The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 528 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 383
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 3.6%, following 6.4% decrease yesterday (and 27th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 38.0% lower than one week ago (from 39.3% lower yesterday) and 52.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 51.7% lower yesterday and 42.7% lower 7 days ago)
• 324 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 111 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings increases by 11.3%, following 0.6% decrease yesterday (and 4 consecutive daily decreases)
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 9.9% higher than one week ago (from 20.4% lower yesterday and the first rise in this metric for 45 days) and 29.2% lower than two weeks ago (from 38.3% lower yesterday and 47.7% lower 7 days ago)
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Thanks again for this

The death rate is barely dropping at all. Shows how utterly insane it is to lift lockdown restrictions
 
Some observations.

Whilst the increase in the 7-day average for new deaths today can be explained by last week's bank holiday, it is also clear that in recent days the fall in numbers for new deaths in all settings has stalled. The fact that the 7-day average is higher than one week ago is worrying as is the fact that the rate of decline has halved in a fortnight.

In addition, having not published the number for deaths in hospitals yesterday, the government did so today. Whilst the numbers are significantly smaller than there were a few weeks ago, these too appear to have stalled. The 7-day average has actually increased for three of the past five days, with the other two days coinciding with weekend reporting.

Unclear if these are blips or new trends at this point, but extremely concerning.
 
Bear, Billy, do you folks know where I could find comparative death figures for causes of death other than covid-19? I want to taake a look at, for example suicides this year v the average for previous years.

Don't go looking for it, I did this last night and couldn't find what I wanted.
 
Laughing said:
Bear, Billy, do you folks know where I could find comparative death figures for causes of death other than covid-19? I want to taake a look at, for example suicides this year v the average for previous years.

Don't go looking for it, I did this last night and couldn't find what I wanted.
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Just had a quick look and could only find respiratory deaths (not Covid-19) and Covid-19.
Link
 
Thanks for looking Bear I was hoping tyou would have come across something in your stats gathering.
 
As of 9am on 3 June, there have been 4,786,219 tests, with 171,829 tests on 2 June.

279,856 people have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 2 June, of those tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, across all settings, 39,728 have died.

0.67% increase in positive tests today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 585 hospital reported infections in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 528
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections decreases by 4.6%, following 3.6% decrease yesterday (and 28th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new hospital reported infections is 38.6% lower than one week ago (from 38.0% lower yesterday) and 52.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 52.2% lower yesterday and 42.4% lower 7 days ago)
• 359 new deaths in all settings reported in 24-hour period, up from 324 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings decreases by 2.8%, following 11.3% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths in all settings is 3.8% higher than one week ago (from 9.9% higher yesterday and the second consecutive daily increase) and 27.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 29.2% lower yesterday and 43.5% lower 7 days ago)
 
Laughing said:
Bear, Billy, do you folks know where I could find comparative death figures for causes of death other than covid-19? I want to taake a look at, for example suicides this year v the average for previous years.

Don't go looking for it, I did this last night and couldn't find what I wanted.
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ONS don't routinely publish data on leading causes of death until around 15 months after the end of the calendar year in question. So, for example, in March this year they published the analysis for 2018.

However, as a response to the excess deaths caused by the Covid-19 crisis, they did publish an analysis three weeks ago of leading causes of death during April this year, compared with the 5-year average. This is available below (Section 4 of the data release):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...d19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020

You'll note that, with the exception of Covid-19 itself, they don't give you the actual number of deaths. Instead they use the Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), which is a way of comparing death rates with the age structure of the population, in order to make a like-for-like comparison (e.g. in an ageing population you would expect more deaths per 100,000 population and more deaths from age-related illnessed such as dementia, so the ASMR allows for this). Therefore, it gives you an idea of the scale of deaths by individual cause, but not the precise number.

The analysis only includes the top 10 leading causes of deaths during April 2020, which doesn't include suicides. As suicides have been the 12th leading cause of death for the whole population in recent years (although it is the main cause of death for those aged 20-34 years), it is difficult to read too much into that. However, it is probably reasonable to infer from the fact that it isn't listed in the leading causes for April, that the number of suicides didn't increase dramatically compared with the 5-year average.
 
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Billy Horner said:
ONS don't routinely publish data on leading causes of death until around 15 months after the end of the calendar year in question. So, for example, in March this year they published the analysis for 2018.

However, as a response to the excess deaths caused by the Covid-19 crisis, they did publish an analysis three weeks ago of leading causes of death during April this year, compared with the 5-year average. This is available below (Section 4 of the data release):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...d19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020

You'll note that, with the exception of Covid-19 itself, they don't give you the actual number of deaths. Instead they use the Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR), which is a way of comparing death rates with the age structure of the population, in order to make a like-for-like comparison (e.g. in an ageing population you would expect more deaths per 100,000 population and more deaths from age-related illnessed such as dementia, so the ASMR allows for this). Therefore, it gives you an idea of the scale of deaths by individual cause, but not the precise number.

