I get why you'd think that but it's not the case. I pay attention to what Starmer says and does. I'd love to get a nice surprise at some point and hear some left wing rhetoric, or policies or some support for trade unions from him. Sadly it isn't there. That's not what he's about. He's a right wing ideologue.
Starmer sacks shadow transport minister for appearing on picket line
- Thread starter InglebyUTB
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I get why you'd think that but it's not the case. I pay attention to what Starmer says and does. I'd love to get a nice surprise at some point and hear some left wing rhetoric, or policies or some support for trade unions from him. Sadly it isn't there. That's not what he's about. He's a right wing ideologue.
Come on be serious. What do you even mean by this? Starmer's credibility is already a mess going from a left wing platform in the first quarter of 2020 to a very reactionary one ever since. He's not going to suddenly pivot back when an election does get called is he? What you see now is what we'll get as a manifesto.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Time will tell what a Starmer manifesto will look like but I think he’s done very well to turn a 13% deficit in 2019 to a solid lead in 2022.
And a lot of Tories think they have done a good job supporting working people through the pandemic with furlough and small business loans, vaccine purchases, lockdown to protect the vulnerable etc etc.
I wouldn’t underestimate how clever Starmer has been tactically in that period to chip away at Johnson’s weaknesses and force a Tory PM with an 80 seat win under his belt to resign, not the entire story I know, but Labour polling around 40% would indicate a lot of people do like what they are seeing.
2.5 years to go. Looks like Truss is turning into a shoe in. Suspect there maybe a bit a bump up in the polls for them initially. There’s still 2.5 years, unless Truss shocks everyone and becomes the consummate leader and politician. Currently Labour have a 13 point lead.
Hope that she is the idiot she seems to be, and with a divided party. The lead should end near the 20 point mark
Hope that she is the idiot she seems to be, and with a divided party. The lead should end near the 20 point mark
Understatement of the year! Johnson's demise has a lot more to do with Cummings and the leaks in his own party than anything Starmer's done.
BlindBoyGrunt
Well-known member
Really? In the current climate and with this Government? The most corrupt, conniving, dishonest, government in living memory?
asredastheycome
Well-known member
How was their offer of 3% out flanking Steamer. It was a disgrace.Yes
March 2021. I'll await a reply from you referencing 2020 shall I?
Sounds like you've been using your imagination again.
Back when nurses pay was front page news Starmer refused, multiple times in interviews, to suggest any figure other than the tories pledged 2.1%. The tories ended up increasing their offer to 3%, easily outflanking Starmer.
It's similar to this week in a way. He's so scared of doing or saying anything that could be criticised he ends up making it easy for the tories to outflank him however they choose.
The unions are asking for 5% above inflation, pay restoration, for the years of below inflation rises. If Labour had any intention of really making a difference to NHS pay then they'd be quoting these figures. The fact they aren't makes me believe that below inflation pay rises would be the order of the day under Labour as well. I'm sure it would be closer to inflation but it would still not be a payrise in real terms.
FabioPorkpie
Well-known member
I think this is the point, the thing that worries me. In terms of voting Labour, more and more folk seem to be shifting to the latter as a reason, rather than the former.
That’s not good, even when we are all on the same side.
Andy_W
Well-known member
What he's done is turn around the biggest Labour election loss since 1935 into the Labour biggest poll lead since at least about decade ago, in just over 2 years.
What odds would you have got in 2019 that Labour could have a predicted seat lead of 63, by half time (after being 162 down at kick off)?
What were you saying in early 2020 when the Tories had an absolutely massive lead in the polls? KS/ Labour then cut that Tory lead down to almost level by the end of 2020, were you giving out any praise then?
Then what were you saying in Jan-Summer 21 when the Tories picked up a lead again (largely due to vaccine rollout)?
Here, I'll show you:
14 point Tory lead - Disastrous polling for Labour
This makes sense to me: "The crusade around identity politics and its encouragement of separation, contradicts the unity required for the Labour Party to be an effective political force able to bring about meaningful change. Identity politics and its obsession with our differences, instead of...
fmttmboro.com
I said on that and other threads that they would overall trend up, and the short term tory boost would wear off, and Labour would gain and Tories would slide, and look what's happened.
