Promotion Mini-league

[Nano]

i think anyone from Birmingham up could win 2,3 games and all of a sudden feel they have an outside chance of the play offs as there is a lot of football still to play

Not a chance. If they win their next 3 games then the teams above them will average about 5 points as well so they wouldn't even be in the top half. The league looks tight but jumping above 12 teams needs a sustained run of 10 games at over 2ppg. To get to 70 points which is what is needed as a minimum to make the playoffs would require over 2ppg for the rest of the season.

I said the same thing about us 6 or 7 games ago. We were on an incredible run and it would require it continuing just to get to 70 points by the end of the season and I wasn't sure if it was realistic. I said we'd have to become one of the best teams in the division and at the time I was sceptical. That run has continued and I'm delighted to be proved wrong. I'd still expect us to have a bad run at some point because it is the championship so I wouldn't be as quick to be looking up at Sheff Utd as I would be down and making sure we just make the playoffs which I now think we will.

Conversely to my 1st point. It would far be easier for us to close a 10 point gap to Sheff Utd than for Birmingham to close a 10 point gap to the playoffs. We can do that just by Sheff Utd imploding but Birmingham would need 12 teams to implode and that's just impossible. I don't think anyone below Norwich have much of a chance of being close to the playoffs.

 

[Ironops]

This is the current prediction from fivethirtyeight.com

	TEAM RATING	AVG. SIMULATED SEASON	END-OF-SEASON PROBABILITIES
TEAM	SPI	OFF.	DEF.	GOAL DIFF.	PTS.	EVERY POSITION	RELEGATED	MAKE PROM. PLAYOFFS	PROMOTED	WIN CHAMPIONSHIP
Burnley65 pts	56.5	1.5	1.0	+42	96		—	2%	98%	80%
Sheffield Utd58 pts	55.2	1.5	1.1	+32	87		<1%	22%	80%	18%
Middlesbrough48 pts	52.9	1.4	1.1	+17	74		<1%	59%	22%	<1%
Luton Town48 pts	49.1	1.3	1.1	+11	73		<1%	54%	17%	<1%
West Brom44 pts	54.9	1.4	1.0	+17	73		<1%	55%	22%	<1%
Millwall43 pts	51.3	1.3	1.1	+11	71		<1%	45%	16%	<1%
Norwich42 pts	51.1	1.5	1.2	+12	69		<1%	37%	12%	<1%
Watford45 pts	47.1	1.3	1.2	+6	69		<1%	32%	9%	<1%
Sunderland42 pts	45.3	1.3	1.3	+10	66		<1%	23%	6%	<1%

 

[BoroMart]

Not a chance. If they win their next 3 games then the teams above them will average about 5 points as well so they wouldn't even be in the top half.

agreed Brum, have no chance, and I'd go so far as to say its highly unrealistic for anyone from Preston down to make it. They have to win against those sides listed above. Hull for example W1 D4 L6, they're not going to catch up. Preston, have a decent record vs the top teams at home, but they haven't got many at home left, it's away games largely now.

 

[BoroMart]

This is the current prediction from fivethirtyeight.com

TEAM	SPI	OFF.	DEF.	GOAL DIFF.	PTS.	EVERY POSITION	RELEGATED	MAKE PROM. PLAYOFFS	PROMOTED	WIN CHAMPIONSHIP
	TEAM RATING	AVG. SIMULATED SEASON	END-OF-SEASON PROBABILITIES
Burnley65 pts	56.5	1.5	1.0	+42	96		—	2%	98%	80%
Sheffield Utd58 pts	55.2	1.5	1.1	+32	87		<1%	22%	80%	18%
Middlesbrough48 pts	52.9	1.4	1.1	+17	74		<1%	59%	22%	<1%
Luton Town48 pts	49.1	1.3	1.1	+11	73		<1%	54%	17%	<1%
West Brom44 pts	54.9	1.4	1.0	+17	73		<1%	55%	22%	<1%
Millwall43 pts	51.3	1.3	1.1	+11	71		<1%	45%	16%	<1%
Norwich42 pts	51.1	1.5	1.2	+12	69		<1%	37%	12%	<1%
Watford45 pts	47.1	1.3	1.2	+6	69		<1%	32%	9%	<1%
Sunderland42 pts	45.3	1.3	1.3	+10	66		<1%	23%	6%	<1%

I wouldn't argue much with that, maybe Millwall to fall short with Norwich or Watford pipping them would be my bet

 

[indeedido]

This is the current prediction from fivethirtyeight.com

	TEAM RATING	AVG. SIMULATED SEASON	END-OF-SEASON PROBABILITIES
TEAM	SPI	OFF.	DEF.	GOAL DIFF.	PTS.	EVERY POSITION	RELEGATED	MAKE PROM. PLAYOFFS	PROMOTED	WIN CHAMPIONSHIP
Burnley65 pts	56.5	1.5	1.0	+42	96		—	2%	98%	80%
Sheffield Utd58 pts	55.2	1.5	1.1	+32	87		<1%	22%	80%	18%
Middlesbrough48 pts	52.9	1.4	1.1	+17	74		<1%	59%	22%	<1%
Luton Town48 pts	49.1	1.3	1.1	+11	73		<1%	54%	17%	<1%
West Brom44 pts	54.9	1.4	1.0	+17	73		<1%	55%	22%	<1%
Millwall43 pts	51.3	1.3	1.1	+11	71		<1%	45%	16%	<1%
Norwich42 pts	51.1	1.5	1.2	+12	69		<1%	37%	12%	<1%
Watford45 pts	47.1	1.3	1.2	+6	69		<1%	32%	9%	<1%
Sunderland42 pts	45.3	1.3	1.3	+10	66		<1%	23%	6%	<1%

I will be stunned if Sheff U end up 13 points above us.
I will be equally stunned if we only end up with 74 points and West Brom with only 73.

