The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Andy_W said:
Big turning point over the last month, which I hope some of you have not missed.

Cases in kids look to be burning out like a few reputable guys/modellers (Andrew Lilico and James ward) on twitter have been predicting for a couple of weeks, and this has been the key driver for all other cases since the schools reopened. This is naturally having a knock-on effect on the other age groups, like Oliver Johnsonson's old peeing in the swimming pool analogy mentioned a while back.

The movements can be seen in advance in the case ratios:

James Ward:

View attachment 26725

Oliver Johnson:
View attachment 26726

These changes in case ratios were happening before the half-term less testing/fewer contacts, which most have (probably wrongly) assumed is the reason. The same guys mentioned above have clarified this out over the last week, so it's probably the kids vaccines, additional immunity through lots of new infections and speed up of boosters for the over 50's which has tipped us over the current required HIT, which is quickly stopping the increases and now driving it down. But the half-term effect and timing of it is going to be extremely helpful also, and should really, really help further put the brakes on things quickly.

Some think the endemic level for a fully open/ de-restricted UK is ~20k cases, changing with seasonality, so if this peak continues to retract then that could be just about it for our pandemic, and then we're pretty much firmly in the endemic phase until the ROW catches up on vaccination/ infection.

People saying we're needing lockdowns (like indy sage), or those scaremongering that there are lockdowns coming (anti vaxers/ deniers etc) are just poorly reading the stats, assuming what happened previously with sustained acceleration can happen again, and what was needed previous will get enforced again. It pretty much can't and won't, there's now just too much immunity largely through vax and some infection of >18's and largely infection/ some vax of <18's.

It's not done yet, not by a long shot, but the way this last month has transpired has given good signs that we're just not going to get anywhere near previous case peaks again, and no way would those previous case peaks lead to similar numbers of hospitalisations/ deaths again.

I still think masks and ventilation in settings where people have no choice but to go/ use (shops/ public transport) are a good idea, but don't see any reason to impose more restrictions than that, and don't see those happening again.
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Didn't have you down as a Lilico fan Andy.
 
Laughing said:
A couple of points. I don't think a thousand people dying every week is any where near acceptable.

Our NHS can't cope with flu and covid. In 2019 which was a bad flu year we ran out of beds without covid.

I seem to recall last year at about this time there was a slight plateau of cases as there was in the summer.
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Oh it's not, certainly not, but there's not really any other way now we've taken all the measures we can, if we want to keep the economy ticking over etc.

Don't forget though, covid is still outcompeting flu and others, so some of that 1,000 would have been attributable elsewhere, we're at 1,500 excess deaths for the week, based on 40k cases and fewer boosters. Dropping that to 20k, with more boosters could wipe that excess out.

The big change to this year is that the majority of cases are in kids, rather than last year when there were no vaccines and vast majority of cases we're >18's, and the older people had zero protection. Different stats and measures for different times/ protection.
 
Randy said:
Didn't have you down as a Lilico fan Andy.
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I don't agree with a lot of his stance on politics and protection measures, and James Ward sums up my thoughts in most of his replies to lilico about those aspects, almost exactly. But they're both quite well-aligned modelling wise and there's a mutual respect there, and I can't fault his (or James Wards) modelling, especially recently, he's clearly a clever bloke. Those two get it right much more than most, and they're both transparent on what they're doing and how they think what they do, which is great.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 40,954 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 36,567
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.9% to 44,702 per day, following 3.8% decrease yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 0.4% lower than one week ago (from 2.2% higher yesterday) and 18.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 21.3% higher yesterday and 31.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 263 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 38 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 4.2% to 140.3 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 7.8% higher than one week ago (from 8.4% higher yesterday) and 23.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 20.8% higher yesterday and 17.2% higher 7 days ago)
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 40,954 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 36,567
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 0.9% to 44,702 per day, following 3.8% decrease yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 0.4% lower than one week ago (from 2.2% higher yesterday) and 18.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 21.3% higher yesterday and 31.8% higher 7 days ago)
• 263 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 38 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 4.2% to 140.3 per day, following 0.7% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 7.8% higher than one week ago (from 8.4% higher yesterday) and 23.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 20.8% higher yesterday and 17.2% higher 7 days ago)
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Down about 10% from the same day last week, just need to keep this going, and once 20-23rd clears out of the averages, things should start looking better.