Labour are aiming to take some of the middle ground, it's the only way to win an election. There will be ups and downs along the way, dependent on the news, but the trend since the last election has been great for labour. There's likely nothing good coming economically anytime soon, or much else for that matter, so if Labour don't shoot themselves in the foot or if the Tories don't recover this mess then the polls going into the GE should give us the best chance we've had in ages. I expect a bit of a dead cat bounce with a new Tory leader, but it will soon wear off.
I'd love it if Starmer could promise an absolute boat load of policies which were further left (than what he will propose, which will be better than what the tories propose), but he can't as it won't win an election, and if you don't win you get absolutely zero (or even less). Nailing policies to the mast now would be political suicide, they've got time, so might as well wait, and adapt to the situation.
Duffman
Well-known member
Any Labour supporter who believes it is ok for a shadow minister to make policy on the hoof on live TV is like Corbyn, someone who loves opposition rather than government. He left Starmer with no choice at all - if he hadn’t removed him the party was exposed to all sorts of criticism. For too many, finding an excuse to dislike Starmer is a smokescreen to cover their real leanings. Get behind the bloke and get this horrible lot out.
Andy_W
Well-known member
It's certainly understandable to ask for that, but has anyone had that in any sector, other than some of the rich? I don't know what the answer to that is, but I'm guessing it's no.
We need to keep in mind that we have had a recession to recover from, after a long period of growth, it's hard to imagine that we all don't have to take a hit after that, especially with a Tory government. I suppose the hit needs to be more balanced, and lass impactful on those worse off, rather than the ways the Tories did it, by making them take more of the hit. Maybe the way out of that is more tax free allowance, bumping up the minimum wage or providing more benefits to those who need it, and taxing the higher earners more. We need to level out the playing field, as it's been stacked against those at the bottom for far too long.
I'd love everyone to be able to get a pay rise, which matches inflation, but I don't think that's realistic unfortunately, not with Brexit, Covid and the massive energy problems. I suppose the hope is that inflation drops, and wages come back above that, to claw that deficit back, but it's going to take years to recover from, probably a decade. We're in possibly worse circumstances now than we were in 2010 after the last recession. We've not got more debt/ GDP than we've had since the 60's.
Andy_W
Well-known member
At this time, I'm ok with either, as long as they vote, and don't vote Tory. I'd take anything to get these clowns out, they're the worst bunch we've ever had in my lifetime, but we need to keep in mind that it's the public who voted these morons in, repeatedly.
We've got one hell of a messed up makeup of the public voters, who seem to want to keep voting for self harm, it's one hell of a messed up ship we need to put the breaks on, and turn around. How we do that probably isn't going to be ideal, but we just need to ensure we do it, and then we can start to head in the right direction again. If we don't we'll just continue on the wrong path, getting even further off course.
Anyway, I've had enough of this, there's a game to watch. We can all do this again when the tory vote picks up a bit after the next clown comes in
Yes, loads of industries have had inflation matching payrises, especially when inflation was so low. I haven't had an inflation matching raise in the NHS for at least 10 years. Every single year I get a paycut so I think an inflation beating paycut once would be doable.
The Tories are hoping that inflation drops again next year but unless inflation goes negative my stagnant wages will never catch up to this year's inflation. If they match payrises with inflation in the future I'll never recover the almost 10% I'll have lost just this year.
“A week is a long time in politics” She has well over 100 to get through. Time will tell. Unless she gets a big boost and tries going for a GE on the back of it.
Scrote
Well-known member
The purpose of the Labour Party reduced to "ideologist noise and posturing".
Wow.
There is no half time or full time or kick off. The polls mean less than f*ck all. And in the meantime the tories ride roughshod over the country whilst the opposition are scared to oppose.
Read @Nano's post over and over until something sinks in. They've explained really well why it's not a good outcome for workers to have their elected representatives going in to hiding for years at a time.You keep talking about adapting to the situation
I don't know what you think is changing. Starmer hasn't gone from saying nationalise utilities to backing the status quo cause of some exciting new info he's only just heard about. Get real. It's very simple. He lied to con Labour members into voting for him as leader. From the moment he got in he no longer needed to maintain those lies.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Labour need to get in power to have any purpose at all, maybe you are happy with being ‘effective’ opposition by pulling the Tories to the left? I personally don’t see much sign of that helping working people just now or preserving the NHS. The NHS might not survive another 5 years of the Tories. If you are genuinely socialist does that not worry you just a little?
