The 9am figures not disclosed yet?
- Thread starter bear66
- Start date
bear66
Well-known member
Someone put up a figure for 'epidemic' in the UK by an Oxford scientist a few weeks ago that suggested it wasn't an epidemic below 120,000 current cases but I couldn't find another link to confirm if that was the generally accepted figure.
The level is low at 1 in 3400 having it at any one time but the ONS report shows the incidence to have leveled out or sightly increasing in most parts of the UK.
SmallTown
Well-known member
No actual figure but it's defined as: "an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people"
12 million, in the scheme of the world isn't THAT large but it does seem a massive figure.
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Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• 642 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 630
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.7% to 556 per day, following 4.9% decrease yesterday (and 7 consecutive daily decreases)
• 7-day average for new cases is 31.8% lower than one week ago (from 38.8% lower yesterday) and 47.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 49.5% lower yesterday and 37.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 85 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 126 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.7% to 87 per day, following 7.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 20.5% lower than one week ago (from 25.8% lower yesterday) and 27.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 25.3% lower yesterday and 24.2% lower 7 days ago)
• 642 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 630
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.7% to 556 per day, following 4.9% decrease yesterday (and 7 consecutive daily decreases)
• 7-day average for new cases is 31.8% lower than one week ago (from 38.8% lower yesterday) and 47.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 49.5% lower yesterday and 37.6% lower 7 days ago)
• 85 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 126 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 0.7% to 87 per day, following 7.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 20.5% lower than one week ago (from 25.8% lower yesterday) and 27.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 25.3% lower yesterday and 24.2% lower 7 days ago)
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
The increase is inline with the pubs opening, be interesting to see the next 3/4 days data
SmallTown
Well-known member
wouldn't it be a bit soon for that? This thing seems to have a long incubation period. wouldn't expect the pub death to start for a good month yet.
bear66
Well-known member
The latest ONS data suggested levelling out of infections over the last three weeks prior to 5 July, which does precede pubs opening.
Randy
Well-known member
Ssshhhh.
Doesn't fit the narrative.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Ah thanks, they cases are being detected pretty quick then. I really hope it doesn't translate to more deaths in a months time.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Some people have a long incubation period. Symptoms can show after 4/5 days. If the pubs have caused an increase you should see the rise continue as people start showing symptoms with longer incubation periods
I’m not saying the pubs caused the rise just saying it’s in line with pubs opening and that’s why I stated the next 3/4 days info will be interesting
hewielewie
Well-known member
Don't look at the numbers on the day, look at the 7 day average, which is down.
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
Symptoms don't always occur, the virus can still be passed on without them.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I wouldn’t be overly concerned with a relatively small rise in infections at this point. You will always get some fluctuation, but the general trend is downwards.
If it continues to rise over several days, and particularly if those increases begin to speed up, then that would be a cause for concern.
Randy
Well-known member
First time since before the 'lockdown' that the 7 day average is below 80.
newusername
Well-known member
Back to pre-lockdown figures.
For a comparative day of the week on Thursday 19th March there were 643 positive tests & 41 (hospital) deaths.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
In the terms of the pandemic (in case smalltown loses his mind) the figures today are really positive.
Seems like it’s burning out here, who knows maybe T cells have played a significant part in here immunity
I don’t get why there is second waves spikes everywhere else but not here, maybe herd immunity worked, maybe the most vulnerable are more savvy than say America
Seems like it’s burning out here, who knows maybe T cells have played a significant part in here immunity
I don’t get why there is second waves spikes everywhere else but not here, maybe herd immunity worked, maybe the most vulnerable are more savvy than say America
Billy Horner
Well-known member
Today's headline analysis:
• 512 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 642
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.8% to 551 per day, following 1.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 26.4% lower than one week ago (from 31.8% lower yesterday) and 45.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 49.7% lower yesterday and 41.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 48 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 85 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 14.6% to 74 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday (and 8th decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 27.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.5% lower yesterday) and 38.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.0% lower yesterday and 26.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 512 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 642
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.8% to 551 per day, following 1.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 26.4% lower than one week ago (from 31.8% lower yesterday) and 45.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 49.7% lower yesterday and 41.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 48 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, down from 85 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 14.6% to 74 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday (and 8th decrease in the past 9 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 27.7% lower than one week ago (from 20.5% lower yesterday) and 38.5% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.0% lower yesterday and 26.7% lower 7 days ago)
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I think Fauci has suggested that many states opened up whilst the infection levels were still growing in their localities. That would be a significant difference from our current position (although, we probably have to wait another 2/3 weeks to know for sure).
My concern about reopening the economy (which is the right thing to do) in the absence of a comprehensive test and trace system (which isn't), would be less around a sudden second wave, but more about having a certain level of virus circulating around the population in readiness for the cold and flu season come the autumn.
SmallTown
Well-known member
There isn't second wave spikes because the second wave hasn't started yet. Let's hope it never does but we are still in the first wave. The second wave is more likely to be this winter. What we are witnessing at the moment is a long and deadly tail.