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So they're not planning on consolidating the territory held by Russian speaking separatists on the eastern border of Ukraine and formally occupying it as they did with Crimea?

In November? Weather gets pretty difficult in this part of the world, even with modern tech, so I doubt any war is imminent.
Also there have been big, maybe even bigger, deployments and build-ups (April was the last iirc) on the border that haven’t led to invasion, despite many in the media saying it’s imminent. Also, war would almost inevitably be the end of nordstream.

The feeling outside of the kneejerk media who dip in and out of this situation seems to be that no one knows, maybe even Putin isn’t sure of his next solid move, but an imminent invasion is unlikely - not impossible of course - at least until the spring, and much could happen between now and then but Putin wants all options open including an invasion.

Personally, I really don’t think a war will play well here, Putin isn’t the popular dear leader some make him out to be, there is a significant undercurrent that could turn nasty. Ukraine has improved its military capabilities so an invasion, even successful, will be bloody, and the aftermath of holding territory would be brutal - this will not play into the Kremlin’s hands like the initial largely bloodless Crimea annexation did.
 
It's kicked off big time in Kazakhstan over the past 24 hours. Citizens and potentially 'paid actors' have taken to the streets with rioting, looting and destroying cars and buildings. Rumors that Kazakhstani citizens have armed themselves too. The price rises of fuel, gas and electric were the spark aswell as government corruption.


Not looking good.
 
It's kicked off big time in Kazakhstan over the past 24 hours. Citizens and potentially 'paid actors' have taken to the streets with rioting, looting and destroying cars and buildings. Rumors that Kazakhstani citizens have armed themselves too. The price rises of fuel, gas and electric were the spark aswell as government corruption.


Not looking good.

I lived there for 5 years. Internet has just come back on in the capital and mate there says he thinks it’ll calm down soon, here’s hoping.

There’s been an undercurrent of unrest for years as many people aren’t happy with how Nazarbayev ran the country and Tokayev is seen as a puppet. Nazarbayev might have brought stability and raised living standards after the soviet collapse, but many used to complain that the wealth of natural resources should benefit the people a heck of a lot more, they’re almost certainly right.

I think the government will be trying to end this as bloodlessly as they can to prevent another Zhanaozen, which was a massive black mark on Nazarbayev’s rule. There were various protests when I was there but they mostly petered out. @joannalillis on Twitter is pretty good with all things Kazakhstan.
 
I lived there for 5 years. Internet has just come back on in the capital and mate there says he thinks it’ll calm down soon, here’s hoping.

There’s been an undercurrent of unrest for years as many people aren’t happy with how Nazarbayev ran the country and Tokayev is seen as a puppet. Nazarbayev might have brought stability and raised living standards after the soviet collapse, but many used to complain that the wealth of natural resources should benefit the people a heck of a lot more, they’re almost certainly right.

I think the government will be trying to end this as bloodlessly as they can to prevent another Zhanaozen, which was a massive black mark on Nazarbayev’s rule. There were various protests when I was there but they mostly petered out. @joannalillis on Twitter is pretty good with all things Kazakhstan.
Yes a source on twitter had reported the government had turned off the internet and mobile phone reception. Scary how government's have that power, one wonders if every government around the world has that power?

What concerned me was the ease at which citizens have allegedly obtained guns and the deaths of security forces. Rumors also that russian agents have played a huge part in the unrest.
 
Yes a source on twitter had reported the government had turned off the internet and mobile phone reception. Scary how government's have that power, one wonders if every government around the world has that power?

What concerned me was the ease at which citizens have allegedly obtained guns and the deaths of security forces. Rumors also that russian agents have played a huge part in the unrest.

Yes they defo have the power with the internet, I think it’s still off in Almaty but it’s definitely back on in Astana/Nursultan. They block certain websites there, the Daily Mail must have upset the regime as it was blocked and Youtube was banned between certain hours when an opposition figure would do a video. There was some odd government app or add-on they were talking about that would monitor internet useage, don’t know if they ever brought it in. Here in Russia LinkedIn is blocked and Twitter is throttled, amongst others. Most people use VPN’s but Russia is even trying to control them.

