The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

mitch_at_merseyside said:
'The big question is will it lead to another lockdown?'

Why would there be? It has been proved the variant doesn't effect the vaccines, and those that have been hospitalised have been people who haven't been vaccinated. By the time June 14th comes around, which is when they expect to make a decision, we'll be looking at around 30 million people (fully vaccinated) and there is even more testing for this new variant. There was a story over 6 weeks ago about whether the country had already reached herd immunity, going by the number of vaccinations, positive cases that led to antibodies, by now you would expect there is herd immunity in the general population. If there is to be a lockdown then it should only apply to those areas where the variant is prevalent, it would be grossly unfair to put the rest of the country into another lockdown, and frankly I can't see the masses putting up with it.
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If there is herd immunity why are hospitalisations going up?
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 3,383 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 3,240
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.2% to 3,345 per day, following 4.7% increase yesterday (and 13th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 28.8% higher than one week ago (from 26.8% higher yesterday) and 50.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 41.2% higher yesterday and 18.3% higher 7 days ago)
• 1 new death within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 6 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 3.3% to 8 per day, following 1.7% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 45.0% higher from one week ago (from 42.9% higher yesterday) and 22.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 18.9% lower yesterday and 42.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 1 June, 4,490,438 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 3,165 (2,493 on corresponding day last week).

0 deaths were reported today (15 on corresponding day last week). First zero figure since start of epidemic.

152,068 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 14 May)

39,477,158 have had a first dose vaccination. 93,103 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 25,734,719 have had a second dose. 195,546 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 1 June, 4,490,438 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 3,165 (2,493 on corresponding day last week).

0 deaths were reported today (15 on corresponding day last week). First zero figure since start of epidemic.

152,068 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 14 May)

39,477,158 have had a first dose vaccination. 93,103 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 25,734,719 have had a second dose. 195,546 second dose vaccinations today
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ZERO deaths! Boooooom. Go science!!!
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 3,165 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 3,383
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.9% to 3,441 per day, following 4.2% increase yesterday (and 14th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 31.9% higher than one week ago (from 28.8% higher yesterday) and 55.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 50.7% higher yesterday and 14.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 0 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 1 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 25.9% to 6 per day, following 3.3% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.4% lower from one week ago (from 45.0% higher yesterday) and 30.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 22.7% lower yesterday and 44.2% lower 7 days ago)

Combination of bank holiday effect and relatively low numbers generally has probably contributed to the 0 reported deaths figure.
 
As of 9am on 2 June, 4,494,699 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 4,330 (3,180 on corresponding day last week).

12 deaths were reported today (9 on corresponding day last week).

152,183 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 21 May)

39,585,655 have had a first dose vaccination. 108,507 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 26,073,284 have had a second dose. 338,565 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 4,330 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 3,165
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.8% to 3,606 per day, following 2.9% increase yesterday (and 15th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 34.7% higher than one week ago (from 31.9% higher yesterday) and 58.8% higher than two weeks ago (from 55.6% higher yesterday and 16.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 12 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 0 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 7.0% to 7 per day, following 25.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 14.8% lower from one week ago (from 10.4% lower yesterday) and 14.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 30.6% lower yesterday and 22.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 3 June, 4,499,878 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 5,274 (3,542 on corresponding day last week).

18 deaths were reported today (10 on corresponding day last week).

152,183 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 21 May)

39,758,428 have had a first dose vaccination. 172,763 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 26,422,303 have had a second dose. 349,019 second dose vaccinations today.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 5,274 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 4,330
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 6.9% to 3,853 per day, following 4.8% increase yesterday (and 16th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 38.9% higher than one week ago (from 34.7% higher yesterday) and 67.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 58.8% higher yesterday and 20.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 18 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 12 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 17.4% to 8 per day, following 7.0% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.3% lower from one week ago (from 14.8% lower yesterday) and 8.0% lower than two weeks ago (from 14.8% lower yesterday and 16.2% lower 7 days ago)
 
As of 9am on 4 June, 4,506,018 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 6,238 (4,182 on corresponding day last week).

11 deaths were reported today (10 on corresponding day last week).

152,183 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 21 May)

39,949,694 have had a first dose vaccination. 191,266 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 26,799,994 have had a second dose. 377,641 second dose vaccinations today.
 
bear66 said:
As of 9am on 4 June, 4,506,018 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK.

Positive cases were 6,238 (4,182 on corresponding day last week).

11 deaths were reported today (10 on corresponding day last week).