History would indicate a Labour leader who is not centrist will not be able to win.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I was on about above inflation pay rises, not inflation matching pay rises from 2010 to 2019. I'm 100% for making up those public sector wages to match standard inflation, along with everyone else who didn't get that either in the private sector (especially those worse off). The only thing I'm concerned with is if Labour could afford to do that (I'm not saying they can't, but I'd like to see how they could), as they would be budgeting for Tory budget issues. They might have a 15 year Tory debt/ problem to make up, which is probably not possible in one term. It might be looking too far ahead but trying to do something too quickly could just lead to a loss in 2030 or whatever, and we end up with another 10-15 years of the Tories. 5 years of gain for 15 of pain isn't a great long term deal.
We had over 10 years with Labour (under Blair, who most of the anti Starmer lot also seemed to hate) on the early part of the graph below, where wages were averaging 2% above inflation. I'd like to go back to that, and we had decent growth then too.
The problem is a recession comes at a price, and is always going to recoup some of those previous gains (see 2010-2015 below), and a recession will always come at a cost to the public sector and private sector, just like a period of boom should benefit both.
Voting in the Tories will always come at a price, sometimes one which is unrecoverable short term. The Tories don't give out enough to the worse off in times of growth (especially to the public sector), and just don't give enough (to the worse off) in the bad times either.
I think 99% of us are hoping inflation drops, it's the number one problem for the UK at the minute, and as much as I hate to say it, the Tories and Labour need to get on the same page with how best to tackle that
I just think we need to be realistic, we need to realise there was a cost for the 2010 recession (which wasn't fully paid), a cost for Brexit, a cost for Covid, a cost for this war/ energy war/ inflation and a cost for having the Tories in for 15 years. We're not going to get out of that scot free, not by a long shot.
I just don't see how anyone could recover that in one term, and everyone's going to pay a price for that. With the Tories, the worse off will foot most of that cost, under Labour (with anyone in charge) it would be far more balanced.
Even under Labour wages would not have matched inflation (across the board) from 2010-2015, but it could be seen as just to be off-setting that against 2000-2010 gains. I think Labour could have largely made that up that loss though, in 2015-2019, had they been in power. I don't think anyone can match the current 10% inflation, and that's going to take years to claw back.
Inflation is normally around 2%, so I suppose the long term answer is to aim for 2% above that, to pay for previous losses. But there needs to be a limit or the yearly/ 5 year budget won't work, or you end up losing power. So like now, where we have 10% v 3% or whatever it is, that's another 7% to claw back, an top of the 10% or so the public sector lost. That 17% could take 8 years to claw back, if wages were at like 4% growth and inflation 2%.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Corbyn didn't win (twice), and a whole load of **** went down from 2020 to now, so we need to start from scratch. It's not ideal, but we need to play the hand we're dealt, and if we don't get in then we're automatically folding.
Wages do contribute to inflation, they're usually a companies largest cost, I think the range is typically 40-80% of costs are on wages. Loads of companies just about break even, so if you put up wages, then the price of what they sell/ provide is going up. For the companies who make a profit, they will always try and retain the profit margin, so if wages go up 5% then what they sell might do the same etc. I think it's unrealistic to expect companies to put up wages and not charge more, it would be nice, but it won't happen, as they're greedy. Wages aren't the driver for this inflation though, energy/ demand/ materials are, which are the other main company costs.
In May 2020 Starmer had been in power a month, I think it's unrealistic to expect such a turnaround in a month.
Getting the SNP seats back is unlikely, especially short term. The Tories destroyed the chance of any English parties doing all that well there. Those seats won't go back to the Tories either though, and if they do come back then I think Labour/ LD have the best chance.
I don't care about his personal polling, I care about Labour V Tories, or whoever is strongest V Tories in whatever seat they're fighting for.
I think Truss will make it closer (think Sunak would too), but they're not getting a majority, and think Labour will get more seats. I think there will be a dead cat bounce, but the Tories are still a dead cat. I'd probably expect a better bounce from Truss than Sunak, but no more seats for Truss than Sunak, but will be interesting to see what happens. It looks like both of them are trying to target some of the centre. I can see Truss winning, and maybe Sunak going back as chancellor.