The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Yesterday's headline analysis:

• 20,048 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 18,950
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.8% to 22,330 per day, following 1.2% decrease yesterday (and 3rd decrease in the past 4 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 0.8% higher than one week ago (from 3.7% higher yesterday) and 22.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 28.9% higher yesterday and 47.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 397 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 136 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.6% to 269 per day, following 1.9% increase yesterday (and 47th increase in the past 49 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 34.8% higher than one week ago (from 45.8% higher yesterday) and 98.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 118.0% higher yesterday and 144.0% higher 7 days ago)

Apologies for the delay. Combination of late reporting, football and US election!
 
Cheers Billy. Seems a definite plateu on cases which is good. Is the southern areas starting to increase? I ask as a lockdown now when cases are reducing seems a bit odd. Sage and the government have access to all the same numbers you do.
 
Yesterday's headline analysis:

• 20,048 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 18,950
• 7-day average for new cases decreases by 1.8% to 22,330 per day, following 1.2% decrease yesterday (and 3rd decrease in the past 4 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 0.8% higher than one week ago (from 3.7% higher yesterday) and 22.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 28.9% higher yesterday and 47.9% higher 7 days ago)
• 397 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 136 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 1.6% to 269 per day, following 1.9% increase yesterday (and 47th increase in the past 49 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 34.8% higher than one week ago (from 45.8% higher yesterday) and 98.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 118.0% higher yesterday and 144.0% higher 7 days ago)

Apologies for the delay. Combination of late reporting, football and US election!

We have had 20 odd thousand for the past 3 weeks, surely we are at the peak of this second wave
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 25,177 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 20,048
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 0.3% to 22,398 per day, following 1.8% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new cases is 2.4% higher than one week ago (from 0.8% higher yesterday) and 16.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.5% higher yesterday and 38.7% higher 7 days ago)
• 492 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 397 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 9.7% to 295 per day, following 1.6% increase yesterday (and 48th increase in the past 50 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 36.3% higher than one week ago (from 34.8% higher yesterday) and 106.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 98.6% higher yesterday and 137.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
Brutal this, was hoping we wouldn't get any days touching nearly 500 deaths, especially not so soon.

Thing is this lag is still from infections 2-3 weeks ago, when we were on about 20k cases (test positives) per day, so could still be another 25% increase till we get to the 25k cases we're on now. That peak daily could go to near 625 (500 x 125%), and the average to near 400 (in 2 weeks or so) assuming cases flatten and drop with lock down.

I can't see us flattening as fast as in May/ June though, especially with schools and other things open.
 
"Former Chief Scientific Advisor with Pfizer Dr Mike Yeadon has claimed the Covid-19 pandemic is "fundamentally over" in the UK.

Speaking with talkRADIO's Julia Hartley-Brewer, he said: “We now know that loads of people had prior immunity, there’s an unbelievable amount of data, Whitty and Vallance have ignored it…I believe firmly we are now at community immunity.”

Sorted, thanks Mike.
 
"Former Chief Scientific Advisor with Pfizer Dr Mike Yeadon has claimed the Covid-19 pandemic is "fundamentally over" in the UK.

Speaking with talkRADIO's Julia Hartley-Brewer, he said: “We now know that loads of people had prior immunity, there’s an unbelievable amount of data, Whitty and Vallance have ignored it…I believe firmly we are now at community immunity.”

Sorted, thanks Mike.

hes claims get further away by the day, c2000 deaths a week don’t happen at his level of immunity
 
hes claims get further away by the day, c2000 deaths a week don’t happen at his level of immunity

He's in his own little world that Yeadon guy, I don't know what his agenda is? It's like he's pi$$ed off for not being picked for the team, so he's just a sub, heckling at the side.

He can doubt the PCR test accuracy all he likes, but PCR positives go up, then hospital admissions go up and then deaths go up, the graphs have followed each other all over the world for 8 months.
PCR positives ∝ covid deaths ∝ excess deaths, how can he not get this in his ignorant head?

The PCR could be 30%, 50%, 80% or 95% accurate, it makes little difference in reality, a 10% increase in cases is pretty much a 10% increase in deaths, and you can spot that 10% increase at 10% accuracy or 90% accuracy witha large dataset. That's probably why the main concern is not with PCR accuracy, it's the % increase that's most important as that's % increase in dead people.

Fair enough, there will be some false positives with a lower accuracy, but better to be safe than sorry.

His claim of no increase death is ludicrous
W/E 23 Oct, Excess was 1000 per week from ONS data, which is 10% over normal. This was at that time we were on 163 deaths per day average.
W/E 30 Oct, 237 deaths per day av, so we're gonna be on about 1700 excess for that week (about 17%)
W/E 6 Nov, likely 320 deaths per day av, so we're gonna be on about 2300 excess for that week (about 23%)

Maybe Yeadon doesn't think 23% more dead people is a problem, and the flattening of cases has directly followed restrictions imposed.

Covid patients not able to breathe need to be treated, if nurses are treating them, then they're not treating other things which are immediately less urgent. We just don't have half the NHS sat around doing nothing, waiting for a pandemic.
 
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