thing is India is now reporting less deaths than Brazil (who are probably also under reporting), with 6 times the number of people, somethings not right there.

Anyway, I'm not one for conspiracy stuff, but hopefully, it all becomes clear what actually happened.
 
They've only reported 300 deaths per million in the whole pandemic,

The thing is India is now reporting less deaths than Brazil (who are probably also under reporting), with 6 times the number of people,
Excess deaths

... a lot of graphs!

But, re: Brasil, it isn't so behind with some data issues e.g. deaths. Excess deaths seem lower than here - although the UK is one of the worst of course.

Almost 90% of Brasilians live in cities. It is difficult to die without it being recorded.

Also a state like São Paulo (pop. 35m I think) can be at least compared with a low/mid ranking European country for services/data. As far as I can see from their local data, it is mainly bad, but still compares mostly OK with the UK.
 
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I thought that may have been intentional, letting that in, as for modelling it would have made sense if you knew it was coming anyway and we had the most at risk double jabbed. That's a big, brave call though, and exceptionally risky.

Of course, they will never admit that it was a strategy. It may have just been fortunate "**** up" mind, as I don't think the government would put enough faith in the modellers and basically just admit they're going for burn out or herd immunity with Delta, and banking on Pfizer/ AZ, at a time when India was running out of firewood to cremate people.
Yeah I definitely don’t think it was anything approaching strategy. It’s still seems a deadly mistake but, as time goes on, and delta spreads around the world, it seems less deadly, more helpful
 
Excess deaths

... a lot of graphs!

But, re: Brasil, it isn't so behind with some data issues e.g. deaths. Excess deaths seem lower than here - although the UK is one of the worst of course.

Almost 90% of Brasilians live in cities. It is difficult to die without it being recorded.

Also a state like São Paulo (pop. 35m I think) can be at least compared with a low/mid ranking European country for services/data. As far as I can see from their local data, it is mainly bad, but still compares mostly OK with the UK.
Thanks for that, not sure I've seen that (y)
Totally agreed that excess is the best to use, if their numbers are reliable of course, I'm just not sure how reliable some of these places are.

I couldn't see India or UK on that comparison list, but eventually found UK as Britain, and don't think I've ever seen us called that lol.
 
They've only reported 300 deaths per million in the whole pandemic, yet their scenes on TV were unlike anything else any of us have seen, and it was like that for nearly two months? I bet some places reported fairly well, for their standards, but I wouldn't compare that to ours, and certainly not the places off the radar and in poverty etc. Tough one though, but hopefully we get all the true numbers for most places one day, as we will need to learn better.

The thing is India is now reporting less deaths than Brazil (who are probably also under reporting), with 6 times the number of people, somethings not right there.

Anyway, I'm not one for conspiracy stuff, but hopefully, it all becomes clear what actually happened.
My Indian colleagues think, though I don't know the details, that deaths as shown on national tv was a misrepresentation.

The general consensus is that in the west we wouldn't show white folks piled up in a morgue, but are happy to sensationalize the pictures from India.

I have no idea whether this is true, it seems to have a ring about it. I mention it because it is an opinion from people on the ground, rather than news outlets.

If, as you think, India are deliberately under reporting, we will probably never find out either.
 
They've only reported 300 deaths per million in the whole pandemic, yet their scenes on TV were unlike anything else any of us have seen, and it was like that for nearly two months? I bet some places reported fairly well, for their standards, but I wouldn't compare that to ours, and certainly not the places off the radar and in poverty etc. Tough one though, but hopefully we get all the true numbers for most places one day, as we will need to learn better.

The thing is India is now reporting less deaths than Brazil (who are probably also under reporting), with 6 times the number of people, somethings not right there.

Anyway, I'm not one for conspiracy stuff, but hopefully, it all becomes clear what actually happened.
You are aware that some those videos shown during India's delta peak were actually from a chemical plant explosion years previously?

Why can't people on here actually ever accept good news regarding the pandemic without throwing loads of 'well it's this' or 'lets wait and see' comments afterwards.
 
As of 9am on 28 July, 5,770,928 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 27,734 (44,104 on corresponding day last week).

