The 250,000 was by November 2021 if we did nothing but increased ICU beds. It looks like it was a total underestimate but it was based on the initual Ro of 2.6. That was later believed to be 5.7 but the Kent variant was 70% higher with an Ro of 9.There is a gigantic discrepancy between 250k deaths by June and 40k deaths by June. The latter is just above the expected national average. The former was wildly inaccurate and was the major model cited by the government at the time.