Realistically how long can he keep his job?

Zoophonic said:
I am absolutely convinced that Government strategists (Cummins) wants to keep Johnson away from public speaking in this crisis as much as possible and certainly not to expose him to a Q & A.
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That's definitely the case, it's the same with Priti Patel, they're both liabilities if exposed to any kind of scrutiny. It's not ideal when we're talking about the PM and Home Secretary.
 
how long can he stay in power? probably 5 years unless he gives up. hes still got the majority of support from the brexiters, he got it done dont you know
 
I cannot see Johnson surviving this. The tories will need a sacrificial lamb (interesting use of the term, I know) and you have to blame the man at the top, don't you?
 
Laughing said:
I cannot see Johnson surviving this. The tories will need a sacrificial lamb (interesting use of the term, I know) and you have to blame the man at the top, don't you?
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I’ve thought for a while, even going back to Johnson’s shenanigans when he became Tory leader that the grandees of the Tory Party would not like what he was up to, even his personal life will not sit well with them. Away from get Brexit done he appears to be embarrassingly clueless and Kier Starmer is now brutally exposing him at every turn.It is a matter of time before he is eased out, maybe on ‘health’ grounds but it will come.
 
Another 4 years of Johnson and if history is anything to go by, another 5 years on top of that either with or without Johnson as overturning an 80 seat majority is unheard of in contemporary UK elections.

I seem to recall back in 2010 that the Tories wouldn't last 5 minutes in a coalition and win any future election. Red Ed and Corbyn were touted as future PMs by the majority on this board, but this board represents nothing like the political landscape and opinion polls elsewhere in the country.

It appears that some comments in this thread are more hope than expectation. His own cabinet voted him in last summer and all the new Tory MPs will follow as sheep. Johnson ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
 
Soutra said:
You can't expect anyone to communicate in 15 minutes what is clearly going to be a complex and protracted set of guidelines.

Everyone seems to think he should have addressed their own personal set of circumstances, but that clearly isn't possible.

The 50 page doc being issued later will provide more detail, but even then there will be details, circumstances and scenarios that an individual is going to have to interpret for themselves.
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Then why trail he's going to do that, or at the very least say more details to follow from xyz? We know he doesn't do detail, see his shambolic period as foreign secretary...that can be fine if you clearly delegate but he doesn't seem to be able to do that. To paraphrase Johnson 'the ball has come out of the back of the scrum and he doesnt know whether to kick or pass (or whether it's a deam!))
 
mitch_at_merseyside said:
Another 4 years of Johnson and if history is anything to go by, another 5 years on top of that either with or without Johnson as overturning an 80 seat majority is unheard of in contemporary UK elections.

I seem to recall back in 2010 that the Tories wouldn't last 5 minutes in a coalition and win any future election. Red Ed and Corbyn were touted as future PMs by the majority on this board, but this board represents nothing like the political landscape and opinion polls elsewhere in the country.

It appears that some comments in this thread are more hope than expectation. His own cabinet voted him in last summer and all the new Tory MPs will follow as sheep. Johnson ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
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Ah but these times are not normal. After the crises of the Second World War we saw the incumbent Winston Churchill (seen to have been a hero) lose 100 seats in a 12% swing to Labour.
 
Cardiffdaffs said:
Ah but these times are not normal. After the crises of the Second World War we saw the incumbent Winston Churchill (seen to have been a hero) lose 100 seats in a 12% swing to Labour.
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Granted. But 1945 Britain is very different as the one today. Either way, there will be another 4 years of Conservative rule over this country. Even if we ended up (God forbid) with the highest number of cases and fatalities in the world, I still can't see any Conservative MP even contemplating the idea of replacing him.

Labour have a lot of hard work to do in the next four years, Starmer has got off to a good start but then again so did Red Ed and Corbyn.
 
I'd expect him to stick around. If he is polling badly a year or so before the next election he might come under pressure to step down but there's no reason for the Tories to change anything before then. He has surrounded himself with non-entities that owe him, so I can't see any pressure coming from inside the cabinet. If there is an inquiry that reflects badly upon him he will either suppress it or ignore it.
 
Laughing said:
I cannot see Johnson surviving this. The tories will need a sacrificial lamb (interesting use of the term, I know) and you have to blame the man at the top, don't you?
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I think you will find Matt Hancock is being lined up for that particular gig (along with a few scientists too once its all over).

