The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Billy Horner said:
I've found that, during this second wave, judging whether the infections are growing rapidly, gradually or beginning to plateau has been much, much harder than the first wave. During March/early April, the rate of growth was so rapid, it was obvious when it was growing, slowing, flattening and then, finally, about to fall.

This time around, in the 104 days since infections began rising again (starting on 8th July, four days after the government lifted most of the lockdown restrictions), there have only been seven days where the daily rise in the 7-day average was more than 10%, and four of those occasions are directly attributable to the 16,000 cases which were missed over the course of a week and then added to two consecutive days.

Therefore, I don't think this wave has, at any point, been characterised by exponential growth. It has, however, been characterised by periods of gradual, steady growth, followed by periods of lower growth (and even some decline), followed again by gradual, steady growth. For this reason, I think it's too early to say whether we've peaked or not yet.



Just to expand on the explanation above, when the 16,000 missing cases were added to the figures for 3rd and 4th October, this had the effect of artificially inflating the 7-day average until 11th October. As soon as these days dropped out of the calculation, the 7-day average immediately fell by 9.1% (making this week's starting point look lower than the previous week's), since which time it has increased by between 1-5% each day.

As explained above, that is absolutely characteristic of the sort of growth we have experienced throughout this second wave. It's certainly possible that the rate of growth is slowing (and the most recent data for cases by specimen date suggest that it might be), but I would want to see a few more days' data yet before calling it.
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Although a bit behind, have you compared the weekly spot ONS infection survey increases to see if T&T is representative or not.
 
I imagine false positives may be the reason for that @Billy Horner and the clustered spread of course.

The problem is you get groups of cases when you open a new centre for testing. That was why Leicester for instance were the first (are they still locked down?!) Local lockdown when in reality they'd opened up a bunch of new test centres there.
 
We can hope for the minute Billy. With an r seemingly just above 1 when cases started to rise again, you would expect, would you not, a tipping point to be reached where cases started to rise quicker and quicker? In other words the r rate to settle back to well above 1. What we are seeing is hopeful in as much as infection rates don't seem to be climbing but staying steady albeit with an r above 1. This might mean that we flatten off at around 300 deaths a day instead of 1000 plus. Still a terrible winter but not, perhaps, as bad as I had expected. Let's hope
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 21,331 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 18,804
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 3.3% to 18,232 per day, following 4.1% increase yesterday (and 49th increase in the past 52 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 21.8% higher than one week ago (from 21.0% higher yesterday) and 52.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 61.4% higher yesterday and 146.0% higher 7 days ago)
• 241 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 80 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 11.5% to 136 per day, following 3.7% increase yesterday (and 33rd increase in the past 35 days)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 65.6% higher than one week ago (from 68.2% higher yesterday) and 154.4% higher than two weeks ago (from 131.3% higher yesterday and 132.0% higher 7 days ago)
 
The good news to this terrible day for the stats we were all hoping wouldn't be so bleak is the ONS data is showing a fall @bear66 I did not read the article just saw a headline flash up .

Will edit if I turn out to be talking balls of course.
 
Alvez_48 said:
The good news to this terrible day for the stats we were all hoping wouldn't be so bleak is the ONS data is showing a fall @bear66 I did not read the article just saw a headline flash up .

Will edit if I turn out to be talking balls of course.
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They quoted 438 deaths up to 9 October compared with 321 a week earlier. Billy had 413 deaths based on 7 day average to 9 October.
 
bear66 said:
Billy said he'd take a look.
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In the 28-day period, 11th September to 8th October, the ONS Infection Survey estimate for daily infections in England increased by 365%. Over the same 28-day period, the 7-day average for positive cases by date reported increased by 473%, whilst the 7-day average for positive cases by specimen date increased by 379%.

Therefore, on the above evidence, there would appear to be a strong correlation between the infection survey and positive cases by specimen date, and a reasonable but less strong correlation between the infection survey and positive cases by date reported.

I think that makes sense, as we know that specimen date is the best measure over the longer-term. The problem with that metric is that it is a poor indicator of the most recent 4/5 days, due to time lags in reporting test results.
 
Looking at it another way, in the 7 day period ending 10th September, we appear to have been finding 45.8% of all cases in England (7-day average for positive cases as a proportion of ONS infection survey estimate). In the 7 day period ending 8th October, that proportion had hardly changed, as we were finding 45.9% of all cases in England.

Therefore, I don't think there's much evidence that the number of positive cases identified has been particularly constrained by testing capacity. Not recently at least.
 
RS I am sure there has been a fair amount of misdiagnosis in a time that was incredibly stressful for health workers. Not really a surprise I would have thought.
 
Laughing said:
RS I am sure there has been a fair amount of misdiagnosis in a time that was incredibly stressful for health workers. Not really a surprise I would have thought.
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Also came across this from Australia, this is absolutely disgusting no other word for it. If I was a parent of one of those babies who had their chance of life snatched away I'd be getting myself in a lot of trouble.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1318632532716457986

There is absolutely no defence for the actions of those complicit in these rules that have prevented these children having a fighting chance at life.
 
You are right RS, not all the story there, but yes it is reprehensible that travel could not be arranged securely to give these children a chance of life.
 
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