Roadmap may be affected - Indian variant

Cheers Devon, Bear, interesting thoughts. My interest comes form machine leaning only and I tend to feed all data and make no presumptive conclusions. You are tight Bear that you need a lot of data, 10's of thousands of rows for training a bayes net to any decent level so you are right with the data we have available it is abacus ratherr than deep blue.

What a bayes net does really well though is when you can rule out a factor, the human brain continues to use that bit of data, orphaned data essentially, to make decisions. A bayes net doesn't do that. A really simple example would be someone brought up as catholic who later renounces that religion, will still have orphaned assumptions based on the upbringing, for example, sex outside of marriage is wrong. They are likely to maintain that viewpoint despite the fact that the underlying reason is removed from their decision making.
 
Ziggy said:
Agree, but it’s even more awful that this potential scenario was avoidable. Again. Looks like we are going to have to do it all again for a fourth time.
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At the minute Ziggy, I am not sure there is any evidence that the variant is any more deadly for those vaccinated. I think it was Randy who posted a heat map of vaccinations and they correlate really well with spikes in infections.
 
Laughing said:
At the minute Ziggy, I am not sure there is any evidence that the variant is any more deadly for those vaccinated. I think it was Randy who posted a heat map of vaccinations and they correlate really well with spikes in infections.
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Hope yourself and Randy are right.
 
Liamo said:
I'm not aware of any vaccine, except the flu vaccine, which is continually modified.*

Which others do you know of?

*In terms of being changed to combat a new variety of the virus.
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Which vaccines do you know that are not modified?
 
Guys, I have made the point before on one of these Covid threads. Risk is made up of at least two factors;

The likelihood of an event occurring and
The severity if it does occur.

Therefore it is the risk of catching the virus vs the likelihood of either hospitalisation or dying.

The first is managed by lockdown, masks, washing hands etc.
The second by vaccination, assuming that the vaccination protects us against the new variant, or the effects are mild, Then the older populations will be protected, I hope it isn't worse for younger people.
In my view there would be little point in going for a national lockdown again, maybe local ones in areas were either ethnicity is high in terms of Indian communities and if they haven't had vaccinations.
 
Spoke to someone last night whose daughter works for one of the hotels for people being quarantined. Her daughter said they have people staying that have come from Red Zone countries to work in this country. As they are here for work they are staying for their period of quarantine but are allowed out during the day to go to their work. While I have no reason to doubt what she is saying surely we are not that stupid with our quarantine restrictions.
 
asredastheycome said:
Spoke to someone last night whose daughter works for one of the hotels for people being quarantined. Her daughter said they have people staying that have come from Red Zone countries to work in this country. As they are here for work they are staying for their period of quarantine but are allowed out during the day to go to their work. While I have no reason to doubt what she is saying surely we are not that stupid with our quarantine restrictions.
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You're under estimating UK stupidity.
 
asredastheycome said:
Spoke to someone last night whose daughter works for one of the hotels for people being quarantined. Her daughter said they have people staying that have come from Red Zone countries to work in this country. As they are here for work they are staying for their period of quarantine but are allowed out during the day to go to their work. While I have no reason to doubt what she is saying surely we are not that stupid with our quarantine restrictions.
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So if that’s true it isn’t quarantine.
 
Looks like Blow Job got it wrong again. He's allowed 20,000 in from India, on trust that they will self isolate at home. When the average UK citizens have not been able to travel outside our own locality. What a serial fluffer.
 
masquesmog said:
So it looks like the flu virus is just different from measles. Presumably Covid behaves more like a flu virus than a measles one.
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Only to a limited extent. It's important to note the differences between them.

For a start, they are from completely different virus families. Flu is a negative-sense RNA virus that consists of two major sub-families (A&B) with over a dozen different strains, each requiring their own separate vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense RNA virus with no sub-families and no separate strains requiring different vaccines (as yet), only minor variants that are largely dealt with by the same vaccines that were developed for the original, wild-type virus.

Flu is estimated to be 5 times more mutagenic than the coronavirus.

Based on my understanding, there's no real close comparison between the flu viruses and this novel coronavirus, other than some of their initial effects on the respiratory system being similar.
 
Liamo said:
Only to a limited extent. It's important to note the differences between them.

For a start, they are from completely different virus families. Flu is a negative-sense RNA virus that consists of two major sub-families (A&B) with over a dozen different strains, each requiring their own separate vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense RNA virus with no sub-families and no separate strains requiring different vaccines (as yet), only minor variants that are largely dealt with by the same vaccines that were developed for the original, wild-type virus.

Flu is estimated to be 5 times more mutagenic than the coronavirus.

Based on my understanding, there's no real close comparison between the flu viruses and this novel coronavirus, other than some of their initial effects on the respiratory system being similar.
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all true.

I guess I was responding to a discussion around "not all viruses are equal". Some mutations of some viruses require vaccine tweaks; other don't.
 
Small Town: Silly me for trying to post some positivity on here. I’ll leave all you negative souls to it 👍

Randy: I’m jabbed up with minimal side-effects, but even if they had been bad, it’s for the greater good.

I’ll stick to footie posts in future as the bickering on here over anything political or Covid-based is nuts. It’s definitely got worse since we have all been cooped up.

Stay happy and healthy everyone. Don’t forget to be kind to one another and Up the Boro!
 
weemoby said:
Small Town: Silly me for trying to post some positivity on here. I’ll leave all you negative souls to it 👍

Randy: I’m jabbed up with minimal side-effects, but even if they had been bad, it’s for the greater good.

I’ll stick to footie posts in future as the bickering on here over anything political or Covid-based is nuts. It’s definitely got worse since we have all been cooped up.

Stay happy and healthy everyone. Don’t forget to be kind to one another and Up the Boro!
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Yeah I'm hoping to get lucky with the side effects too Moby. I'll hopefully arrange it for when I have my days off just in case.

Keep posting the positivity, don't let them get you down, there are many more who appreciate it more than you think.
 
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