Plenty of hunters in Kazakhstan as much if it is a wilderness, so there’ll be guns knocking about. Not heard about the Russian influence, I wonder what their end game would be, Kazakhstan is already pretty close economically with the Eurasian trade agreement and politically keeps Russia on side, so can’t see the benefit of them destabilising things there… that said little surprises me here anymore!
 
If you want to understand the geopolitical approaches to foreign policy of Russia and China and several other nations, you could do a lot worse than to read this book.

It is remarkable once you understand an underlying psyche relating to geography, how foreign policies repeatedly make sense. The Chinese approaches to Tibet, the Uighurs and Taiwan become as understandable as the Russian one to Ukraine.

 
If you want to understand the geopolitical approaches to foreign policy of Russia and China and several other nations, you could do a lot worse than to read this book.

It is remarkable once you understand an underlying psyche relating to geography, how foreign policies repeatedly make sense. The Chinese approaches to Tibet, the Uighurs and Taiwan become as understandable as the Russian one to Ukraine.


Seconded, fantastic book. His book on flags is great too.
 
It's kicked off big time in Kazakhstan over the past 24 hours. Citizens and potentially 'paid actors' have taken to the streets with rioting, looting and destroying cars and buildings. Rumors that Kazakhstani citizens have armed themselves too. The price rises of fuel, gas and electric were the spark aswell as government corruption.


Not looking good.
'The price rises of fuel, gas and electric were the spark aswell as government corruption. '
Bit worrying
 
It's kicked off big time in Kazakhstan over the past 24 hours. Citizens and potentially 'paid actors' have taken to the streets with rioting, looting and destroying cars and buildings. Rumors that Kazakhstani citizens have armed themselves too. The price rises of fuel, gas and electric were the spark aswell as government corruption.


Not looking good.
Rioting over rising energy prices and government corruption? Looks like the Kazakhs now what to do when faced with these things. They should come and teach us.
 
Rioting over rising energy prices and government corruption? Looks like the Kazakhs now what to do when faced with these things. They should come and teach us.
I hope not. People have been killed ST, including security officials.
 
I hope not. People have been killed ST, including security officials.
People are dying because of this government too. We need a little more direct protest like the Kazakhs are doing. It seems like the only way to escape this autocratic treachery at the moment. Fair play to them, at least they know when they are being baldy treat.
 
People are dying because of this government too. We need a little more direct protest like the Kazakhs are doing. It seems like the only way to escape this autocratic treachery at the moment. Fair play to them, at least they know when they are being baldy treat.

This situations in this country and Kazakhstan are not comparable at all. They have had it far far worse for decades and do not have the freedom we take for granted, even under a crap government. A crap government is not constant authoritarian dictatorship. Any lies, dishonesty and corruption from our elected leaders is not a patch on what has been taken from the people of Kazakhstan.

Also, we don’t know exactly what is going on in Kazakhstan, especially Almaty, there have been peaceful protests and violent ones. There has been looting, destruction and deaths and this will be spun by the regime as hooligans, terrorists and ‘outside elements’ - is it all justified anger or are there unsavoury people or groups involved? I certainly don’t know and it’ll be difficult to really learn the truth in the current fog.
 
This situations in this country and Kazakhstan are not comparable at all. They have had it far far worse for decades and do not have the freedom we take for granted, even under a crap government. A crap government is not constant authoritarian dictatorship. Any lies, dishonesty and corruption from our elected leaders is not a patch on what has been taken from the people of Kazakhstan.

Also, we don’t know exactly what is going on in Kazakhstan, especially Almaty, there have been peaceful protests and violent ones. There has been looting, destruction and deaths and this will be spun by the regime as hooligans, terrorists and ‘outside elements’ - is it all justified anger or are there unsavoury people or groups involved? I certainly don’t know and it’ll be difficult to really learn the truth in the current fog.
Maybe. but it appears to me we are sleepwalking into a dictatorship in this country too. The government is slowly but steadily removing our freedoms one by one. Some action needs to be taken before it's too late. We look on countries like Kazakhstan and practically scoff at their authoritarian regimes whilst ignoring the fact we are turning into the same. And we are a much smaller country than Kazakhstan.
 
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