Stop Posting the Conspiracy Rubbish

bear66 said:
Just been looking at the figures for excess deaths in England. I was surprised to see they've been higher than the 5 year average since 10 August; that's 14 weeks. They've also been higher than the highest figure for that week in the last 5 years for 11 out of 14 weeks, the last of those weeks being 8 weeks ago. Data here
Click to expand...

Yeah, those numbers are clear and the rise has become increasingly more significant over the past few weeks from that data.

I’ve not been in disagreement with the excess deaths figures or argued that isn’t the case.

My point to statto was that it’s become really clearly high again in the past few weeks especially and I don’t think anybody can argue against that.

There was a period not so long ago, of a couple of months where the excess deaths were below the 5 yr average.
I think that period is probably where much of the disagreement arose or people with dubious motives were able to capitalise on painting a picture that suited their agenda.
(To clarify, I’m not suggesting folk on here with dubious motives, I mean people in certain sections of the media or on social media).
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Yeah, those numbers are clear and the rise has become increasingly more significant over the past few weeks from that data.

I’ve not been in disagreement with the excess deaths figures or argued that isn’t the case.

My point to statto was that it’s become really clearly high again in the past few weeks especially and I don’t think anybody can argue against that.

There was a period not so long ago, of a couple of months where the excess deaths were below the 5 yr average.
I think that period is probably where much of the disagreement arose or people with dubious motives were able to capitalise on painting a picture that suited their agenda.
(To clarify, I’m not suggesting folk on here with dubious motives, I mean people in certain sections of the media or on social media).
Click to expand...
Those are for England. I think if you look at the UK it is nearer 8 weeks than 14 weeks, presumably lowered by the other home nations.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Yeah, those numbers are clear and the rise has become increasingly more significant over the past few weeks from that data.

I’ve not been in disagreement with the excess deaths figures or argued that isn’t the case.

My point to statto was that it’s become really clearly high again in the past few weeks especially and I don’t think anybody can argue against that.

There was a period not so long ago, of a couple of months where the excess deaths were below the 5 yr average.
I think that period is probably where much of the disagreement arose or people with dubious motives were able to capitalise on painting a picture that suited their agenda.
(To clarify, I’m not suggesting folk on here with dubious motives, I mean people in certain sections of the media or on social media).
Click to expand...
Fabio, just for my interest what is your occupation and/or what statistical qualifications do you hold ?
 
Osboro said:
Fabio, just for my interest what is your occupation and/or what statistical qualifications do you hold ?
Click to expand...

I don’t hold any statistical qualifications, just discussing things and points of view put forward here, in the media and on social media. Agree with some stuff on both sides of the debate and I also disagree with some stuff on both sides of the debate. Some bits I just find interesting.
Some things don’t always add up and are contradictory.
Some things don’t seem to be able to be discussed or questioned.
I don’t think any of this is black and white and I don’t think you have to pick a side and be entrenched in it. I think both sides have used some dubious methods of representing data, from journalists, governments, conspiracy theorists, social media statisticians, SAGE etc. It’s nigh on impossible to ascertain what is actually going on, other than when cases, hospitalisations and deaths are rising, steady, or falling, and it’s apparent across all the main means of measurement - ONS, Zoe symptom tracker and REACT study.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
I think it’s only in the last few weeks or so that excess deaths have really clearly significantly risen above the normal 5 yr average ranges.
Click to expand...
That's not really the point, relying on excess deaths figures, which are late, is extremely slow to react to what was happening 5 weeks ago (and denying it, like some were doing on here, is even worse).

You can prevent the excess and longer lockdowns by taking action when there's sharp rises in cases (like the circuit breaker talked about in September), everyone competent with figures knows cases = covid deaths 2-3 weeks later and that excess deaths on ONS come 2 weeks after this, it's been closely linked everywhere in the world since March.

Saying well we can only just see the excess in the last couple of weeks is a bit of a cop out. It's like someone jumping out of a plane and not expecting to die until they've been buried three weeks. As soon as the person leaves the plane, they know where they're going to be in 5 weeks, and it's not on the plane.

It's like on the 20th Nov, with 23k cases 7 day average (been similar for 3 week prior), we know that's going to impact deaths around the 5th December and won't show up on ONS and in the media until the 20th. That doesn't mean wait until the 20th and act surprised when we're still on 2k excess deaths per week (which is about 20% over).
 
