Runcorn by-election odds

Blf said:
There are a couple of national groups that run web sites for OAPs to voice their thoughts and opinions. The majority of them couldn't wait for these elections to take place.
You can't take hundreds of pounds from people and expect them to blindly carry on supporting you. There's a lot of happy people today who have collectively give Labour the finger.
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I said at the time that means testing the WFA was a mistake politically.

The OAPs have proved themselves incredibly selfish and voting to pull the ladder up after themselves over the last 10 years or so. They were never as a collective going to suck it up for the good of the country.

Big mis-step from labour in my opinion.
 
Decent_Left said:
Here's a thought about the impact of Reform "capturing" County Councils. Just nipped down to the count (my district is covering 7 of the County wards) and it turns out until earlier this morning several of the likely winning Reform candidates had never even met each other before, so add that up to 7 different districts feeding into one county and they will be a shambles at the mercy of the Officers.

First thought is great. Second thought is oh god. Its going to be like this throughout the country
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They will be a mixture of extreme right-wing ex-Tories and people who haven't done it before. If you think back to when the BNP got a few councillors back in the 90s and 00s, they were all kicked out at the next election because they were absolutely useless as councillors as well as being racist.
 
Blf said:
There are a couple of national groups that run web sites for OAPs to voice their thoughts and opinions. The majority of them couldn't wait for these elections to take place.
You can't take hundreds of pounds from people and expect them to blindly carry on supporting you. There's a lot of happy people today who have collectively give Labour the finger.
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I would add that many seem to think the money given to them for their energy bills, is their right for living to the age of say 70. Many of them actually reached old age because they have lived all their lives with the NHS, decent State schools, good further education colleges, publicly funded housing. a country with a safety net for the poor, particularly in period 1945 to 1979. A World laid down by the Labour Government of 1945, after the despair and poverty of the 1920s and 30s.
 
SuperStu said:
I don't think thats the case. Think the reform voters are the ones that want trade unionists or environmental protestors thrown in the tower if they ever make someone a minute late to work.

Economic left wingers have gone Green or stay at home.
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Reform profit from the stream of boats crossing the English Channel every week. All of the political parties say they want and WILL stop them (including Labour). For some reason people believe farage and reform. If Labour can solve this one issue they will secure the next GE
 
Colgates_shaving_foam said:
I said at the time that means testing the WFA was a mistake politically.

The OAPs have proved themselves incredibly selfish and voting to pull the ladder up after themselves over the last 10 years or so. They were never as a collective going to suck it up for the good of the country.

Big mis-step from labour in my opinion.
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Doing something so small for the political kicking was the issue. They should have gone much further. They achieved very little in terms of savings for the backlash that it caused. Scrapping the triple lock has to be done because by definition it is unsustainable. It has achieved its purpose of bringing the state pension up and it should now be pegged to a % of the median wage. Removing the exemption of paying NI from pensions is another possibility. That's an easy way of increasing income without breaking the promises around raising tax for working people and it is progressive so the poorest will not pay much but people with big pension incomes will contribute a bit more. Sure, there will be some anger from the people that don't vote for them anyway but that isn't a problem.

The biggest issue facing working people and especially young working people is housing and 75% of the 65+ age group own their own home so are unaffected by the massive rise in house prices vs wages. The increase in the interest rate since my last fix has meant that the total extra mortgage payments I will have to make over my 5 year fixed period is double what my parents paid for their house and I'm lucky because I have a house. The people 10-20 years younger than me may never be able to afford one at all so something has to be done to redistribute the wealth we have tied up in unproductive assets.
 
Wiseman_Vaughn said:
Reform profit from the stream of boats crossing the English Channel every week. All of the political parties say they want and WILL stop them (including Labour). For some reason people believe farage and reform. If Labour can solve this one issue they will secure the next GE
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Absolutely spot on. End the illegal migration over the Channel and Reform are done. Proper deterrents required rather than the bizarre Rwanda and smash the gangs slogans we have had to date.
 
The key is will the Reform Councillors produce a Council that is more efficient. They can freeze council tax for one year, but only if services are cut or debt rises.

My worry is they will start keen and then realise its more complex in real life then they thought and then give up.
 
ThePrisoner said:
I just saw on twitter that Darren Grimes was elected to Durham Council. If it's true then god help you.
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He was being interviewed on the news and was his usual nauseous self.

The one glimmer of light in this Reform driven bloodbath is that by doing better than they'd ever imagined, they'll soon shoot themselves in the foot when they're lightly / unvetted Councillors leather masks slip.
 
Reform are just spivs and chancers jumping more and more on the populist band wagon.
I have not lived in the Boro for almost 30 years. It was on the decline when I left - which is why I felt forced to leave to find work. I had recently graduated as an Engineer but British Steel and ICI was decimated with no work for me.
What I have seen happen is a totally disproportionate amount of immigrants being housed in the Boro - some of my mates/family feel like they are being inundated. Add that to the disgusting under investment in public services by government and government and you have the ideal situation for the populists to take advantage of.
Governments have run the area into the ground and used the low housing prices and rents to house immigrants and , supposedly, asylum seekers.

Reform are gathering more and more support. The tory party will not try to beat them, they will try to join forces, I am certain. Farridge will head a Tory/Reform coaliition in the next parliament.
 
Wiseman_Vaughn said:
Rightly or wrongly that would never fly with the electorate
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I’m not so sure if it was done correctly.

I think that the English population appreciate that we need to take refugees and when it has been mentioned on the TV before (Iraq, Ukraine etc) no one seems to kick up a fuss. If we were able somehow (like closer ties with the EU and paying France a load of cash or give them something) to base an immigration centre in France and process applications there it surely would reduce crossings.

If you had such a legal route them surely any people arriving on our shores could be just taken back to France for processing. If they passed then great, over they come. If they fail we return them to country of origin or something like that.

It would take a lot of politicking and a lot of money but surely it is doable.
 
Redwurzel said:
The key is will the Reform Councillors produce a Council that is more efficient. They can freeze council tax for one year, but only if services are cut or debt rises.

My worry is they will start keen and then realise its more complex in real life then they thought and then give up.
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After observing some of them for a couple of hours this lunchtime and the knowing what happens when previously large groups of UKIP get together, in 4 years time there will be more micro groups of wing nuts than ever before as they all start falling out over purity tests etc - the Tories will swallow up a few of these groups btw, and basically effective county politics for the next 4 years is ****ed.
 
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