Scientists disagree on large scale

Yeah, apparently anyone who sensibly questions why the government strategy is in such stark contrast to the entire rest of the world, is just politicising it because they are narrow minded lefties.
 
It seems the UK government, given the choice between a crack down on external/internal travel and isolating the vulnerable have chosen the latter. The challenge now is to identify the vulnerable and lock them away from human contact for 6 months or until the virus has swept through the population.

I suppose it makes some sense. If you can infect enough people who are strong enough to recover, then you can create so much immunity within the general population you no longer have to worry about significant infection in the future. If they're successful the UK will be one of the few countries on earth with minimal restriction on travel - either inbound or outbound. Lets hope the NHS can survive the worst.

In contrast, China and others who have taken the approach of full containment will be fighting outbreaks of the virus until they can vaccinate the entire population. Which may be a long time coming with 1.3 billion or so to vaccinate. And if you lived in China, how confident would you be as areas of the country are locked down on a regular basis.

There is some hope of a medical solution for the most sick. As well as the potential of anti-viral drugs currently in trial, there are also existing drugs that may help with Cytokine Storm syndrome - that's the factor that seems to be responsible for many deaths in younger people.
 
I was talking to a Chinese friend yesterday with family in an Eastern province. Things are almost back to normal there now with people back to their typical daily routines.

Your link is frightening as we are doing nothing like the things that best practice would demand. The US Spanish flu responses are interesting as it shows how level of response at the right time is critical. The graphs showing how a one day delay can be catastrophic to an overloaded health system.

The best argument I've seen for herd immunity policy is that those countries on lockdown do not have an exit plan. Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Taiwan appear to be exiting quite well two months down the line.

It will come back, but the longer the delay, the better chance or health services will cope and reduce fatalities and there will be a vaccine in 12 months or hopefully earlier.
 
It feels to me that UK are trying to manage the economy and NHS capacity as much as anything, and are therefore not doing what other countries are doing, or not at the same time at least.

I think the government are trying to time the social distancing call with schools on Easter holidays - and I expect schools, colleges and universities etc will close for at least a couple of extra weeks to coincide with the two week Easter break.
 
bear66 said:
I was talking to a Chinese friend yesterday with family in an Eastern province. Things are almost back to normal there now with people back to their typical daily routines.

Your link is frightening as we are doing nothing like the things that best practice would demand. The US Spanish flu responses are interesting as it shows how level of response at the right time is critical. The graphs showing how a one day delay can be catastrophic to an overloaded health system.

The best argument I've seen for herd immunity policy is that those countries on lockdown do not have an exit plan. Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Taiwan appear to be exiting quite well two months down the line.

It will come back, but the longer the delay, the better chance or health services will cope and reduce fatalities and there will be a vaccine in 12 months or hopefully earlier.
Click to expand...
It’s going to come back every year, and vulnerable people will be having the coronavirus vaccine in the same way that they are having the flu vaccine every year.
 
I think that was last Monday, but Hancock's comments this morning suggests we may be moving away from herd immunity as a main focus.
 
dooderooni said:
This is the pertinent question as testing doesn't seem to be a priority. Without the numbers how can you report on the success of any measures or on the extent of fatalities?
Click to expand...
The article shows ways in which assumptions about the rate of infection can be calculated. However, testing can only help verify the numbers to some extent. So I can see a need for a reasonable level of testing. Combined with immediate significant action on social distancing. The article shows how important this step is.
 
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