91 deaths were reported today (73 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,689,242 have had a first dose vaccination. 35,446 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 37,610,911 have had a second dose. 151,851 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 27,734 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 23,511
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 7.1% to 30,494 per day, following 9.1% decrease yesterday (and 7th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 36.1% lower than one week ago (from 30.8% lower yesterday) and 13.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 2.6% lower yesterday and 73.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 91 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 131 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 3.8% to 71.1 per day, following 7.9% increase yesterday (and 22nd increase in the past 25 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 36.1% higher than one week ago (from 40.4% higher yesterday) and 117.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 125.4% higher yesterday and 127.3% higher 7 days ago)
 
You are aware that some those videos shown during India's delta peak were actually from a chemical plant explosion years previously?

Why can't people on here actually ever accept good news regarding the pandemic without throwing loads of 'well it's this' or 'lets wait and see' comments afterwards.
No, to be honest, as I tend to get news from reliable sources, and would try and check what I was sharing/ commenting on.
I've quickly checked what you are on about though, and I'd not seen it, and definitely wouldn't have fallen for that. I was talking about videos shown/ shared by major networks, a lot of which had actual reporters stood next to what they're reporting on.

I can't accept good news where the basic maths do not work for the original or new news.
2/3 of 1.3bn have antibodies (according to India)
So, 850m, have antibodies (according to maths)
30m cases (according to India)
320m vaccinated (according to India)
500m have antibodies without infection or vaccine, how?
Their CFR is 1.4%, lower than ours, which is 2.3% and we didn't overwhelm healthcare, and have better healthcare, this doesn't add up either (would expect more deaths)
Seems like they've massive under-reported cases (maybe 10x), which again would be more deaths (a lot more)

This convo started as you said "There are people on Twitter who are genuinely upset that cases are falling.", which I've not seen one instance of, and I quoted your comment and you didn't reply back.

Most (that I think that are worth listening to) are trying to figure out why it was reduced (and are happy it has, as it means the modelled peak is likely to be lower), as this is the only way to understand where it could go next. Getting ecstatic about dropping cases is fine, everyone loves it, but at least try and offer an explanation why, and another explanation why the 19th (when it starts to impact) won't go back to where it was, or worse. Being realistic to risk is more responsible than denying risk is there or pretending it isn't.
 
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As of 9am on 29 July, 5,801,561 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 31,117 (39,906 on corresponding day last week).

85 deaths were reported today (84 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,733,115 have had a first dose vaccination. 43,873 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 37,782,252 have had a second dose. 171,341 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 31,117 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 27,734
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.1% to 29,238 per day, following 7.1% decrease yesterday (and 8th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 37.1% lower than one week ago (from 36.1% lower yesterday) and 21.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 13.2% lower yesterday and 64.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 85 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 91 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.2% to 71.3 per day, following 3.8% increase yesterday (and 23rd increase in the past 26 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 28.9% higher than one week ago (from 36.1% higher yesterday) and 94.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 117.5% higher yesterday and 122.4% higher 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 30 July, 5,830,774 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 29,622 (36,389 on corresponding day last week).

68 deaths were reported today (64 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,775,525 have had a first dose vaccination. 42,410 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 3,962,407 have had a second dose. 180,155 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 29,622 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 31,117
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.3% to 28,272 per day, following 4.1% decrease yesterday (and 9th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 36.1% lower than one week ago (from 37.1% lower yesterday) and 28.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 21.8% lower yesterday and 50.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 68 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 85 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 0.8% to 71.9 per day, following 0.2% increase yesterday (and 24th increase in the past 27 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 25.1% higher than one week ago (from 28.9% higher yesterday) and 81.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 94.2% higher yesterday and 128.4% higher 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 31 July, 5,856,528 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 26,144 (31,795 on corresponding day last week).

71 deaths were reported today (86 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,811,298 have had a first dose vaccination. 35,773 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 38,126,702 have had a second dose. 164,295 second dose vaccinations today
 
As of 9am on 1 August, 5,880,667 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 24,470 (29,173 on corresponding day last week).

65 deaths were reported today (28 on corresponding day last week).

153,342 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 16 July).

46,851,145 have had a first dose vaccination. 38,858 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 38,345,841 have had a second dose. 212,159 second dose vaccinations today
 
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