I think you may be right, but I'm not certain. One of those 4 days actually had a higher figure than the same day the week before, one had an almost identical number and only two, including today, had a significantly lower (more than 10% fall) number than the previous week. I also think there might be an impact from surge testing in Covid hotspots, which will find more cases without really changing our knowledge of the current situation.
Hope you're right though.
Yes, I see what you're saying, and did notice that, but I think those days you mention were artificially high, basically becase the few days before them were low, then I looked into why.
Effectively there was a period of 4 days before with V low cases, right on /just after the BH (Sat 1st to Tue 4th). My guess is less people interested in getting tested on a BH (but will do a few days after) or were hungover for the BH and a couple of days after (like me), and then those that needed tests or had contact got them in a lump, basically it just shifted 10-20% of people out of 1st to 4th, and into 5th-8th, i/e along a few days. I'm just thinking about human behviour, in the 18-40 age groups (and also 40-50), those where most of the cases are, those that go out the most, mix the most and those that are not fully vaccinated.
For me the "average" is 2300ish, and hasn't moved for about a month, despite what the numbers say. This is good though, flat line is good when restrictions are being reduced (and they have quite a lot, and people are more relaxed about the rules), and there's the suge testing in areas of high incidence.
Can see there being massive changes in 2-3 weeks time if we nail this indian variant down in the meantime (if it is more of a transmission risk). Lots of U40's getting vaccinated now, with pfizer, so in 1-2 weeks they will be pretty much at 50-90% coverage, it's going to do wonders for limiting transmisssion, that age group has always been the key for me, it's like the bridge. Have to factor in that the u40's have a much faster immune response and are getting the vaccine with the fastest 1st dose response, it will make a big, big difference.
I'm not convinced this indian variant is 50-100% more transmissible (than uk) either, I just think it's travel cases, imported directly into at risk areas/ demographics. I'm hoping it's the same or no more than 20% and we can handle that for a few weeks.
Now the gov have realised what is going on, they've shut India off (finally) and seemingly targeted those areas and they've all stopped growing rapidly. As soon as they come down from their peaks (which should be quick) it will take a lot of the cases away. It looks like it could be burnt out to me, hopefully it will just hit a wall at the 40+ age groups, when household transmission stops, especially now that people are more aware of it. These places started incresing over a month ago, before India was massive news etc.
Good thread here:
Hopefully it's not wishful thinking!