Case ratio's still very good:
1635263597960.png
 
Andy_W said:
Oh it's not, certainly not, but there's not really any other way now we've taken all the measures we can, if we want to keep the economy ticking over etc.

Don't forget though, covid is still outcompeting flu and others, so some of that 1,000 would have been attributable elsewhere, we're at 1,500 excess deaths for the week, based on 40k cases and fewer boosters. Dropping that to 20k, with more boosters could wipe that excess out.

The big change to this year is that the majority of cases are in kids, rather than last year when there were no vaccines and vast majority of cases we're >18's, and the older people had zero protection. Different stats and measures for different times/ protection.
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We can certainly hope, of course. Lots of virus' do just burn themselved out and we do have a vaccine to help with that.

I am one of those who would like to see a bit more done.

My daughters school have mandated masks and all classrooms are ventilated, which the kids complain about.

Work from home where you can and masks on transport and shops is fairly painless and unobtrusive unless your an inner city coffee shop.

Hopefully the models you discuss prove to be accurate.
 
Laughing said:
I am one of those who would like to see a bit more done.

My daughters school have mandated masks and all classrooms are ventilated, which the kids complain about.

Work from home where you can and masks on transport and shops is fairly painless and unobtrusive unless your an inner city coffee shop.
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Yeah, I'm sort of all for that, I think, measures which do no harm but still have gains.

The only issue is there's potential in the models where protection measures now, causing more of a reduction now, could mean a bigger bump at a time when we can handle it less. Like a pendulum effect. This is more to do with waning and seasonality, among other factors, these are a big "if" mind.

I think a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush in most situations, and I'm more thinking we should take an additional reduction whilst we can get it, but the guys who I've most faith in are less convinced in that. They think half term is going to be a big help cutting the legs off this.

Some of the thought is that we're better just sticking with the gradual vaccine/ infection decline, which keeps the wave lowest over Christmas, but the timing of that is difficult..

Lots of variables though.
 
Poor Sun readers must be devastated at today's Grim Tally having been told only yesterday that it was a record low and we are making great progress thanks to their campaign for booster vaccinations.

On a serious note I hope their pennies have dropped and they are now starting to see Boris's Sch!tt Show Govt for what it really is.
 
Randy said:
That's also accounting for the Welsh days dump today
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Yeah, I don't think that was in the figures from two days ago, so thought that might be in there.

The case and case ratio charts look promising, and the 7-day avs should be better once last weeks high numbers drop out.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 43,941 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 40,954
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.7% to 43,959 per day, following 0.9% decrease yesterday (and 4th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 4.0% lower than one week ago (from 0.4% lower yesterday) and 14.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 18.1% higher yesterday and 32.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 207 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 263 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 2.9% to 144.3 per day, following 4.2% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.9% higher than one week ago (from 7.8% higher yesterday) and 28.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 23.5% higher yesterday and 23.9% higher 7 days ago)

Highest 7-day average for new deaths since 15th March.
First instance of two consecutive days with more than 200 reported deaths since 5th March.
 
Current fall in new cases is skewed by school half term, where the majority of kids are not being tested. Expect a big jump in daily cases next week.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 39,842 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 43,941
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 4.0% to 42,221 per day, following 1.7% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new cases is 9.8% lower than one week ago (from 4.0% lower yesterday) and 8.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 14.9% higher yesterday and 33.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 165 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 207 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 5.0% to 151.4 per day, following 2.9% increase yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 16.2% higher than one week ago (from 5.9% higher yesterday) and 28.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 28.2% higher yesterday and 20.8% higher 7 days ago)
 
BiggEggo said:
Current fall in new cases is skewed by school half term, where the majority of kids are not being tested. Expect a big jump in daily cases next week.
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It will be skewed a little (further welcome reduction) but the case ratio had stopped rapidly increasing in <20's a week before the earliest half term started, two weeks before MBC (and the most common used half term). As soon as that stops increasing, it quickly swings the other way, until it has another reason to increase again. Previous increases were due to unvaccinated/ uninfected kids and waning immunity of the elderly. There were plenty of people pointing out this was happening three weeks ago.