The analysis only includes the top 10 leading causes of deaths during April 2020, which doesn't include suicides. As suicides have been the 12th leading cause of death for the whole population in recent years (although it is the main cause of death for those aged 20-34 years), it is difficult to read too much into that. However, it is probably reasonable to infer from the fact that it isn't listed in the leading causes for April, that the number of suicides didn't increase dramatically compared with the 5-year average.
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Cheers for this, I'll go and see if I can make sense of it.
 
Read the report Billy, thanks. I'll re-read it again after it has been digested some. One thing that leaps of the page is how many folks died of alzhiemers and dementia over and above what we would generally expect. Alvez has raised this on a few occasions and he is right.

What did surprise me is for other causes of death, they are largely in-line with the 5 year averages for the same causes. I know it is only a month of data, but I still find that surprising given the excess deaths over the norm for April. The question I am asking myself now is "Where and how have the 20 odd thousand additional deaths been caused by?"

I was hoping for some stats that would make things clearer for me, now I am more confused. As I said I will go back to them in a couple of hours. I find the break helps as your subconcious does some spade work whilst you watch youtube, or whatever.
 
359 new deaths from Covid-19 reported in past 24hrs. That's 35 more deaths than entire EU 27 countries combined.
 
Laughing said:
Read the report Billy, thanks. I'll re-read it again after it has been digested some. One thing that leaps of the page is how many folks died of alzhiemers and dementia over and above what we would generally expect. Alvez has raised this on a few occasions and he is right.

What did surprise me is for other causes of death, they are largely in-line with the 5 year averages for the same causes. I know it is only a month of data, but I still find that surprising given the excess deaths over the norm for April. The question I am asking myself now is "Where and how have the 20 odd thousand additional deaths been caused by?"

I was hoping for some stats that would make things clearer for me, now I am more confused. As I said I will go back to them in a couple of hours. I find the break helps as your subconcious does some spade work whilst you watch youtube, or whatever.
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I raised that exact point myself on one of the threads on here shortly after the ONS released those stats. To my mind, it is highly unlikely that twice the average number of people just happened to die from dementia in April.

What we do know about dementia, though, is that it mainly a disease of the elderly and those suffering from it often live in care homes. We also know that there was (and still is) an ongoing Covid-19 epidemic in care homes during April.

My view would be that it is most likely those deaths (above the average) are an under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths. I can see no other rational explanation for them.
 
I was thinking of 2 possible causes. Firstly as you say they were covid + but not tested. Secondly, it is possible that lockdown had a huge effect on people sufferring from the disease, ultimately causing their death. We will never know one way or the other.
 
Laughing said:
I was thinking of 2 possible causes. Firstly as you say they were covid + but not tested. Secondly, it is possible that lockdown had a huge effect on people sufferring from the disease, ultimately causing their death. We will never know one way or the other.
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I can't make head nor tail of any of these figures.Need Alvez or Randy to explain!
 
Laughing said:
I was thinking of 2 possible causes. Firstly as you say they were covid + but not tested. Secondly, it is possible that lockdown had a huge effect on people sufferring from the disease, ultimately causing their death. We will never know one way or the other.
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Yes, it's possible of course. I tend to take the view, however, that it is unlikely that lockdown itself would have such a dramatic short-term impact on dementia deaths.

Dementia tends to involve a long-term and gradual decline in cognative and bodily function. Whilst a different daily routine obviously could have a detrimental impact, I would be surprised if that would result in such a significant spike in mortality rates over the course of 4-6 weeks. I'm not medically qualified though, so it will be interesting to hear the views of health professionals once more robust data is available.
 
Billy Horner said:
Yes, it's possible of course. I tend to take the view, however, that it is unlikely that lockdown itself would have such a dramatic short-term impact on dementia deaths.

Dementia tends to involve a long-term and gradual decline in cognative and bodily function. Whilst a different daily routine obviously could have a detrimental impact, I would be surprised if that would result in such a significant spike in mortality rates over the course of 4-6 weeks. I'm not medically qualified though, so it will be interesting to hear the views of health professionals once more robust data is available.
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You are right but you will also be surprised at how quickly someone with dementia can get worse.
 
Dementia has been listed as one of the leading comorbidities of covid 19. I should imagine that's just down to them both primarily affecting old people, rather than say diabetes or obesity where its the nature of the disease when combined with the effects of covid that lead to a high mortality rate.
 
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