I don’t think I have worded that clearly. Let me try again.
I was agreeing with you, but simply quantifying that it has become way more apparent recently, and it is impossible to argue against a rise. It’s gone from being below the 5 yr average, to slightly above, to much more significantly above, over a few months, which has become much more clear from the data released for the weeks more recently.
I haven’t been arguing against the excess deaths.

I think most of the excess death discussions were back in the end of the summer, early Autumn before it become overwhelmingly clear. There is obviously a lag between when the excess deaths occur and when the ONS report it.

Anyway, round and round in circles.
I agree that excess deaths are real, a concern, and above the 5 yr average currently.
Let’s hope they reduce soon.

You’d find an argument in an empty room 😉
(Please take that in the lighthearted manner in which it is intended)
 
FabioPorkpie said:
I don’t think I have worded that clearly. Let me try again.
I was agreeing with you, but simply quantifying that it has become way more apparent recently, and it is impossible to argue against a rise. It’s gone from being below the 5 yr average, to slightly above, to much more significantly above, over a few months, which has become much more clear from the data released for the weeks more recently.
I haven’t been arguing against the excess deaths.

I think most of the excess death discussions were back in the end of the summer, early Autumn before it become overwhelmingly clear. There is obviously a lag between when the excess deaths occur and when the ONS report it.

Anyway, round and round in circles.
I agree that excess deaths are real, a concern, and above the 5 yr average currently.
Let’s hope they reduce soon.

You’d find an argument in an empty room 😉
(Please take that in the lighthearted manner in which it is intended)
Click to expand...
Yeah, I wasn't totally just responding to you, more an expanded general response at the denial by some on here and to what is going on social media etc, I should have put it in a separate post, sorry for that.

Cases have started to drop now for about a week, so we should see a noticeable change in covid deaths in 2 weeks and on ONS excess around Christmas. Excess will probably run level or might even dip a little if covid has completely dislodged flu and other problems, unless deeper winter just makes it worse, but 1500-2500 looks the most likely :(

If deaths start declining early December then the deniers will be back out, claiming it stopped because of herd immunity or was a total coincidence, where as in reality it was only slowed by the tiers and sent into reverse by lockdown.
If that reduction happens people will again be complacent for December and Christmas, and that's the last thing we need, we need people to be on guard when socialising and visiting family, which I'm sure most will do. Either way though, December and Crimbo is going to bite us big time in January :(
 
Statto1 said:
Yeah, I wasn't totally just responding to you, more an expanded general response at the denial by some on here and to what is going on social media etc, I should have put it in a separate post, sorry for that.

Cases have started to drop now for about a week, so we should see a noticeable change in covid deaths in 2 weeks and on ONS excess around Christmas. Excess will probably run level or might even dip a little if covid has completely dislodged flu and other problems, unless deeper winter just makes it worse, but 1500-2500 looks the most likely :(

If deaths start declining early December then the deniers will be back out, claiming it stopped because of herd immunity or was a total coincidence, where as in reality it was only slowed by the tiers and sent into reverse by lockdown.
If that reduction happens people will again be complacent for December and Christmas, and that's the last thing we need, we need people to be on guard when socialising and visiting family, which I'm sure most will do. Either way though, December and Crimbo is going to bite us big time in January :(
Click to expand...
You keep on mentioning the word 'deniers'. Who has denied the existence of covid on here?
You can name names it's an open forum.
 
RandySavage said:
You keep on mentioning the word 'deniers'. Who has denied the existence of covid on here?
You can name names it's an open forum.
Click to expand...

I didn't mean anyone is denying it's existence (not that I've seen on here), but you know who you are and you know what I meant, hopefully for your sake anyway.

By "deniers" I meant denying, playing down, incorrectly understanding the problem or how bad the problem could become if "left to it". Then you also have those who have a very little grasp on the numbers, yet try try and use them (sometimes false, or not applicable) to suit their narrative against reasons for protective measures.

This could be denying any of these:
The usefulness of PCR
The accuracy of PCR
The usefulness of antibody tests/ react
The accuracy of antibody tests/ react
A fatality rate nearer 1% than 0.2%
Denying lockdowns work
Denying Sweden is a massive failure for it's previous attempt
Denying Sweden is heading for a massive problem again
Denying the lack of herd immunity
Denying the second wave
Denying the excess deaths
Denying more excess deaths are coming on ONS releases, in line with case rises and covid death rises
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top