Politicians never fall on their sword these days, mores the pity. It will take a lot more deaths before Johnson is eased out, although to be fair to him, his latest ill thought through plans might well achieve that. The Mr Burns of the Government, Michael Gove, will be working up an anti Boris blue print though as we speak, so watch this space.
 
There were many who thought the bigger plank of the two of them, Trump,wouldnt last 5 mins either.....
 
coluka said:
I think you will find Matt Hancock is being lined up for that particular gig (along with a few scientists too once its all over).

Politicians never fall on their sword these days, mores the pity. It will take a lot more deaths before Johnson is eased out, although to be fair to him, his latest ill thought through plans might well achieve that. The Mr Burns of the Government, Michael Gove, will be working up an anti Boris blue print though as we speak, so watch this space.
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if Gove became PM I would genuinely leave the country. I haven't yet discussed this with my wife and family, but if that, albeit both hideous and unlikely, scenario were to present itself, I couldn't remain here. The horrible irony is, the most likely place I would go (based on where my wife is from) is the US. There would be some free and frank discussions to be had about avoiding both abominations and moving to either Spain or Italy
 
mitch_at_merseyside said:
Another 4 years of Johnson and if history is anything to go by, another 5 years on top of that either with or without Johnson as overturning an 80 seat majority is unheard of in contemporary UK elections.

I seem to recall back in 2010 that the Tories wouldn't last 5 minutes in a coalition and win any future election. Red Ed and Corbyn were touted as future PMs by the majority on this board, but this board represents nothing like the political landscape and opinion polls elsewhere in the country.

It appears that some comments in this thread are more hope than expectation. His own cabinet voted him in last summer and all the new Tory MPs will follow as sheep. Johnson ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
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This is very true. Most people live in echo chambers. They see/hear/read what backs up their own opinion whether that is their choice of newspaper, forum or social group. They then don't discuss/mix with other people that think differently and they gang up and frighten away anyone that disagrees with them until they can return to their mutual backslapping. It is a large cause of the division that we see in politics and usually ends in polarisation where people pick sides instead of being able to look at each situation independently. Just look at this board at times where only negative topics about the government are posted and most of them have someone calling out Cooper to defend it.
 
boromike85 said:
This is very true. Most people live in echo chambers. They see/hear/read what backs up their own opinion whether that is their choice of newspaper, forum or social group. They then don't discuss/mix with other people that think differently and they gang up and frighten away anyone that disagrees with them until they can return to their mutual backslapping. It is a large cause of the division that we see in politics and usually ends in polarisation where people pick sides instead of being able to look at each situation independently. Just look at this board at times where only negative topics about the government are posted and most of them have someone calling out Cooper to defend it.
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Boromike that is, of course, partially true. But only partially.

Interestingly enough, google, youtube and other social media platforms have made the situation worse, as algorithms push us toward content we would "like to see" which can re-inforce already held opinions.

There are still plenty of people who try to take a balanced view, probably on both sides of the political divide. The problem with the current situation is it will highlight, probably wrongly, that political divide because people are genuinely angry. Folks are dying, and that creates a very emotional environment, as did brexit.

I would suggest that in more business-as-usual times the divide would not appear so extreme.

I think you also need to factor in the tories are a bunch of (unts.
 
Boromike you have pretty much nailed it with that post. If you could go back say 4 years and pull out the political predictions you would see that FMTTM is a graveyard of them. You have the Brexit (remain) ones and then subsequent belief of a 2nd referendum threads all proved incorrect. You have trump not winning the election, not lasting a year, then 2 years, then he’s done for now so n so is giving evidence etc etc. All proved incorrect. Then you have Johnson and the election. He won’t win the leadership, campaign, won’t win the election it’s 2017 all over again, the polls are close etc and it was nothing like that, all incorrect.

Johnson will be going nowhere. Whatever your political beliefs or what you think of him (majority of the country don’t care about the day to day political world) for people with little interest in politics he is the equivalent of a political rock star which makes him very popular and the tories know that.

At the moment Starmer has been in a few weeks and already predictions on here he’s tearing Johnson apart and he’s fantastic. That might be true but the majority of the country wouldn’t know who starmer was if you showed them a picture, they know Johnson though and when it comes to voting popularism is a huge player. Nobody watches PMQs so fawning over how good or bad someone performs Wong make a jot of difference in reality which I think gets lost on most on here as mike points out perfectly
 
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