152,183 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate (up to 21 May)

39,949,694 have had a first dose vaccination. 191,266 first dose vaccinations yesterday. 26,799,994 have had a second dose. 377,641 second dose vaccinations today.
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Hate to say this but cases look like they are fixing to ramp up for a new wave. I’m just praying it’s true the vaccines are reducing hospitalisations per case
 
SmallTown said:
Hate to say this but cases look like they are fixing to ramp up for a new wave. I’m just praying it’s true the vaccines are reducing hospitalisations per case
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I think it’s safe to say they are. If we equate an average of 10 deaths a day to 2000 cases per day (to allow the gap between cases and deaths), and amplify that up to 100k cases it would equal 500 deaths a day compared to the day 1200ish we had at the peak.

That’s with a significant number still to be vaccinated, but everyday we’re getting closer with extra people receiving their 2nd dose / developing some immunity from first, hopefully any 3rd wave would get no where near those figures!
 
SmallTown said:
Hate to say this but cases look like they are fixing to ramp up for a new wave. I’m just praying it’s true the vaccines are reducing hospitalisations per case
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Interesting take by one young family in Bristol suddenly being affected by covid . . . along with the rest of their school.
Link

Vaccines didn't stop transmission but the second jab may have reduced the worst effects.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 6,238 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 5,274
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 7.6% to 4,147 per day, following 6.9% increase yesterday (and 17th consecutive daily increase)
• 7-day average for new cases is 39.8% higher than one week ago (from 38.9% higher yesterday) and 73.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 67.5% higher yesterday and 31.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 11 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 18 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.9% to 8 per day, following 17.4% increase yesterday (and 9th increase in the past 11 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 5.2% lower from one week ago (from 5.3% lower yesterday) and 31.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 8.0% higher yesterday and 17.1% lower 7 days ago)
 
Jostler said:
I think it’s safe to say they are. If we equate an average of 10 deaths a day to 2000 cases per day (to allow the gap between cases and deaths), and amplify that up to 100k cases it would equal 500 deaths a day compared to the day 1200ish we had at the peak.

That’s with a significant number still to be vaccinated, but everyday we’re getting closer with extra people receiving their 2nd dose / developing some immunity from first, hopefully any 3rd wave would get no where near those figures!
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I would broadly agree with that analysis.

We currently have an average of 4,100 cases per day. The last time we were at that level (pre-vaccine rollout) was 22nd September last year, when the weekly and fortnightly % increases were also similar to today (i.e. we were on a similar upward curve).

At that time, we were averaging 23 deaths per day compared with 7.8 deaths per day at the moment, so we are now experiencing roughly one-third of the Case Fatality Rate that we were in the autumn. If you apply that to the 1,200 deaths per day at the peak in January, that would equate to approx. 400 per day instead.

Now, that's probably still higher than many people may be expecting given the efficacy of the vaccine. However, there are good reasons to believe that the third wave won't reach the same levels as the second wave.

Firstly, as you say, more and more people are receiving first and second jabs every day. The most recent deaths will have resulted from the situation as it was at least three weeks ago, and we have delivered another 3.6m first jabs and 7.1m second jabs since then.

And secondly, back in September we were moving towards winter with its propensity for respiratory illnesses and people spending more time indoors. Now, of course, we are heading towards the summer months which will, hopefully, be decent enough to encourage people to spend more time outdoors, where it is much harder to be infected with the virus.

Still a need for us to be cautious in our further relaxation of measures though.
 
Billy Horner said:
I would broadly agree with that analysis.

We currently have an average of 4,100 cases per day. The last time we were at that level (pre-vaccine rollout) was 22nd September last year, when the weekly and fortnightly % increases were also similar to today (i.e. we were on a similar upward curve).

At that time, we were averaging 23 deaths per day compared with 7.8 deaths per day at the moment, so we are now experiencing roughly one-third of the Case Fatality Rate that we were in the autumn. If you apply that to the 1,200 deaths per day at the peak in January, that would equate to approx. 400 per day instead.

Now, that's probably still higher than many people may be expecting given the efficacy of the vaccine. However, there are good reasons to believe that the third wave won't reach the same levels as the second wave.

Firstly, as you say, more and more people are receiving first and second jabs every day. The most recent deaths will have resulted from the situation as it was at least three weeks ago, and we have delivered another 3.6m first jabs and 7.1m second jabs since then.

And secondly, back in September we were moving towards winter with its propensity for respiratory illnesses and people spending more time indoors. Now, of course, we are heading towards the summer months which will, hopefully, be decent enough to encourage people to spend more time outdoors, where it is much harder to be infected with the virus.

Still a need for us to be cautious in our further relaxation of measures though.
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That’s the way I would have liked to have written it myself 😂

Thanks to you and Bear as always for the leg work on actual stats!

I excel in the back of a fag packet rounded calculations department!
 
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