Super Michael Carrick
- Thread starter Diego
- Start date
That's not falling off. That's regression to the mean. We finished about where we would with the average over a season. You can't pick out individual good and bad runs. You have to take the whole season into consideration.
Rofesleg
Well-known member
I don't really know what point you are making.
That is his whole tenure broken into 4 fairly equal sections. It shows a definite decline in performance from each quarter to the next. For whatever reason something went wrong. And it went wrong before Burnley. I don't believe it was a regression to mean.
Leo improved ppg immediately and Carrick even more so.
Mr Sheppey
Active member
Just a shame that there are very few points between most clubs which means a couple of bad results can put us down about 10 places, although it’s the same for everyone. I can see a late scramble for play off places this season.
TeaCider
Well-known member
It's the lowest points tally for a play-off spot after 25 games in the history of the Championship.
Potentially a mad end to the season if it stays this tight.
Imagine that last day if a dozen teams were still in with a mathematical chance of making it or slipping out.
The point is that it doesn't really work in equal sections. We were about the 5th to 8th best team in the division last season and that's where we finished. You don't earn your points uniformly over a season. You have peaks and troughs. There are good runs and bad runs.
We didn't just get worse, our good run ended, we had some patchy runs where we were earning our expected ppg. We were winning some and losing some a bit sporadically as expected for a team of our ability and then there was a bad run where we were losing more. When you are on a good run players put in extra performances to sustain it. Once it's finished things return to normal and if you start losing heads drop and things go against you.
We're still on our good run this season. You can write off an away defeat against the top of the league team. 2 or 3 bad results and the run ends and then things are different. Hopefully it continues but I think you have to have a very poor understanding of how football works if you expect it to continue indefinitely.
festa5
Well-known member
The tightness of the league shows most teams (bar the top 2) are consistently inconsistent.
If we can sustain this form (probably a big IF but can probably afford for it to drop off slightly)
or something like it then we've every chance of starting to pull away.
no reason why not. We look balanced, most players are playing well and although we've been "lucky" with some late goals we've also earned that luck. Performances under Carrick have generally been deserving of the results.
If we can sustain this form (probably a big IF but can probably afford for it to drop off slightly)
or something like it then we've every chance of starting to pull away.
no reason why not. We look balanced, most players are playing well and although we've been "lucky" with some late goals we've also earned that luck. Performances under Carrick have generally been deserving of the results.
Rofesleg
Well-known member
I really can't work out how you don't think Wilder's results got worse over time.
But hey ho.