1635445584651.png

This initial levelling and swing down is likely caused by kids being rapidly infected (and other ages), kids being vaccinated, boosters in the elderly, and major gains in HIT (from all that), for the groups where the major rises were. For every kid that got covid, there's another who got it who didn't get tested, another who got vaccinated and and elderly dude who got his booster, and all of them now have effective strong immunity.

1635447228833.png


Since the beginning of October, up to 26 Oct we had vaccinated 20% of the 12-15's, which is by far the biggest group of new cases. By the end of half term it will be another 10-15% on top of that, also there will be more infections on the way down, and more boosters. We're going through a massive targerted increase in antibodies, for those who had no protection, or protection which was waning.

1635447015734.png

Testing isn't down much, but has been trending down since the end of September anyway.
1635447666456.png

I don't think there will be a big jump (we won't see 50k again), I reckon we're going to almost halve from a 47k average which was increasing, down to about 25k. Then it will level off, and probably continue to fall till it gets to a level we're stuck with (maybe around 10-20k).

As every day goes on protection increases, and the pre half term increase in protection was enough to halt the case ratio where it was and turn it, a lot has changed in a month and it's goign to change even more over the next two weeks.
 
Those cases would be halved if Kier Starmer stopped testing positive every time he sticks a cotton bud down his throat.

😎

Andy, why would vaccinations in kids have any effect on the case rate when it's commonly known now that vaccination doesn't prevent transmission or stop people from catching the virus and testing positive? Seems to only stop the majority from getting really poorly or dying.
 
Nobby_Barnes said:
Are kids really getting tested ? It's only lateral flow and most aren't doing it....
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It doesn't actually matter that much, whether they are or not, as the levels of PCR testing have been gradually reducing anyway since early September, which means testing in adults is going down no matter what. Obviously, if the kids have symptoms, I would hope their parents don't let them visit granny!

It may even be a good thing (or not a necessarily bad thing) that they haven't been doing LFT's (or not reporting LFT's) in a weird way, as it will mean the schools get to HIT quicker, it was unsustainable the rate it was at, it will burn out through infection/ vaccines extremely quickly, and there's not been a massive spill over into the other age groups.
 
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Randy said:
Those cases would be halved if Kier Starmer stopped testing positive every time he sticks a cotton bud down his throat.

😎

Andy, why would vaccinations in kids have any effect on the case rate when it's commonly known now that vaccination doesn't prevent transmission or stop people from catching the virus and testing positive? Seems to only stop the majority from getting really poorly or dying.
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It's commonly known that there are numerous studies showing vaccination reduces infection, reduces infection time, and reduces transmission. It's also common sense that this would be the case. A virus isn't going to replicate and spread as well in someone who has a massive army of antibodies waiting for it (from recent infection or vaccination), compared to some dude with zero protection who is statistically at greater risk, and with a longer infectious/ transmission time.

Pfizer is seemingly the better of the protection, which is good, as that's what the kids are getting.

www.newscientist.com

How much less likely are you to spread covid-19 if you're vaccinated?

Vaccination still greatly reduces the risk of infecting others despite the arrival of the delta variant, recent studies show
www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
 
Randy said:
Those cases would be halved if Kier Starmer stopped testing positive every time he sticks a cotton bud down his throat.

😎

Andy, why would vaccinations in kids have any effect on the case rate when it's commonly known now that vaccination doesn't prevent transmission or stop people from catching the virus and testing positive? Seems to only stop the majority from getting really poorly or dying.
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It slows down both infection and transmission Randy. We know this
 
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