Scathing attack on government Covid-19 response

Muttley said:
Upshot is we don't really know. Graphs that show an exponential acceleration of infection are simple extrapolations. Might happen, might not. For every "expert" saying it will there are "experts" saying it won't. What I take from it is that the real risk is to the elderly and the imuno-compromised. If you have someone in one of those groups in your family (as I do) then you need to take steps yourself to mitigate their risk. You need to keep those people safer by reducing their contact with lots of people and making sure that you are as careful as you can be not to bring teh infection to them.

Panic buying will not even help yourself. (Fukk nose what ANYONE is going to do with five hundred bog rolls and two tons of pasta?) For what it is worth I think that the government has it just about right. I suspect that we will see school and college closures some time next week and further containment through travel restrictions in the week after. I am not convinced that making these calls earlier will significantly reduce the impact of the virus.

Be safe everyone.
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You haven’t read the analysis I linked to in post 161.
 
The former Chair of the Royal College of GPs is recovering from the virus, which she said was “like the worst case of flu ever” and described the experience as “worse than childbirth”. Having recovered at home without hospitalisation, I suspect her symptoms would be described as mild to moderate.

This situation requires serious action, but the Government and its behavioural scientists seem to think that if they tell us to stop doing things we’ll all stick our fingers in our ears and ignore them.

I entirely disagree. I think the country is ready for such measures and is desperately seeking some genuine leadership.
 
Here (and in America) we’ve probably got the worst possible leader for at least 200 years to deal with it. I think even May and Cameron would do a better job. I suppose Eden made a right botch of the Suez crisis, so maybe second worst.
 
Tell that to the Italians. You have no idea if our approach will be as bad as theirs
 
Genuine question that I can't seem to understand is that; given that the virus has little to no effect on children and young people - why is there a clamour to close schools?

I'd hazard a guess that the minute the schools get closed that grandparents will step in to support families and then we will see virus carriers side by side with those most vulnerable.

Any thoughts?
 
Emmersons_BrazillianDong said:
Genuine question that I can't seem to understand is that; given that the virus has little to no effect on children and young people - why is there a clamour to close schools?

I'd hazard a guess that the minute the schools get closed that grandparents will step in to support families and then we will see virus carriers side by side with those most vulnerable.

Any thoughts?
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That’s one reason not to close schools. Soon as that happens parents across the country leave work. I get full pay when it happens i get to sit at home but I don’t see the need yet
 
Emmersons_BrazillianDong said:
Genuine question that I can't seem to understand is that; given that the virus has little to no effect on children and young people - why is there a clamour to close schools?

I'd hazard a guess that the minute the schools get closed that grandparents will step in to support families and then we will see virus carriers side by side with those most vulnerable.

Any thoughts?
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School children catch everything. My 5 yr old has been ill none stop for weeks. My problem is how do you keep your distance from a 5 year old if they catch it? You just can't. So once your child gets it the whole household probably will.
 
Cooper6711 said:
You'd have to ask the chief medical officer. I'm sure he has it.
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I don't know why you're sure he has it (evidence that herd immunity will develop). Nobody has it. No-one has presented evidence yet, that shows people who have had the virus and recovered, have acquired an immunity to it. In fact the opposite - there has been at least one case where a woman who had the virus, was treated, found to be negative and then became re-infected.

CoVid-19 risk of reinfection
Muttley said:
Graphs that show an exponential acceleration of infection are simple extrapolations.
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No they're not. Graphs showing the increase in many countries (especially the ones like Iran and Italy, where the initial response was characterised as lackadaisical by the WHO) show an exponential growth in actual confirmed cases, not in projected cases. See the image below.

IMG_20200315_111015.png

As the article that graph is taken from points out, it's the countries that have taken the widest range of measures the most aggressively and quickly (such as Singapore and Japan) that have had the most success in curbing the spread of the virus.

Singapore praised
 
Indeed also China in fact. Once central government stepped in and took over and shut everything down there was a time lag while those infected presented with symptoms and were diagnosed, so the cases continued to rise before dropping. The other provinces outside the two initially infected appear to have been protected.
 
Channel 4 have attained a document which states nhs staff may not be tested even if they show symptoms

This aligns to what has happened in James cook, doc has tested positive but they want all other workers to continue working even if they were on shift with him

Doc say 80% to get it meaning 7.9m May require hospital
 
What happened to the supposed patient in James cook also. There is no new cases confirmed in Stockton or Redcar. 7 in the whole of North Yorkshire. Until their is any official confirmation will file along side gossip like the patient who didn’t seemingly exist
 
Cooper, have you read the NHS guidelines?

They specifically state the following:

Stay at home if you have coronavirus symptoms
Stay at home for 7 days if you have either:
  • a high temperature – you feel hot to touch on your chest or back
  • a new, continuous cough – this means you've started coughing repeatedly
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
You do not need to contact 111 to tell them you're staying at home.
Testing for coronavirus is not needed if you're staying at home.

You may or may not have it, but you won't be included in any figures unless you reach the point where you need medical intervention and require testing.
Any figures we see now need to have the above taken into account and not be taken as definitive numbers.
 
Muttley said:
Upshot is we don't really know. Graphs that show an exponential acceleration of infection are simple extrapolations. Might happen, might not. For every "expert" saying it will there are "experts" saying it won't. What I take from it is that the real risk is to the elderly and the imuno-compromised. If you have someone in one of those groups in your family (as I do) then you need to take steps yourself to mitigate their risk. You need to keep those people safer by reducing their contact with lots of people and making sure that you are as careful as you can be not to bring teh infection to them.

Panic buying will not even help yourself. (Fukk nose what ANYONE is going to do with five hundred bog rolls and two tons of pasta?) For what it is worth I think that the government has it just about right. I suspect that we will see school and college closures some time next week and further containment through travel restrictions in the week after. I am not convinced that making these calls earlier will significantly reduce the impact of the virus.

Be safe everyone.
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Can I just say Muttley this is an excellent post and sums up everything I wanted to say.
 
I've seen most of those figures before, except for the expectation that this will last till Spring 2021. Not sure if that is wishful thinking to spread out the problem or the date they hope a vaccine will be ready.
 
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