 

[Marvanelli]

We're on 48 points and we have 16 games left.

To get to 74 we would need to go at a rate of 1.625pts per game.
If we do the standard '2 points per game' (which is normally more than enough to finish top 2 over the season), we would finish on 80 points.

Even then, I don't think that would be enough to nick 2nd.

2021/22 - 3rd was 82pts
2020/21 - 3rd was 87pts
2019/20 - 3rd was 81pts
2018/19 - 3rd was 83pts
2017/18 - 3rd was 88 pts
2016/17 - 3rd was 85 pts
2015/16 - 3rd was 89pts (year we went up on 89pts)

Sheff Utd currently on 58pts and you'd think they need around 25pts from 17 games.

They may stumble over the line, but I have no doubt they'll get over the line. They've done the hard job already getting 58pts from 29 games.

 

[BaronSmoggie]

When did we start adding toilet paper quality to the list. Although I am quite happy to see Boro as highest, I don't see the relevance?

 

[Boroblade]

So we are at that point where the 6 pointers come to the fore. I reckon there are 9 teams that will be in the mix for play offs promotion. Yes Burnley are already up effectively. But I don't think Sheff Utd are there yet.

View attachment 52202

Key points:

- Burnleys record against the other top sides phenomenal.
- Sheff Utd unbeaten against the top sides.....however, they've played the least games against the top sides, and onlt 3 away games against the top teams. So expect this to drop. They've got the most difficult run in statistically. Without their form changing, expect us to catch up 5 or 6 points on them, purely due to the fixtures they have left
- I'd rule Millwall and Norwich out of play off success due to their real poor form against good sides
- Luton have done equally as well as us against the top sides, but they've got 2 more difficult games than us in the run in
- Statistically we are realistically the only side that can catch Sheff Utd.


Lets see how this pans out over the next 3 or 4 weeks.

Blades wont go up automatically been saying it for weeks - Boro will pip us not played well in while, not many people confident at all then will blow the play offs typical Blades.

 

[BoroMart]

Just one update this week: Watford 1-1 Blackburn

It brings Watfords form much closer to ours this season against the promotion chasing sides and Blackburns too. It was a big game for Watford, only have one big side coming to Vicarage Road (West Brom net home game) It's two pronged this one, they've got a lot of easy winnable home games, but their away form will be severely tested as they go to 4 promotion rivals needing wins.

Blackburn, play offs is still in their hands with 4 big teams going to Ewood.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

Sunderland stats inflated by robbing us as well.

What about Forss’ dive at Blackpool? Or the numbers of times Jones dived and won free kicks and penalties before officials cottoned onto it?

 

[BoroMart]

Update after this weekends fixtures


Watford have great form against the top sides, in fact, second best, but they don't welcome any of the top sides to Bramall Lane and still have three tough away games left. I think they'll cement their place int eh play offs.

Burnley - running away with it.

Millwall, West Brom and Blackburn will all have it in their own hands, as they welcome 4 top sides to their home ground. But West Brom haven't beaten a top side at the Hawthorns this season. Could be their Achilles heel.
Sheff United and Luton have the hardest run ins, Watford and Boro the easiest.



Summary:
- Burnley will continue to run away with it, and maybe finish 15-20 points clear.
- Second place is very much on with Sheff Uniteds hard run in.
- Play offs, 5 wins (maybe 6) in 13 games will probably guarantee a play off spot for us due to the other teams taking points off each other.
- Boro and Watford have one foot in the play offs for me. Lets hope the other foot is in the auto promotion spot
- I think two of Blackburn, Sunderland and Millwall will take the other spots looking at the fixtures.

 

[BoroMart]

Promotion Mini-league update, good point for Millwall last night but predictable, they don't lose at home to the top sides.

Huge 7 days coming up for the promotion shakeup. This week could see Sheff United dragged back into the play off conversation, or they could break free again if we fail to win. We could effectively cement our finish above West Brom with a win with a 15 point lead if we win, on top of that they are rubbish against the top 10 and still have another 4 to play after us. So I'm hopeful.

Sheff United vs Watford is huge on Saturday, Sheff United's form and confidence has dropped but Watford are poor away to the top sides, think they might just get a draw in this one though.

Next Tuesday is Luton vs Millwall, Millwall have picked up again I can see a draw in this one and that will suit us as both sides drop points.

 

[Marvanelli]

Got an update on this mini-league @BoroMart ?