Taken from MIT technogy review

Alvez_48

Alvez_48

Well-known member
The new coronavirus has killed more than 8,700 people, which is about 4% of the 214,000 confirmed cases, making for a shocking death rate.

But the real fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is certainly lower, and possibly much lower. The reason epidemiologists can’t say for sure is they don’t know how many people are infected but never go to the hospital or even have symptoms. In essence, modelers are missing an accurate denominator of the death-rate calculation.

That’s a huge problem for setting policy. John Ioannidis of Stanford University, writing March 17 in the publication STAT, argued that the true death rate could be less than that of the seasonal flu. If so, “draconian countermeasures” are being decided amidst an “evidence fiasco” of “utterly unreliable” data about how many people are infected.

- it's talking about the new anti body testing kits...
So is it worth shutting everything down and Draconian legislation based on an 'evidence fiasco' and 'utterly unreliable' data.
 
Last edited:
It's talking literally about the death rate nothing to do with immune response or vaccines..
 
Isn't the number of deaths more important than the death rate?

Some diseases are almost 100% fatal, but because they are not easy to catch they are not a concern. Something with a 1% fatality rate but so infectious 80% of a population might get it is a far bigger concern.
 
No one knows the flu death rate. It isn't put down on a death certificate. There's even confusion how C19 deaths are counted. Death + C19 = C19 deaths by some countries. Other Look at the condition of the patient and say it was the condition and not C19 even if they tested positive for C19.
 
I know, but COVID-19 has no known vaccine and we do not know how good or bad our immune response is as we don't know how many have had it.
We have years of empirical data on the seasonal flu, we have months of patchy data on this.
 
Ye take your point lefty and dood...

But in fairness flu has killed approximately 100,000 since January globally according to WHO estimates.

It also changes every year so we are only in effect vaccinating on the old version every time.

I'd argue like the Dr from Stanford we are making massive decisions based on a lack of evidence.
 
Anyway just thought it was interesting hopefully this new testing kit can give us an accurate depiction of the situation rather than what we currently have.

It's.massively important
 
Alvez_48 said:
Ye take your point lefty and dood...

But in fairness flu has killed approximately 100,000 since January globally according to WHO estimates.

It also changes every year so we are only in effect vaccinating on the old version every time.

I'd argue like the Dr from Stanford we are making massive decisions based on a lack of evidence.
Click to expand...
And what if this mutates and becomes more deadly in the future?
Nature has a way of adapting and a viruses sole purpose is to replicate itself.
 
“ Rome reported 427 new COVID-19 fatalities in a day, taking its death toll to 3,405, more than 150 ahead of China. Italy's total stood at 1,016 just a week ago, but with 300-400 new deaths a day it has now tripled over that period.”

Yet people still compare it to the flu.

Why are people so keen to down play this and even to dismiss it as a hoax/conspiracy.
 
Not downplaying it, I'm working from home and not going out and about much at all whilst doing my very best to keep excellent hygiene.

I managed to buy a 16 pack of loo roll today and knocked on all the elderly people on my streets door to ask if they needed some (managed to give most of it away).

I'm just trying to think critically and not panic to be honest.
 
Alvez_48 said:
I'm just trying to think critically and not panic to be honest.
Click to expand...

Using the principle of precaution is not panicking. There is sufficient evidence to justify a cautious approach which most countries are adopting albeit belatedly. Just look at what is happening in hotspots in Italy where people are dying alone and are being left in their beds for days as there's nobody to bury them. It's not worth playing poker with people's lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...lian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top