The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 49,139 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 43,738
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.0% to 45,799 per day, following 1.7% increase yesterday (and 15th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 19.7% higher than one week ago (from 18.6% higher yesterday) and 32.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 31.8% higher yesterday and 8.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 179 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 223 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 4.7% to 136.3 per day, following 4.8% increase yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 21.1% higher than one week ago (from 14.6% higher yesterday) and 23.9% higher than two weeks ago (from 17.2% higher yesterday and 12.8% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 52,009 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 49,139
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.2% to 46,791 per day, following 2.0% increase yesterday (and 16th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 20.3% higher than one week ago (from 19.7% higher yesterday) and 33.2% higher than two weeks ago (from 32.7% higher yesterday and 10.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 115 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 179 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 4.4% to 130.3 per day, following 4.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.8% higher than one week ago (from 21.1% higher yesterday) and 20.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 23.9% higher yesterday and 4.2% lower 7 days ago)

First instance of more than 50,000 reported new cases since 17th July.

I'm not convinced that the reported decrease in the 7-day average for new deaths is genuine. The total number of reported deaths in England in the last 24 hours is supposedly 66, which would make it the lowest weekday number since the end of July. This is completely against the current trend and compares with the number of reported hospital deaths in England in the last 24 hours, which is 88.
 
There is quite a bit wrong with those tweets Randy. They, generally don't stack up very well and he uses the metric that suites his belief, for example excess deaths rather than covid deaths.

It's not to say he is wrong, I think he is, but the "myths" and his reasoning is flawed.
 
Randy said:
Only posted as it made mainstream news so thought it was worth a discussion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1451166953931001856
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I know Randy, you never said you supported the view point and you're right it was an interesting read but littered with hand picked statistics to fit his view.

As I say some of it may be true, for example the infecting rates being a factor of tests completed. This is true but badly used to support his point.
 
Had a quick read of some of it. Depressing to note that even Doctors do not understand how to interpret statistics. Here he talks about the number of positive tests for COVID.
This is based on case rates and ignores fact that UK does a LOT more testing - you need to compare positivity rate where UK is about average.
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"Positivity rate" is, as I understand it, the percentage of tests taken that are positive. So if ten Brits take a test, five of them are positive and that is the same in France. So my point would be, why would you think it would vary? People go for a test either because they have been in contact with someone who has tested positive or because they have shown some of the COVID symptoms. Why would the rate of positive tests vary significantly from one country to another (assuming that tests are free/cheap and easily accessible)? You would always expect the "positivity rate" to be roughly comparable.

I confess once I had got to another couple of examples of his flawed reasoning I stopped. It proves what I have always said, if you go on the internet you can always find evidence to support your prejudice if you look for it and indeed the algorithms of social media sites are liable to feed you more supporting information, without realising it you are down the rabbit hole with a gaggle of conspiracy theorists whispering in your ears.
 
Muttley said:
Had a quick read of some of it. Depressing to note that even Doctors do not understand how to interpret statistics. Here he talks about the number of positive tests for COVID.

"Positivity rate" is, as I understand it, the percentage of tests taken that are positive. So if ten Brits take a test, five of them are positive and that is the same in France. So my point would be, why would you think it would vary? People go for a test either because they have been in contact with someone who has tested positive or because they have shown some of the COVID symptoms. Why would the rate of positive tests vary significantly from one country to another (assuming that tests are free/cheap and easily accessible)? You would always expect the "positivity rate" to be roughly comparable.

I confess once I had got to another couple of examples of his flawed reasoning I stopped. It proves what I have always said, if you go on the internet you can always find evidence to support your prejudice if you look for it and indeed the algorithms of social media sites are liable to feed you more supporting information, without realising it you are down the rabbit hole with a gaggle of conspiracy theorists whispering in your ears.
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I am not sure he is a conspiracy theorist, I think he just doesn't understand stats Mutley.

I would imagine you can be a very effective doctor and have no maths above basic arithmetic
 
Laughing said:
I am not sure he is a conspiracy theorist, I think he just doesn't understand stats Mutley.

I would imagine you can be a very effective doctor and have no maths above basic arithmetic
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Screenshot_20211022-160118.png


Hardly the conspiracy theory type.
As for Muttley's comments about the rabbit hole. This doctor originally started popping up on my feed because of his tweets making people aware of the persecution of the muslims in China.
 
Randy said:
View attachment 26468


Hardly the conspiracy theory type.
As for Muttley's comments about the rabbit hole. This doctor originally started popping up on my feed because of his tweets making people aware of the persecution of the muslims in China.
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It's interesting that he works in research, almost all medical research is statistically based because you're not allowed to infect people willy nilly to prove your point. Damn those do-gooders.

I would still argue the way he has interpreted the stats is to confim his viewpoint, but I may be wrong.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 49,298 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 52,009
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.3% to 47,415 per day, following 2.2% increase yesterday (and 17th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 18.1% higher than one week ago (from 20.3% higher yesterday) and 34.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 33.2% higher yesterday and 14.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 180 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 115 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 3.8% to 135.3 per day, following 4.4% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 15.8% higher than one week ago (from 10.8% higher yesterday) and 21.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 20.8% higher yesterday and 1.5% higher 7 days ago)

We've now had in excess of 40,000 new cases in each of the past 10 days. The last time that happened was 16th January.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 36,567 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 39,962
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 3.8% to 45,100 per day, following 1.6% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.2% higher than one week ago (from 9.4% higher yesterday) and 21.3% higher than two weeks ago (from 28.7% higher yesterday and 29.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 38 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 72 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 0.7% to 134.6 per day, following 1.6% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 8.4% higher than one week ago (from 11.4% higher yesterday) and 20.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 20.9% higher yesterday and 11.7% higher 7 days ago)
 
Abel Tasman said:
If anybody is interested this is NZ ‘S new Covid action traffic light system for moving forward once we hit 90% vax rates.

View attachment 26721
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That’s is very interesting Abel thanks.

Ive just seen an item on local London news this evening about an actress in the stage show Frozen who has tweeted

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452288425437110283

The public was asked for their views and it’s fair to say it has divided opinion. A number say because they have been double vaxxed there is no need to wear one. And of course our laws say you don’t have to. I see there in NZ you have gone further to ensure people are protected and in your “amber” scenario you would need to wear a mask in a theatre double vaxxer or not. This quite apart from not being able to go to a theater with more than 100 people unless you are double vaxxed. I am in total agreement with that.
 
Big turning point over the last month, which I hope some of you have not missed.

Cases in kids look to be burning out like a few reputable guys/modellers (Andrew Lilico and James ward) on twitter have been predicting for a couple of weeks, and this has been the key driver for all other cases since the schools reopened. This is naturally having a knock-on effect on the other age groups, like Oliver Johnsonson's old peeing in the swimming pool analogy mentioned a while back.

The movements can be seen in advance in the case ratios:

James Ward:

1635195030063.png

Oliver Johnson:
1635195076044.png

These changes in case ratios were happening before the half-term less testing/fewer contacts, which most have (probably wrongly) assumed is the reason. The same guys mentioned above have clarified this out over the last week, so it's probably the kids vaccines, additional immunity through lots of new infections and speed up of boosters for the over 50's which has tipped us over the current required HIT, which is quickly stopping the increases and now driving it down. But the half-term effect and timing of it is going to be extremely helpful also, and should really, really help further put the brakes on things quickly.

Some think the endemic level for a fully open/ de-restricted UK is ~20k cases, changing with seasonality, so if this peak continues to retract then that could be just about it for our pandemic, and then we're pretty much firmly in the endemic phase until the ROW catches up on vaccination/ infection.

People saying we're needing lockdowns (like indy sage), or those scaremongering that there are lockdowns coming (anti vaxers/ deniers etc) are just poorly reading the stats, assuming what happened previously with sustained acceleration can happen again, and what was needed previous will get enforced again. It pretty much can't and won't, there's now just too much immunity largely through vax and some infection of >18's and largely infection/ some vax of <18's.

It's not done yet, not by a long shot, but the way this last month has transpired has given good signs that we're just not going to get anywhere near previous case peaks again, and no way would those previous case peaks lead to similar numbers of hospitalisations/ deaths again.

I still think masks and ventilation in settings where people have no choice but to go/ use (shops/ public transport) are a good idea, but don't see any reason to impose more restrictions than that, and don't see those happening again.
 
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I think we are no where near declaring covid as endemic, unfortunately.

I hope that andy's modellers are right and we have reached a level of infection where the virus has no where to go. Not sure I believe that.

A couple of points. I don't think a thousand people dying every week is any where near acceptable.

Our NHS can't cope with flu and covid. In 2019 which was a bad flu year we ran out of beds without covid.

I seem to recall last year at about this time there was a slight plateau of cases as there was in the summer.

The overall vulnerability rates in the uk are probably increasing because booster jabs are not being given as quickly as the first or second jabs at the start of the year.

Even ignoring the definition of endemic versus pandemic I don't think we are there yet.

Hope I am wrong though, obviously.
 
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